Bullpen Strategy: What Would You Do?

But how big of a priority should adding arms be this offseason? I think it is important to look at the current state of the Twins bullpen. Do the Twins need one arm? Two arms? Should they go after someone who will cost three years and $20+ million, or should they strategically add a veteran on a one-year deal?

THE CLOSERS

The last couple of seasons, Glen Perkins has been unbeatable in the first half and struggled in the second half. He is a three-time All Star and has closed out the midsummer classic for the American League the last two years. Despite his second half struggles, he is the closer, and he will need to find a way to be better throug the entire season. He’s signed through 2017 with an option for 2018.

Kevin Jepsen hadn’t been a closer with the Angels or with the Rays, but with Perkins' injury situation in thesecond half, he did a tremendous job in the role. He is in his final year of arbitration and showed he is very capable of being a closer. It’s a nice “problem” to have two guys capable of the role.

FOR STARTERS…

Ervin Santana. Phil Hughes. Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey. Tommy Milone. Trevor May. Ricky Nolasco. JO Berrios.

Five of those eight pitchers will be starters for the Twins on Opening Day. Of course, a couple could be trade candidates this offseason as well. Milone’s name is likely to be heard heavily in the rumor mills, and Nolasco is a name that the Twins would likely prefer to trade. Trevor May was told when he moved to the bullpen halfway through the 2015 season that he would be given a shot to return to the starting rotation in 2016. We shall see.

In my opinion, the first four on the list (Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey) should be written in ink. If Milone is still around, he will likely be in the rotation. Berrios will not be brought up to pitch out of the bullpen, but Milone and Nolasco could be bullpen guys.

I fully expect that Trevor May will pitch in the bullpen all season and Nolasco could be the long man.

BEEN THERE

Casey Fien is arbitration eligible and could make up to $2.25 million in 2016 if the Twins choose to tender him a contract. Though he was quite solid in 2013 and 2014, he fought injuries in 2015 and wasn’t able to consistently get batters out in the seventh or eighth innings.

Michael Tonkin is out of options. For the last three years, he has become a frequent flyer between Rochester and Minneapolis. He has pretty well dominated the International League with a 94 mph fastball. However, he has not been able to get into a groove in the big leagues. Frankly, he hasn’t been given consistent enough work with the Twins to really know what they have. So, what should the Twins do with Tonkin in 2016? Twinkie Town’s Andrew Bryzgornia writes that it’s time to give Tonkin a shot.

Ryan Pressly was pitching pretty well when he got hurt. The former Rule 5 pick has an option remaining, but he showed great improvement after being given some time in AAA. 2014’s Rule 5 pick JR Graham is likely headed to Rochester to start the 2016 season. He showed the fastball, but showed he has much room for improvement and consistency. The Twins got through 2015 with him and can now let him get some final development in at AAA.

Alex Meyer had a frustrating 2015 season in AAA. He was moved to the bullpen and struggled there. He got into two games with the Twins and that didn’t go so well. But the talent is still there and at some point, he could be ready. And, when he is ready, he could be a dominant reliever. While Meyer struggled, AJ Achter continued his domination of AAA. Though he had two or three clunkers in the big leagues, he showed that he can pitch at the level. Each pitcher has two options remaining.

Lefty Ryan O’Rourke came to the Twins after the All-Star break and showed that he can get left-handed big league hitters out as well, as he proved in the minor leagues. He also showed that he could struggle against right-handers. Logan Darnell had a tremendous August in Rochester, pitching as well as he ever has. He earned his promotion in September and could have really helped the team in long-relief if not for coming down with pneumonia. Pat Dean’s surprising and impressive 2015 season in Rochester makes him a candidate as a lefty reliever as well.

SOON AND VERY SOON

And then there are the power arms that the team has been drafting the last two or three seasons. Many, myself included, believed that we would see a couple of them in 2015. Instead, a couple of them got humbled in 2015. However, it is possible that several of these pitchers will surface with the Twins in 2016.

Nick Burdi and JT Chargois can touch 100 mph with their fastballs and each has a very good slider. Chargois also has a good changeup at times. Jake Reed, like Burdi, was drafted in 2014. He and Burdi have combined to give up 0 runs in about 20 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Reed sits 94-95 and can touch 97. Despite his second-half struggles, hard-throwing Zack Jones may not be all that far from big league ready too.

From the left side, the Twins could push Taylor Rogers to the bullpen. He dominated left-handed bats at AAA in 2015 and is a more-consistent change up from being a capable big league starter. He is very close. Meanwhile, high-upside lefty relievers Corey Williams and Mason Melotakis are coming back from Tommy John surgery. Williams pitched half of the 2015 season and got to AA. Melotakis missed the entire 2015 season and should get back on the mound before midseason.

As much as this group has the potential to dominate out of the bullpen, they haven’t done it yet, and there is no guarantee that they will. There is a belief that several of them will be big-time relievers, but time will tell. Patience will be necessary.

HOW COULD THE BULLPEN LOOK?

For this exercise, I’ll assume that the Twins non-tender Casey Fien and trade Tommy Milone for minor leaguers. I’ll assume that Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Tyler Duffey will be in the rotation. I will assume that JO Berrios begins the season in the AAA rotation (though he could be up soon). In fact, for this purpose, I’ll say that Ricky Nolasco gets to start the season as the fifth starter and will get 4-6 weeks of time before Berrios takes a spot. Let’s also say that the Twins would much prefer to start the season with a 12-man pitching staff, meaning seven pitchers in the bullpen.

Closer: Glen Perkins

RH Set-up: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly

LH Set-up: Logan Darnell OR Ryan O’Rourke

Long-Relief: Logan Darnell OR Taylor Rogers OR AJ Achter OR JR Graham

Though there are some moving parts and there will be some position battles in spring training, there are three or four names that can probably be placed in ink. That means there are four spots open in spring training for any number of pitchers.

Waiting in the (Rochester Red) Wings: Logan Darnell, Ryan O’Rourke, Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, AJ Achter, JR Graham, Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, Corey Williams, Zack Jones, Mason Melotakis. These are all guys who could surface by the end of 2016.

RECOMMENDATION

Because there are so many options, many with potentially big upsides, coming up in the near future, I wouldn’t recommend signing anyone to more than a two-year contract. And frankly, tw- year contracts should only be on the table if it’s at a discount of some sort. In other words, Darren O’Day is expected to sign for four years and $32-36 million. If he were willing to sign with the Twins for two years and $12 million, that’s just fine. The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky.

I would look for one left-handed, veteran reliever to replace Brian Duensing. That could be Neal Cotts, or another reliever willing to sign for one year (or available in a trade). In the Offseason Handbook, we suggested a Matt Thornton for about $4 million. Other names include Randy Choate or Manny Parra. With Perkins and Thornton (or similar), they could go with a less experienced lefty like O’Rourke or Darnell or Rogers working a role in the bullpen as well. Who knows? Maybe Dan Runzler, signed as a minor league free agent recently, could surprise and be an option.

If the Twins had any confidence that Blaine Boyer could pitch as well as he did in 2015, which is unlikely but you never know, he would make sense to bring back. I think adding one right-handed veteran to a one-year contract would also be good. Again, a trade for such a player wouldn’t be bad either. Maybe guys like Mark Lowe or Matt Albers could fit that mold as well.

How does this look?

Closer: Glen Perkins

RH Relievers: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin

LH Relievers: Matt Thornton, (Ryan O’Rourke or Logan Darnell or Taylor Rogers)

Long relief: Logan Darnell or Taylor Rogers or AJ Achter or Ryan Pressly or JR Graham or Alex Meyer or Ricky Nolasco

The Twins could also chose to go with eight bullpen arms, making room for one more from the long relief category. As we should expect, the Twins should also add a few minor league free agent relievers. They have had good luck with that route in the past as well.

Sure, it would be more of a splash to go out and sign Tyler Clippard, Darren O’Day, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp, but that isn’t likely to happen, and it would be far more risky to sign one of them than to sign the one-year types.

So, what do you think? What would your strategy be for helping out the Twins bullpen in 2016 and beyond?