Arbitrary Thoughts: Royce Lewis

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I absolutely love these arbitration articles. Gives us something interesting to talk about. But I don't feel a flippant comment in this OP about various comments he's made in the past without proper context, and just move on. It felt like a little jab that should/could have been left out, or included greater context.

Royce is generally exuberant, but wears his heart on his sleeve and is sometimes too open and flippant in his comments. He didn't want to move to 2B mid season because he was embarrassing himself or blow a game? I get that. But he did it. And then he worked hard at 2B during the offseason to prepare to play there in games and then the Twins told him not to worry about it. Again, context is important...

Quote snipped for brevity, with two phrases bolded for emphasis. 

I agree throughout, Doc, and applaud you for emphasizing the notion of context. There is nearly always more to the situation than meets the eye. 

You didn't reference the infamous, "I don't do that slump thing" comment. Let's look at the context. 

Royce missed most of the beginning of the season because of injury. We know the stories of him battling back through injury, We can imagine the frustration he felt at finally being healthy and getting hurt in the first game of the season after going two-for-two with a homer. And then he battled back from injury, returning on June 4 and going on a tear. After a doubleheader on June 16 he was .390 with a 1.398 OPS in his relatively small sample size. 

And then he went 0-for-5, dropping his average to .348 and OPS to 1.252. 

What does a good player do after a day like that? Focuses on having a better day tomorrow. 

And Royce did -- and he bounced back and went 4 for 7 with two home runs the next two days, putting the average back up to .377 and the OPS to 1.376.

I didn't hear the interview, but I used to be a journalist. If I go to him after the second game, my opening comment is something like, "Wow, Royce. You went 0 for 5 on Friday night, but you really bounced back yesterday and today." 

And Royce said, "I don't do that slump thing." 

What do we have? We have a young, exuberant player, celebrating that he's back and healthy, celebrating that he bounced back from a rough game to put together a couple good games. He's such a positive-energy guy (at least was at that point) that I couldn't help but hearing him saying, "Yeah, I had a rough game Friday night, but I know you can't dwell on that, because then you start to spiral down. It's important to bounce back as quickly as you can. I focus on the positive -- I don't do that slump thing." 

Again, I didn't hear the interview. But frankly, that's the attitude I want in a talented athlete. Is he saying he's never going to have a bad game? No player is dumb enough to say that. Is he even saying he's never going to have a bad week? I don't think so. To me, he's saying that when those things happen, he's going to focus on getting out of the bad streak rather than focusing on the bad stretch to the point that it turns into something bigger, to the point it turns into a thing in his head.  

Unfortunately, after a couple more games (when 3 for 9 brings your average down), he then had one of those weeks, going 2 for 25 over an eight-day period. And he got excoriated for it, with people never letting him hear the end of it. We like to tear people down in our society, so when someone is going good, we can't wait to see him fail. I confess to being guilty of that too often. 

That's the context I see. I don't have a TV package, so I haven't seen him play many games, but from things I've read and the few interviews I've heard, it sure seems like that was the point that started sucking the joy out of him. And with every failure, with every thing he says that people don't like, it gets piled on deeper. 

My hope? The right new manager and Buxton make a visit to his house in November, with the message, "We care about you. We believe in you." And then Buxton takes him under his wing as a mentor. Byron's been through similar stuff, both the unrealistic expectations and the struggles with injuries. 

As you said, "If he ONLY turns out to be a .270 hitter with 30+ Dbls and 20+ HR and an acceptable OB%, that's still a very good and valuable player." I just hope that if he does that, people will allow themselves to cheer for him. 

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EDIT to add:

I just found the full original quote. "I don't do that slump thing,'" Lewis said June 20, 2024 after responding to an 0-for-5 game with three hits, including a homer that broke the scoreboard in left field. "That's not a real thing for me. I understand that that's a thing, baseball, you're going to go into a slump or whatever, but for me, I don't have that mindset. It's a new day."

I got no problem with that as a full quote.

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

And what you have replayed here is why I have so much angst in regard to media in general,  but will leave it on regards to Lewis. 

We keep hearing the "I don't slump" as if that is some sort of insult to the game. Which it ISN'T.  Would you rather have an insecure ballplayer on your team? And then you provide the FULL context of his quote.

It's similar to his quote he didn't want to play 2B half way through a season. But why do so many ignore the rest of his quote that he didn't want to blow a game at a new position? Why do so many want to dismiss reports he worked out at 2B in offseason to get ready for 2B before the Twins said to not worry about it?

So because he's not proven to be Superman we're supposed to take a few comments and say this kid isn't a team player? It's just ridiculous. 

Were I Buxton, I would pull him aside and tell him to take a breath or two before speaking, and just realize you to relax for a moment while speaking and be honest, but don't let frustration command your reply.

This kid is guilty of NOTHING other than injuries beyond his control, and maybe being guilty ONLY of speaking his honest thoughts at times of frustration.  What the hell is wrong with that?

I went to seminary. I'm not seeking to inject religion into this post, but I think you'll get my point.

We had an assignment to describe what we thought was the biggest threat to the Bible. I said it was the bumper sticker, our tendency to reduce things to a sound bite. 

No brainer; tender arbitration. Prime candidate to be revitalized under a more active/supportive managing regime; Lewis's odd quotations (along with some cryptic Correa statements and the Jax blowup) were major symptoms of how badly Rocco had lost this team.

17 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Ok, first, that's not great. If you're cherry picking a significantly large timeline and still can't get him to above an 800 OPS, that's not great! For example, Trevor Larnach had an 850 OPS from April 13 - May 19 and an 880 OPS from July 30 - Sept 4th!

And, secondly, we can also say he hit .231 / .267 / .395 from Aug 1 to the end of the season. 

He was bad. 

Lol…it wasn’t me, it was a direct quote from the SI article. I should have been clearer on that.

I was simply stating he hit better as the season went on.  Do you disagree?

Edit: I do understand your point about cherry picking dates and somewhat agree.  I tend to compile and calculate my own stats.  I was just too lazy this time and quoted the article.  But to some extent, you have to pick dates to show a point. I don't know how the author decided on August 17th as the start date.  However, the end date was defined by the date the article was published, which was September 23rd. 

Your point on OPS is well taken.  However, the OPS quoted in the article (.791) is still well above league average of .719 for 2025.  It would also put him at 54th place of all MLB hitters, above Spencer Torkelson, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Lowe, Elly De La Cruz, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, PCA, Ian Happ, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts, etc...   It did surprise me that Lewis only walked 10 times since August 1st and 25 times all year.  His BB rate was 6.2%.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/royce-lewis-admits-he-came-back-too-soon-from-hamstring-injury

18 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

"Dramatic loss of sprint speed" that still generated 12 stolen bases, including eight in the month of September when the breaks were taken off the team. 

Sometime in September, Glen Perkins provided some month-by-month sprint speed numbers for Lewis, in which he was above average in August and September. I can't find such a breakdown, but I believe Perkins' comment to be factual. The eye test and his twelve stolen bases in the second half of the season tell me his sprint speed is not declining as he has recovered from all of the leg injuries. 

According to Baseball Savant, Lewis went from the 28th percentile to the 34th percentile from 2024 to 2025, so his speed actually increased over the full 2025 season. I don't think Lewis will ever again have elite speed, but if his legs stay healthy, he can and will be an above-average runner who can steal a base. 

20 hours ago, Hrbowski said:

Somebody's demeanor is not a reason to not offer them a contract when they have as much baseball potential as Lewis. That reeks of the crap organizations pull of trying to dig up things their players said in middle school when they have arbitration hearings so they can paint them as horrible people to try and win their low-ball offers.

If Royce is the dreaded "clubhouse cancer", yes his demeanor, or more generally off-field behavior, is a reason to show him the door. I don't think that is remotely close to the actual situation. Lewis has said some things that might be true, but come off as both me-first and immature. That is unfortunate, but from what I can tell, those around the team don't view him as a bad guy at all.

No team wants to go to arbitration and the Twins in the Falvey era have done a pretty good job of avoiding those hearings. It is counterproductive to diss a player publicly and then have him on a team. 

Lewis is an easy decision to tender a contract for 2026. As noted in the above posts, there is some reason for optimism, but his performance in both the second half of 2024 and for the full season of 2025 hasn't been very good. 

Having a full healthy off-season could put Royce in position to being the elite player we saw in flashes in 2023 and 2024.