A Breakout or Breakthrough for Sano

Yes, Miguel Sano nearly won the Rookie of the Year award (finishing third) back in 2015). Yes, he’s hit at least 18 home runs in each of his three big league seasons. Yes, Sano’s 28 long balls a year ago were a career high. Taking a look at virtually any production-based stat for Sano should leave you impressed this early on in the soon-to-be 25 year-old’s career. What suggests that we may not have seen anything close to what’s available is just how seldom the slugger has been in the lineup.

Over the past two seasons, Sano has played just 116 and 114 games for Minnesota. Having dealt with injuries at different points through his big league career, the Twins tender of the hot corner has yet to reach anything close to a full 162 game production level. While it may be difficult to expect a man that large to not break down over such a haul that is MLB’s regular season, it’s also not unthinkable. Sano’s weight has been called into question plenty, and while I think there’s reason for concerns, to me it’s more about the reflection of his personal dedication. Still at such a young age, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that seasons at near-max production still lie ahead.

That’s where things get enticing for the Dominican native.

Sano’s .859 OPS across 114 games a season ago didn’t quite match the .916 mark in the 80 game sample size that was his rookie year. Despite settling at a .264 average, Sano flirted with something between .280-.300 for a good bulk of the year. Sure strikeouts remain a problem, and he may lead the league over a full season, but his OBP (.352) is reflective of a guy who is able to downplay most of the negatives a trip back to the dugout is associated with. The slash line isn’t really where the numbers jump off the page though.

Across the 114 games in 2017, Sano posted career bests in runs scored (75), hits (112), home runs (28) and RBI (77). Extrapolating that production over the course of a full season is pretty eye-opening. Per 162 games, the numbers equate to 107 runs scored, 159 hits, 40 homers, and 109 RBI. Getting that kind of production from the hot corner is something Minnesota hasn’t laid claim to since the days of Harmon Killebrew.

In 2016, Brian Dozier eclipsed the 40 home run plateau and became the first Twins player to do so not named Harmon. At the time of his accomplishment, Dozier was a big league veteran and 29 years old. Sano could join the group as early as the 2018 season, and would be doing so while significantly younger, and really before his true prime.

There’s a possibility that Miguel could face a suspension to start out 2018 (although it’s looking somewhat unlikely), and there’s reason to believe health may keep him out of more than a handful of contests. There’s also room in the equation for optimism, and while he won’t ever play a complete 162 games schedule, getting over the 150 mark would provide for some truly great numbers.

2018 doesn’t need to be a defining season for Sano, the best one of his career, or something of historic proportions. What I think we should be aware of however, is that as great as we’ve seen flashes thus far, they’ve been on a scale roughly equivalent to two-thirds of a season. If Sano can gain himself the ability to compete on a more frequent basis, it’s a good bet that truly great numbers will follow suit.

Before there was Byron Buxton, there was Miguel Sano. Paul Molitor getting the most out of them at the highest level would no doubt equate to a pairing this organization hasn’t seen in quite some time.