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Last week, I attempted to quantify the value of Byron Buxton's defense and joined Tom Froemming via Periscope to discuss several topics related to the outfield. Let's take a look at how that unit may impact how the Twins invest in their pitching staff.
Four names that will not require a deep dive as you are probably already pretty familiar with are Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi. These four pitchers ranked in the top 50 in fly ball percentage in 2019, per FanGraphs, and I think any Twins fan would be happy to see them in uniform in 2020.
After the four mentioned above, the remaining fly ball free agent pitchers would be guys who the Twins might grab as a fourth of fifth starter in their 2020 rotation.
Jordan Lyles, RHP, 29 years old
In his last two seasons, where he has played for four different teams, Lyles had a fly ball rate of 39.4 percent and a dreadful 16.1 percent homerun per fly-ball rate. Prior to his last two seasons he was more of a ground ball pitcher, but he’s been relying more on his fastball and curveball while using his sinker significantly less. Part of me wonders if this is partly because of pitching at Coors for three plus years of his career. Lyles' peripherals aren’t attractive, but the former 38th overall pick is young and will be cheap if the Twins decide to spend big on other names. If Wes Johnson can work his magic and improve Lyles' control, then we could tap into what the Astros saw back when they drafted him in 2008.
Rick Porcello, RHP, 30 years old
How is Rick Porcello only 30-years-old? It’s crazy to think he was the game 163 starter for the Tigers back in 2009. Ten seasons and one Cy Young Award later, Porcello enters the 2020 free agent class after one of his worst seasons as a pro. That said, Porcello might fit right in with Baldelli’s philosophy with his starting pitchers as well as the Twins defense. In 2019, Porcello was significantly worse the third time through the batting order than he was the first two times. One indication is his home run per fly-ball rate went from average to awful, per FanGraphs, and his K/BB went from above average to awful. As Baldelli did with Odorizzi in 2019, the key to Porcello may be not to let him face the opponent a third time through the order.
Drew Smyly, LHP, 30 years old
Another former Tiger, Drew Smyly, is a cheap name the Twins could add to the bottom of their rotation. Smyly has struggled with injuries for much of his career, so much so that he did not make a major league appearance in 2017 or 2018 before being signed by the Phillies in late July of 2019. He’s always been an intriguing pitcher when healthy as he has the ability to strike out more than one batter per inning. In his return, he boasted an above average K/BB of 3.24 but had a dreadful 19.1 percent home run per fly-ball rate in 62 2/3 innings, per FanGraphs. Taking the small sample into consideration, the good news is that the K/BB is right around his career averages while the home run per fly-ball rate is significantly higher.
Of course none of the names above are the sexy names we are hoping the Twins will get, but at the end of the day the Twins need to find four guys who can take the ball every fifth day. Even the Houston Astros don’t have the sexiest of names as their fourth and fifth starters, but somebody has to do the job.
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