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    Can The Twins Ship The Sheriff to Sacramento?

    Cody Pirkl

    By Cody Pirkl

    As the Twins navigate a difficult payroll situation, shedding salary remains an unfortunate offseason priority. Could the Sacramento Athletics become a surprising option for the Twins to pass off some salary?

    Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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    The Athletics are reportedly in a polar opposite position to the Twins this offseason. They risk a player union complaint if they don’t add enough payroll. While they could spend this money on free agents (as they recently did with Luis Severino), they also become a target for teams like the Twins to talk to on the trade market. Chris Paddack, in particular, seems like a name that could be involved in a win-win deal.

    For the Twins, it would be dealing from the strength of their roster. They’re in a good spot with the rotation, between Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, younger arms such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews, and the top prospects waiting in St. Paul. After an up-and-down season, it’s unlikely Paddack will claim a rotation spot on Opening Day. Dealing him in the offseason would save $7.5 million and allow Paddack to remain a starter, which he certainly wants.

    From the A’s perspective, Paddack is the exact kind of addition they should be trying to make. Their MLB club has plenty of room in their rotation, and their farm system lacks any immediate impact starting pitching. While Paddack has his question marks regarding injury, one could argue that he still carries a fair bit of upside another year removed from Tommy John surgery.

    While the A’s may not care about Paddack winning them games every fifth day, he becomes a valuable potential trade chip for them once again at the deadline if he’s able to stay on the field. The Twins likely won’t ask for much in return for taking Paddack’s money off their books, and the A’s could quickly recoup whatever they gave up (and then some) if they flip Paddack to another contender amid a strong season. If Paddack doesn’t pan out, they’ve at least added $7.5 million to their payroll to help shield themselves from the ire of the players' union.

    In an ideal world, the Twins let Paddack’s contract play out, given the upside argument one could make. His 2025 salary will likely prove to be a bargain by the time the free-agent market plays out, but the Twins are in a spot where potentially getting a deal doesn’t matter, because the front office doesn’t have the money to make needed upgrades elsewhere.

    Paddack wouldn’t bring the same trade return as somebody like Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober, but trading him would leave less of a hole in the roster while shedding more money. It also stands to reason that Paddack’s trade return, while likely to be uninspiring, would bring more than that of a trade of someone like Christian Vázquez who may even require prospects on the back end to convince another team to pay that money.

    The list of teams willing to take on money this winter will likely be short, with several clubs similarly dealing with changes in broadcast revenues. The A’s have emerged as a prime target to dump some money, and the Twins should check in on doing so. Do you agree?

    Cody Pirkl is a Twins Writer for Twins Daily and lover of all things baseball.
    Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter: CodyPirkl

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    LA Vikes Fan

    LA Vikes Fan 8,116

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    With the skyrocketing price of SP, it makes financial sense to keep Paddack on the roster as a possible SP4/5 or heater out of the BP.  He would essentially be pitching on a make good contract, and if he starts the season well the Twins could look at an extension on a player they know (which is very big in Minnesota territory).

    On the other hand...

    With the skyrocketing price of SP, moving Paddack makes sense.  The Twins have a relatively inexpensive veteran they could move to a team needing a SP3/4/5 and probably get a decent return.  For a team looking to keep costs down, this makes financial sense, especially if they feel Festa or Matthews is ready.

    Seeing both sides of the argument, I would be fine with either decision.

    I'm right with you. It all depends on what the team thinks about Festa and Matthews. Personally, to me it's all about Festa. Matthews should go back to AAA. He may be ready by mid-season, it may be next year but he is no higher than the #7 starter on the current roster. Festa doesn't really have anything left to prove at the AAA level and I would like him to get 20-25 starts or more at the MLB level in 2025. Also, Paddack is worth more than a salary dump. He's worth a 15-20 rated prospect from a solid system plus a flyer. Given that pitching is always more important and more expensive than hitting, particularly starting pitching, Paddack is worth more than dumping his salary to sign an aging 1B. Before you say the payroll has to be reduced, remember that it doesn't have to be reduced NOW, it only has to be reduced by Opening Day. 

    I think it's all timing. Go to ST with the starters we have. IF they are all healthy we can make a trade then to a team looking for SP. We will probably get a better return then. However, if one of our top 4 starters is injured having Paddack will be critical in the early going.     

    FWIW, I don't anything is going to happen pending potential sale talks. There's no reason to reduce the pool of buyers by either adding payroll or stripping the team until you know the likely buyer and what that buyer wants to do. I'm still hoping that a random billionaire who wants in to pros sports will buy the team and try to buy a championship. 

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,949

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

    It's like folding rather than doubling down. 

    When someone calls my crappy bluff and I know I have a losing hand ..... I fold. 

    Good money doesn't need to be thrown away just because one already spent poorly. It's a choice.

    My main concern is that Paddack or Dobnak or some other guy takes away innings or a roster spot from a guy who we already know is better and promises much more. I'm thinking all of SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Raya would be better and yes I know these guys are inexperienced or have yet to pitch for the Twins.

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,949

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

    Its short sighted to start shipping established pitchers out of the organization when we are in win now mode.

    I agree with this statement. If a trade makes the team better any player should be available to deal.

    If we are talking about Chris Paddack, please explain how he is established any more than Randy Dobnak or just by himself and not as a comparison to RD.

    jmlease1

    jmlease1 15,285

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    I agree with this statement. If a trade makes the team better any player should be available to deal.

    If we are talking about Chris Paddack, please explain how he is established any more than Randy Dobnak or just by himself and not as a comparison to RD.

    Because Paddack had a rookie season where he made 26 starts, threw 140 innings and had an ERA+ of 126. Maybe he'll never get back to that because of all the injuries, but you've seen flashes with the twins that make it easy to talk yourself into it. And the floor is pretty good on Paddack: even if he's never back to where he was, he can still eat up innings as a 5th starter or shift to the bullpen. At $7.5M, that's not crazy money at all and the upside is pretty good.

    Since the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlads make money so tight this season and I think the upside for Festa is high...I'd take the risk and move on from Paddack, especially with Matthews, Raya, lewis, Adams, Morris, etc waiting in the wings. If I'm a team in need of a cheap starter to take the 5th slot, I'd probably be interested in taking a flyer on Paddack for the role on a 1 year deal for $7.5M. If I'm the A's, had bad starters last season and need to spend more or get cut out of revenue sharing...this might be a bargain!

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,949

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

    Because Paddack had a rookie season where he made 26 starts, threw 140 innings and had an ERA+ of 126.

    In 2019 I wanted the Twins to make an attempt to acquire Paddack. 2019 was quite a while ago though. People need to put The Sherrif in the same bucket as Nelson Cruz - good memories of a time now in the past.

    Heiny

    Heiny 890

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    With the market for starting pitching and the extremely high salaries they're getting in free agency,  I think maybe Paddack at 7.5M is a bargain.  He's had another whole offseason to recoup and get stronger.  I think he's worth keeping for now but if they do decide to trade him he should be worth a pretty decent package.  I wouldn't just give him up for a salary dump.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,263

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I wouldn't mind keeping Paddack for the same reasons I believe he's of value to someone else, he's still under 30yo, he's further removed from his last surgery so his velocity should be more consistent, and the feel for his previously excellent changeup will hopefully be back. $7.5M for 1 yr for a 5th starter with upside is a relative bargain.

    But there's no way to make any sort of change to the roster, even small ones on the margin, unless someone is moved. I think Festa showed last season that he's ready. I had thought of Paddack as an option for Boston, or Baltimore, amongst others. I hadn't thought about the A's, but this makes sense.

    It would be nice if they had room for a defense first, experienced catcher at $10M that they might flip to someone in 2025 if/when an injury were to happen.

    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 6,083

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Correct. It was an iron-clad, insurmountable defense to what was essentially a complaint about the Pohlad's running a crazy low payroll.

    While I canceled my season tickets with no intent to renew, and I've been highly critical of the Pohlad's 180* shift in how they planned to run the team, I'm not delusional in regard to the team's spending. The Twins have ranked from #16-20 in MLB since like 2017. They haven't been in the bottom 5 for over 20 years.

    Fans griping about grievances should change the teams they follow to Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Miami. Those are teams who have payrolls literally $100MM LOWER than the Twins in recent years.

    The comment was tongue-in-cheek.

    Yes, the Twins aren't Pittsburgh, and they will outspend KC and Cleveland within their own division, but if we're pointing to extremes, I'll say it again, that's not a strong defense. 

    Fatbat

    Fatbat 3,179

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    I agree with this statement. If a trade makes the team better any player should be available to deal.

    If we are talking about Chris Paddack, please explain how he is established any more than Randy Dobnak or just by himself and not as a comparison to RD.

    His stuff plays when he is healthy and yeah its been awhile since he pitched a lot of innings in a season but he has as good of a shot as anyone to throw 150+ innings of 3.4 era and 1.2 whip ball as anyone on the staff. 
    his TJ issues are behind him far enough that he just needs to throw consistently.  The other scenario is that he shifts to the bullpen and throws every other day like he did in the playoffs in ‘23. 

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,949

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    His stuff plays when he is healthy and yeah its been awhile since he pitched a lot of innings in a season but he has as good of a shot as anyone to throw 150+ innings of 3.4 era and 1.2 whip ball as anyone on the staff. 
    his TJ issues are behind him far enough that he just needs to throw consistently.  The other scenario is that he shifts to the bullpen and throws every other day like he did in the playoffs in ‘23. 

    I'm in favor of keeping Paddack as an option in the bullpen if the roster budget allows that to occur. I do believe he may be a reasonable option this year alongside Michael Tonkin.

    Chris Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a year at any level in his life. He has been hit pretty hard since 2019. If he were to successfully pitch more than 100 innings in 2025 it would be pretty much a miracle. 

    Hopefully, the Twins decide that $140 million is an ok 26 person roster budget and we see Paddack be good in the bullpen. I believe that is a reasonable expectation for his ceiling.

    Fatbat

    Fatbat 3,179

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    I'm in favor of keeping Paddack as an option in the bullpen if the roster budget allows that to occur. I do believe he may be a reasonable option this year alongside Michael Tonkin.

    Chris Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a year at any level in his life. He has been hit pretty hard since 2019. If he were to successfully pitch more than 100 innings in 2025 it would be pretty much a miracle. 

    Hopefully, the Twins decide that $140 million is an ok 26 person roster budget and we see Paddack be good in the bullpen. I believe that is a reasonable expectation for his ceiling.

    Id trade 65 stellar RP innings for 25 starts by paddack

    Doctor Wu

    Doctor Wu 4,337

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    20 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    Seeing both sides of the argument, I would be fine with either decision.

    That's pretty much the way I feel too. I think it would be foolish to trade him away just because his contract is relatively high, and we aren't sure how durable he will be next season. I think there is still some upside with Paddack and I also think his main value is as a starter. But that said, if they can get a quality MLB-ready player in return, or a decent prospect, I wouldn't be too shook up about a trade. 



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