5 Hitters the Twins Could Target With the #5 Pick

jishfish · May 30, 2023

Awesome content as always Jamie! Couple thoughts I've been having as some new rankings/mock draft/notes have come out, particularly around Jacob Gonzalez/Wilson.

First, I'm pretty confident Langford is at least #2 on the Twins board, and it wouldn't shock me if they were one of the teams who valued him over Crews. I have to imagine he is the Best Case Scenario at this point, and that if he were to get past the Tigers at 3, the Twins would do everything they could to get him to 5.
Second, I'm also pretty confident the Twins would have Jenkins > Clark on their board, based both on skillset and personality.

Based on those two statements, my guess would be that either Langford or Jenkins would be the easy pick if either of them make it to 5. I think the most interesting scenario that could paly out is if Crews/Skenes/Langford/Jenkins all go top 4, and the Twins are left with a choice between Clark or [Insert College Player, most likely with the first name Jacob]. I think this is the only scenario I could see the Twins not taking one of the consensus top 5, as I haven't heard much connecting them with Clark, and I do think they value College Bat > HS Bat.

I just can't see them taking either Jacob Wilson or Jacob Gonzalez over one of those top 4 players. I know the Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN wrote today that he has heard "the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model", which I have a few more thoughts on.

While I do think it's true that the Twins model values hitters over pitchers in a vacuum, I think that's more the case of "all else equal we'll go hitter", which I don't think is the case here with the talent level of Skenes.
I also don't think Gonzalez/Wilson would even be the model favorites of the Twins, unless they value Contact > everything, which I don't believe they do. I would have to think Kyle Teel or even a Chase Davis/Tommy Troy would be higher in any sort of model they're using.
Based on some Twitter notes from Darren Wolfson, it sounds like the Twins have had a pretty heavy presence at LSU games all spring, particularly the Skenes starts.

So while I do think their model points towards hitter over pitcher (aka Langford over Skenes), I don't believe it would point towards "mid-first round hitter with average power" over "generational pitcher who's been working with our former pitching coach for the last 12 months".

All of this is basically just a long way of me coping with these reports of Jacob Wilson/Gonzalez being on the Twins radar, but if you've stuck with me this far I appreciate the read! Early July can not get here soon enough!!

Jamie Cameron · May 30, 2023

8 minutes ago, jishfish said:

Awesome content as always Jamie! Couple thoughts I've been having as some new rankings/mock draft/notes have come out, particularly around Jacob Gonzalez/Wilson.

First, I'm pretty confident Langford is at least #2 on the Twins board, and it wouldn't shock me if they were one of the teams who valued him over Crews. I have to imagine he is the Best Case Scenario at this point, and that if he were to get past the Tigers at 3, the Twins would do everything they could to get him to 5.

Second, I'm also pretty confident the Twins would have Jenkins > Clark on their board, based both on skillset and personality.

Based on those two statements, my guess would be that either Langford or Jenkins would be the easy pick if either of them make it to 5. I think the most interesting scenario that could paly out is if Crews/Skenes/Langford/Jenkins all go top 4, and the Twins are left with a choice between Clark or [Insert College Player, most likely with the first name Jacob]. I think this is the only scenario I could see the Twins not taking one of the consensus top 5, as I haven't heard much connecting them with Clark, and I do think they value College Bat > HS Bat.

I just can't see them taking either Jacob Wilson or Jacob Gonzalez over one of those top 4 players. I know the Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN wrote today that he has heard "the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model", which I have a few more thoughts on.

While I do think it's true that the Twins model values hitters over pitchers in a vacuum, I think that's more the case of "all else equal we'll go hitter", which I don't think is the case here with the talent level of Skenes.

I also don't think Gonzalez/Wilson would even be the model favorites of the Twins, unless they value Contact > everything, which I don't believe they do. I would have to think Kyle Teel or even a Chase Davis/Tommy Troy would be higher in any sort of model they're using.

Based on some Twitter notes from Darren Wolfson, it sounds like the Twins have had a pretty heavy presence at LSU games all spring, particularly the Skenes starts.

So while I do think their model points towards hitter over pitcher (aka Langford over Skenes), I don't believe it would point towards "mid-first round hitter with average power" over "generational pitcher who's been working with our former pitching coach for the last 12 months".

All of this is basically just a long way of me coping with these reports of Jacob Wilson/Gonzalez being on the Twins radar, but if you've stuck with me this far I appreciate the read! Early July can not get here soon enough!!

Needed this this AM. Agree with all that, well, reasoned, makes a ton of sense. We haven't dug into this much yet, but as you point out, I could make a more compelling case for 3-5 college hitters slightly under slot at 5 than for Gonzalez or Wilson. I also think it's true that the Twins are usually pretty tight lipped about everything. Usually, in FA for example, when the news hits is when we know. It's so rare to have a clear top 5 like this. To illustrate the gap, Clark's average ranking on my board is 4.8, Gonzalez (who is currently consensus 5, is 9.5), that's a monumental difference that early on the board. Take any of those top five players and I'll be thrilled. No complaints.

Cory Engelhardt · May 30, 2023

36 minutes ago, jishfish said:

Awesome content as always Jamie! Couple thoughts I've been having as some new rankings/mock draft/notes have come out, particularly around Jacob Gonzalez/Wilson.

First, I'm pretty confident Langford is at least #2 on the Twins board, and it wouldn't shock me if they were one of the teams who valued him over Crews. I have to imagine he is the Best Case Scenario at this point, and that if he were to get past the Tigers at 3, the Twins would do everything they could to get him to 5.

Second, I'm also pretty confident the Twins would have Jenkins > Clark on their board, based both on skillset and personality.

Based on those two statements, my guess would be that either Langford or Jenkins would be the easy pick if either of them make it to 5. I think the most interesting scenario that could paly out is if Crews/Skenes/Langford/Jenkins all go top 4, and the Twins are left with a choice between Clark or [Insert College Player, most likely with the first name Jacob]. I think this is the only scenario I could see the Twins not taking one of the consensus top 5, as I haven't heard much connecting them with Clark, and I do think they value College Bat > HS Bat.

I just can't see them taking either Jacob Wilson or Jacob Gonzalez over one of those top 4 players. I know the Kiley McDaniel over at ESPN wrote today that he has heard "the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model", which I have a few more thoughts on.

While I do think it's true that the Twins model values hitters over pitchers in a vacuum, I think that's more the case of "all else equal we'll go hitter", which I don't think is the case here with the talent level of Skenes.

I also don't think Gonzalez/Wilson would even be the model favorites of the Twins, unless they value Contact > everything, which I don't believe they do. I would have to think Kyle Teel or even a Chase Davis/Tommy Troy would be higher in any sort of model they're using.

Based on some Twitter notes from Darren Wolfson, it sounds like the Twins have had a pretty heavy presence at LSU games all spring, particularly the Skenes starts.

So while I do think their model points towards hitter over pitcher (aka Langford over Skenes), I don't believe it would point towards "mid-first round hitter with average power" over "generational pitcher who's been working with our former pitching coach for the last 12 months".

All of this is basically just a long way of me coping with these reports of Jacob Wilson/Gonzalez being on the Twins radar, but if you've stuck with me this far I appreciate the read! Early July can not get here soon enough!!

Loved this, thank you for this.

I do not think they will take a pitcher (other than Skenes) at 5, but I would certainly take a college pitcher over Wilson or Gonzalez too. But yeah, the other 4 hitters listed here too.

jishfish · May 30, 2023

36 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Needed this this AM. Agree with all that, well, reasoned, makes a ton of sense. We haven't dug into this much yet, but as you point out, I could make a more compelling case for 3-5 college hitters slightly under slot at 5 than for Gonzalez or Wilson. I also think it's true that the Twins are usually pretty tight lipped about everything. Usually, in FA for example, when the news hits is when we know. It's so rare to have a clear top 5 like this. To illustrate the gap, Clark's average ranking on my board is 4.8, Gonzalez (who is currently consensus 5, is 9.5), that's a monumental difference that early on the board. Take any of those top five players and I'll be thrilled. No complaints.

True, love that point about the Twins being tight lipped. There also doesn't seem to be any motivation for the Twins to be leaking anything at this point. So while I'm sure "sources" do look at the Twins and say their model says hitters over pitchers (which technically isn't wrong), I think there is a lot more nuance than that. Especially when there's still 6 weeks to go until draft day with private workouts/individual meetings all yet to happen.

In my opinion, the hardest decision the Twins should have to make is if more than one of the top five were to make it to their pick, but I'm confident you're in agreement with me on that and would be a great problem to run into.

jishfish · May 30, 2023

One other thought I had just connecting some dots this morning. I have a weird hunch that the Reds are going to do everything they can to get Max Clark to them at 7, with the biggest obstacle being him getting past the Twins at 5. Let me break it down:

Clark would be a perfect fit for the Reds.
- Local kid (Franklin is only an hour and a half from Cincinnati).
- They don't really have any CF prospects in their system, at least not top 10.
- They jumped on a falling prep talent in Cam Collier last year.
- He fits perfectly with both their timeline and the type of player they look for. Pairing him with Elly de la Cruz, Collier, CES, Noelvi Marte, etc would be a perfect fit and is a fun future lineup to dream on.
If Clark gets past the Twins at 5, I don't think there's any shot he goes to Oakland at 6.
- Oakland has a pretty old school scouting department from my understanding, and have mainly been connected to college hitters/pitchers.
- This is the big one, but I think Clark would legitimately choose going to Vandy over Oakland. With his social media presence and personality, the last place I see him wanting to end up is Oakland given their current state of affairs.

I'm not sure how that completely ties in with some of the news that's been trickling out about the Twins being connected to the second tier of college hitters, but maybe the Reds are just trying to generate some steam there to get a maximum chaos scenario to play out? Obviously the Twins can do whatever they want, and if they have Clark at the top of their board at 5 I'm sure they'll take him, but just wanted to share a fun theory I had!

Jocko87 · May 30, 2023

22 minutes ago, jishfish said:

True, love that point about the Twins being tight lipped. There also doesn't seem to be any motivation for the Twins to be leaking anything at this point. So while I'm sure "sources" do look at the Twins and say their model says hitters over pitchers (which technically isn't wrong), I think there is a lot more nuance than that. Especially when there's still 6 weeks to go until draft day with private workouts/individual meetings all yet to happen.

In my opinion, the hardest decision the Twins should have to make is if more than one of the top five were to make it to their pick, but I'm confident you're in agreement with me on that and would be a great problem to run into.

Everyone is still very tight lipped and there is so so much left to happen. In addition to the workouts and meetings, we still have to sign with agents and signability discussions. A composite of the teams boards would look like that conspiracy theorist meme with lines every where. The ESPN mock from today had Clark going #1 so Pitt could save almost a million.

The preps can still threaten to go to college and while NIL money hasn't hit baseball fully yet it will soon. How much NIL money does it take to skew the slot value game?

Also, did you say 110mph AVERAGE exit velocity? Langford was my target already but sheesh.

2wins87 · May 30, 2023

41 minutes ago, jishfish said:

True, love that point about the Twins being tight lipped. There also doesn't seem to be any motivation for the Twins to be leaking anything at this point. So while I'm sure "sources" do look at the Twins and say their model says hitters over pitchers (which technically isn't wrong), I think there is a lot more nuance than that. Especially when there's still 6 weeks to go until draft day with private workouts/individual meetings all yet to happen.

In my opinion, the hardest decision the Twins should have to make is if more than one of the top five were to make it to their pick, but I'm confident you're in agreement with me on that and would be a great problem to run into.

I think they have shown a willingness to go multiple directions early in the draft. You can see some clear tendencies from later picks but that probably doesn't have as much bearing on their first round pick as the talent available in the draft. I'm not putting very much stock in rumors either.

I think the reason their model would prefer hitters over pitchers probably isn't too nuanced in the end and it's the same reason that every team's model does: injuries. I think it's clear from they way they have gone about acquiring major league pitching that they have a pretty strong weight on injury risk, and every pitcher is going to have that, not in the least those throwing in the upper 90s or topping 100. I would think they would still be perfectly willing if not thrilled to go for Skenes at #5 though, whatever the rumors.

Of course they are going to do their own due diligence and their board could end up different than the consensus. It's also a guarantee that someone outside of the consensus top 5 will go on to have a better career than most of them, if not all.

Jamie Cameron · May 30, 2023

48 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Everyone is still very tight lipped and there is so so much left to happen. In addition to the workouts and meetings, we still have to sign with agents and signability discussions. A composite of the teams boards would look like that conspiracy theorist meme with lines every where. The ESPN mock from today had Clark going #1 so Pitt could save almost a million.

The preps can still threaten to go to college and while NIL money hasn't hit baseball fully yet it will soon. How much NIL money does it take to skew the slot value game?

Also, did you say 110mph AVERAGE exit velocity? Langford was my target already but sheesh.

110 mph is his 90th percentile EV. Max is over 114, average is 90.1. All elite numbers.

Dman · May 30, 2023

I like all the players mentioned but let me start with who I like the least. I could regret saying this but I don't love Jenkins as a pick for Minnesota. We have young outfielders on the rise in Rosario and Rodriguez and a ton of guys right behind him in Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez, Nova and Churio. If you believe in Aguiar he might be Jenkins right now with less plate discipline. Maybe Jenkins is the next Crews but I don't love him at number 5 for the Twins.

Gonzalaz doesn't seem to have great power nor does he have great speed. That alone should take him out of the top 5 IMO but the fact we we have a slightly better version of him in Lee makes me even less interested. I want more upside at 5 than he provides.

Langford might also be redundant in the system but if he fell he has a power speed profile that is intriguing to me. I think the Twins would scoop him up in a hurry if he was there. The bat and the fact he runs well make him a good get at number 5.

I think Clark fits upside and team need the best of any player in the top 5. We don't have a player with elite speed in center in the system. He is a pretty solid 5 tool player with only power being a question mark. Hearing some rumblings about makeup but he still would be my pick if available at number 5.

Teel is growing on me. A catcher that can move well on the bases with a good eye at the plate and solid hit tool with power at a position with few offensive standouts seems like a nice get. I don't know a ton about his defense and if they don't think he sticks at that position I would prefer other players. If they do see catching as his future I like him at number 5 just fine.

I still like Wilson if Clark is gone and maybe even if Clark is there as well. He could be this years Zach Neto. With only 5 K's this year and only 7 last year he gets the bat to the ball. He could be an Arraez type hitter if those numbers come close to holding. He is not facing elite competition but I don't think Neto did either. It looks like he can probably stick at short and the only real question has been power.

There are going to be lot's of good hitters to choose from at number 5. We just need to get the one that is going to reach their ceiling.

Dman · May 30, 2023

3 hours ago, jishfish said:

I also don't think Gonzalez/Wilson would even be the model favorites of the Twins, unless they value Contact > everything, which I don't believe they do. I would have to think Kyle Teel or even a Chase Davis/Tommy Troy would be higher in any sort of model they're using.

All of this is basically just a long way of me coping with these reports of Jacob Wilson/Gonzalez being on the Twins radar, but if you've stuck with me this far I appreciate the read! Early July can not get here soon enough!!

I agree with you that Wilson isn't a typical Twins pick as he doesn't have the power profile they like. I think, however, that given the dearth of power hitters they have accumulated they hopefully see the value of contact bats as well. They got to see how Arraez impacted the team and if they ever read this board they should know how boring all the K's are. The Guardians used contact hitters to great effect last year although they are starting slow again this year.

I think reports of them looking hard at Wilson reflect they understand they need a better balance\different types of hitters. Also just like Steer I think Wilson could develop more power as he ages but likely will never have elite power. Wilson doesn't play elite competition so hard to gauge the low K numbers but I wouldn't mind them picking him especially if he was willing to go under slot at number 5.

Hard to say what will be available and what they decide to do. I just hope they pick the right guy. It feels like Wilson might be a fairly safe bet.

weitz41 · May 30, 2023

I just hope the FO doesn't overthink it. Any of the top 5 players should be taken at that spot. Most of what I've read says there is a drop off after the top 5. Seems like a spot you go for the highest ceiling not the highest floor. To do an under-slot guy to sign someone else later when you got this spot due to the lottery just feels like an opportunity wasted.

Anyone of Langford, Jenkins or Clark would be my choice.

Teel feels like a guy that is getting a big boost by position scarcity.

2wins87 · May 30, 2023

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree with you that Wilson isn't a typical Twins pick as he doesn't have the power profile they like. I think, however, that given the dearth of power hitters they have accumulated they hopefully see the value of contact bats as well. They got to see how Arraez impacted the team and if they ever read this board they should know how boring all the K's are. The Guardians used contact hitters to great effect last year although they are starting slow again this year.

I think reports of them looking hard at Wilson reflect they understand they need a better balance\different types of hitters. Also just like Steer I think Wilson could develop more power as he ages but likely will never have elite power. Wilson doesn't play elite competition so hard to gauge the low K numbers but I wouldn't mind them picking him especially if he was willing to go under slot at number 5.

Hard to say what will be available and what they decide to do. I just hope they pick the right guy. It feels like Wilson might be a fairly safe bet.

I like contact in prospects, maybe even more than your average prospect ranker. But if contact is the only tool you end up with Nick Madrigal basically, which is a name I've heard mentioned in the same sentence as Wilson. Maybe the ceiling on Wilson is a little higher than that but I'm not sure what the safety is worth if the ceiling is too low, which is my worry on Wilson.

jishfish · May 30, 2023

3 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I like contact in prospects, maybe even more than your average prospect ranker. But if contact is the only tool you end up with Nick Madrigal basically, which is a name I've heard mentioned in the same sentence as Wilson. Maybe the ceiling on Wilson is a little higher than that but I'm not sure what the safety is worth if the ceiling is too low, which is my worry on Wilson.

Agreed with you completely.

Looking back just a few drafts ago, Austin Martin had a similar profile (high contact, below average power, probably move off of shortstop), and he was even putting up his numbers in the SEC. He at least had speed/athleticism on his side to provide value via stolen bases and defensive versatility, which I don't know that Wilson has.

Ultimately the power still hasn't come for him though, and while I do believe he can still be a useful big league player, I think most would agree he's been a bust based on his pre-draft expectations.

Dman · May 30, 2023

8 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I like contact in prospects, maybe even more than your average prospect ranker. But if contact is the only tool you end up with Nick Madrigal basically, which is a name I've heard mentioned in the same sentence as Wilson. Maybe the ceiling on Wilson is a little higher than that but I'm not sure what the safety is worth if the ceiling is too low, which is my worry on Wilson.

I think that is a fair comp. Wilson might end up with more power hard to say though. Still before Madrigal was hurt he OPS'd .745 and .775 in MLB not bad numbers IMO. He was close to walking about as much as he K'd granted all in a SSS. It just depends on how you want to get to around an .800 OPS IMO. Through batting average or power. Maybe those high school players will do better than that or maybe they won't. Maybe like Steer Wilson finds his power later on. Hard to say. No one thought Neto would have enough power and I believe he is the first one in that class to see the majors and he seems to be holding his own.

Hawkeye Bean Counter · May 30, 2023

For the hitters this feels right. We need to remember the Twins have the 4th amount of salary pool available, so in reality we can outbid the pick in front of us which does give the Twins some maneuverability. Langford is my choice. I actually do prefer Clark over Jenkins due to a better compact swing.. I think the Twins could have a strong case at going underslot with any of the available prospects and who would do a deal with them. I think the big question mark is does anyone in the top 5 take a chance on Dollander. A consensus #1 pick at the beginning of the year. For me as it stands.

1. Skenes ( seems like a pipe dream). Skenes fits the Twins to a T. Has their prototypical build and Wes Johnson has coached him.

2. Crews (also likely a pipe dream). One of best hitting prospects in a decade.

3. Langford (possibility could drop). Has actually had better numbers than Crews this year.

4. Dollander (has at least shown high production at the upper levels)

5. Clark

6. Jenkins

7. Gonzalez

8. Lowder

9. Teel

Jamie Cameron · May 30, 2023

55 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think that is a fair comp. Wilson might end up with more power hard to say though. Still before Madrigal was hurt he OPS'd .745 and .775 in MLB not bad numbers IMO. He was close to walking about as much as he K'd granted all in a SSS. It just depends on how you want to get to around an .800 OPS IMO. Through batting average or power. Maybe those high school players will do better than that or maybe they won't. Maybe like Steer Wilson finds his power later on. Hard to say. No one thought Neto would have enough power and I believe he is the first one in that class to see the majors and he seems to be holding his own.

I have nothing against Wilson. I just personally feel that the Twins are in a unique position in a pretty unique draft talent wise with pretty unique financial muscle. Wilson has one skillset, elite bat to ball skills that drives the whole offensive profile. I'm sure he'll be a really good player and maybe I'm wrong and he develops power (he doesn't hit the ball that hard though), I'd just rather take a bigger swing on a potentially team altering prospect, as opposed to someone who might be a solid regular.

SarasotaBill · May 30, 2023

Please Twins don't overthink it. They are in the "no doubt - slam dunk" draft position. Just take the remaining top five prospect (probably Clark).

Jamie Cameron · May 30, 2023

Posting this for folks who are interested. Here's the Cubs version of this article (pick 13) and the Brewers version (pick 18). Some overlap of prospects written up, but this will get you through 6-8 more if you're looking for more info on potential first rounders. Really appreciate all the engagement from the 'Draft Nerds' lol. My favorite sub-community of Twins Daily

DocBauer · May 30, 2023

Going to go out on a very short and fragile limb and say that Crews and Skeens are off the board. It wouldn't take a ton of imagination to see the teams picking in front of the Twins to fall in love with someone else, Dollander, Lower, Teel, the HS bats, etc, and Langford slip to 5th. It doesn't make sense to me, but then again, Lee wasn't supposed to slide last year either. So while I wouldn't bet on it, or lay strong odds, I could see it happening.

Agree that Wilson looks like a "nice" player, but with a short ceiling. I don't want that at #5. Further, while you ALWAYS draft quality SS and fit them in later, again, I'm not sure I see the potential, plus, the organization isn't entirely devoid of infield talent and numbers right now. Pass for me.

If I had my choice between the powerful Jenkins and the more fleet of foot CF Clark with the potentially elite bat to ball skills, I'm going with Clark. I don't want to draft in the 1st round for need, but he fits outstanding prospect profile AND need as the organization feels shirt of CF options that should STICK there.

Keirsey at AA might be the best pure CF in the system right now, and he's got some really nice tools, but a bad college injury and some smaller ones as a pro has him getting old at 25-26 at AA. That's not a top prospect. He's a potential roll player. Celestino and Martin haven't even hit the field yet and it's about to turn June.

So I'm kinda big on Clark right now as a strong possible #5 for ceiling as well as organization need. He doesn't have to be a 20HR hitter...though maybe he becomes one...to be very good with hit, contact, speed, and defense at his disposal.

I am not out on Teel at #5 though. I've seen him pretty consistent in the top 10-12 lately. I don't want him just because he's a catcher. That's a poor way to draft. And I don't want him just because he's got "helium" as a hitter this year. But if the bat is REAL, combined with better than average athleticism for the position, and he has the tool framework to be a legitimate ML backstop, I'd be really tempted.

And I know we're talking position players right now, but is Dollander the biggest potential steal in the first 10 picks? He was the probable #1 pick preseason and still had a great arm. Do the Twins go away from a bat and go for the big, upside arm for a change?

Right now, my #5 pick is Clark.

twinstalker · May 31, 2023

Five legit #1 picks, and the Twins are looking at lesser and cheaper options to what end?

They can use the excuse of saving money to sign better players later, but what it appears to come down to is a front office not wanting to wait on a high schooler because, perhaps, they believe they may run out of time. I mean, why would you pass on one of these five guys unless it's to take another of the five?

Now, if you wanted to take low upside guys who probably will never hit, well, you listed two in this article. Pray the Twins don't go there.

My order of priority for the Twins: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark, Jenkins, but they pretty much have to take one of them. My realistic hope is Langford, as Jenkins and Clark could easily go 3-4. Of the two HS guys, I'd want Clark right now. (Disclaimer: I really know nothing except these five are VERY separated from the rest)

chpettit19 · May 31, 2023

11 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Five legit #1 picks, and the Twins are looking at lesser and cheaper options to what end?

They can use the excuse of saving money to sign better players later, but what it appears to come down to is a front office not wanting to wait on a high schooler because, perhaps, they believe they may run out of time. I mean, why would you pass on one of these five guys unless it's to take another of the five?

Now, if you wanted to take low upside guys who probably will never hit, well, you listed two in this article. Pray the Twins don't go there.

My order of priority for the Twins: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark, Jenkins, but they pretty much have to take one of them. My realistic hope is Langford, as Jenkins and Clark could easily go 3-4. Of the two HS guys, I'd want Clark right now. (Disclaimer: I really know nothing except these five are VERY separated from the rest)

I've had the same itch in the back of my mind about them being motivated by job security over best prospect when it comes to the high school kids. Or they fear a repeat of the Cavaco disaster, but that was them passing on the better HS prospect (Carroll) to grab the "helium prospect." If they pass on Clark for someone outside the top 5 and he becomes Carroll 2.0 fans are going to riot (well the really invested fans around here will write really angry posts).

I'm with Jaime here. You got to jump up 8 spots (if I'm remembering correctly) and you're thinking of taking advantage of that by picking a high floor, low ceiling prospect (if the rumors are to be believed)? If that's true Pohlad better fire them in the next month. You have a chance to pick someone with an elite ceiling, don't get cute.

My thought on this pick is to make it a "Brooks Lee line" decision. How many prospects in this draft would immediately become the team's #1 prospect? Is it 5? 8? 12? It sure sounds like there's 5 for sure. If it's only 5 you have to take one of the 5. If the top 5 are clearly better than him, but the second tier there'd be debate on? You have to take one of the top 5. My top 5 are the same as yours, and have the same disclaimer of not really knowing anything about them beyond what I read. But I know drafting "safe" in the top 5 is nonsense. Because there's no such thing anyways. Take an elite prospect when you're handed them on a silver platter.

Major League Ready · May 31, 2023

I was hoping we would have a shot at Langford but he is going 2nd or 3rd. He is hitting 400 with an OBP of .521 and more walks than Ks. His OPS is 1.343.

I have been pissed about passing on Carroll for the past 4 years which grew in intensity with every year Cavaco floundered. That was the most impactful mistake this FO has made. Imagine him in CF instead of MAT. They better not get cute again. Take whichever of the 5 top guys is available. That is most likely Jenkins or Clark. Of course, there are surprises quite often so who knows. It also might help that we have a larger bonus pool the Rangers.

Mike Sixel · May 31, 2023

Of those, I have no interest in the Gonzalez. I'd take Skenes over all but two of them....

Major League Ready · May 31, 2023

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of those, I have no interest in the Gonzalez. I'd take Skenes over all but two of them....

Me too but hard to imagine Skenes gets past #3. Right now it looks like Crews then Skenes or Langford.

Mike Sixel · May 31, 2023

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Me too but hard to imagine Skenes gets past #3. Right now it looks like Crews then Skenes or Langford.

I'd be shocked if those aren't the top 3. Pending health, of course. This is based on my extensive personal scouting, of course.....

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