2017 Twins Player Predictions: Joe Mauer

ThejacKmp · March 28, 2017

Because of minimal exposure to LHP, BA is up, K's are down. Leads the team in hitting into double plays. Continues to hit too many ground balls. Extra base hits are about the same. Power is minimal and the opposition plays him to hit the other way - which he does. His 2 trips to the DL for vague ailments result in a call up of Vargas and increased time at DH by both Vargas and Grossman. After the season is over, Joe seriously considers retirement as he can no longer perform at the level he was accustomed to in his earlier/younger years. Quietly, the Twins hope he calls it a career.

God you're depressing.

ThejacKmp · March 28, 2017

This is definitely a pipedream, but I recall LaVell mentioning that Joe had found a flaw in his swing the week before the strained Quads. He corrected it, and was on fire that week hitting like old Joe (or should I say young Joe, Metrodome Joe even). What if that flaw had to do with shifting his weight properly, which is where power hitters get their power from. He strains the Quads because he was not in proper shape because he hadn't been using those particular muscles in that way all season. It is rather odd to strain both of your quads at the same time, unless it is a fundamental difference in his swing that changed. Morneau won the batting title with the Rockies three years after his concussion, and I don't believe it was just a Rocky Mountain High. He did show a better eye at the plate last year three years removed from the concussion. I would predict Joe is once again over .300 and slugs 18 homers. Molitor will have to bat him fourth and the twins will keep Dozier as they contend for the division with an injury riddled Indians squad.

This is more like it. Unfettered enthusiasm with little basis in reality. That's March baseball talk.

ThejacKmp · March 28, 2017

I'm cautiously optimistic about Mauer. in 2016 his K% was down and BB% was up vs 2015. Also, he improved his batted ball profile in literally every category last year. More hard hit balls, fewer softly hit balls, fewer ground balls, more flies and liners, higher HR/FB%, and fewer infield flies. Yet his BABIP went down. That screams bad luck.

I've been saying the BABIP all off-season. I'm glad it wasn't a figment of my imagination.

Bark's Lounge · March 28, 2017

Bark off of his medicine:

610PA • .318 Avg. • 23HR • 41-2B • .930OPS

Bark on his Medicine:

475PA • .267BA • 8HR • 27-2B • 750OPS

Thrylos · March 28, 2017

.290/.400/.435, 430PA, 15 HR

Mike Sixel · March 28, 2017

Bark off of his medicine:
610PA • .318 Avg. • 23HR • 41-2B • .930OPS

Bark on his Medicine:
475PA • .267BA • 8HR • 27-2B • 750OPS

funny, if I was on your meds, you could reverse those! magic those meds are!

ThejacKmp · March 28, 2017

Mauer will lead the league in fastballs taken down the middle for 0-1 counts.

Mauer's first pitch strike % (60.1%) is right about league average (59.5%). So taking that first pitch doesn't appear to be hurting him much (and perhaps helping him and his teammates see more of pitchers).

Just a thought.

Bark's Lounge · March 28, 2017

Switch out the word medicine and the possibilities have no limit.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Bark's Lounge

Oldgoat_MN · March 28, 2017

...
Sorry....the guy just annoys me.

And we like Mauer for other reasons, too.

ThejacKmp · March 28, 2017

Molitor will have to bat him fourth and the twins will keep Dozier as they contend for the division with an injury riddled Indians squad.

I hope this happens but no way Mauer bats 4th even if he hits 18 bombs. Much better choices in Sano, Vargas etc. Mauer in your scenario is the ideal #2 or #3 hitter. Huge OBP, pop. I hope this happens more than almost anything.

USAFChief · March 28, 2017

And we like Mauer for other reasons, too.

well played sir.

LeatherAntenna · March 29, 2017

Mauer will lead the league in fastballs taken down the middle for 0-1 counts, 3 hoppers to second, soft flares to left, excuses offered on TD, LH batters box smoothing out, and aggravating Chief.
He'll put up less than 60 RBI, a lower SLG than every regular first baseman in MLB, and spend time on the DL with some non specific ailment or another.
Sorry....the guy just annoys me.

. Come on, he has doubled his HR production in the 7 year sum total from his 2009 contract year. Isn't that what we expect from a first baseman? I get it that he would like to do more for the team, but it is not going to happen. I see a man trying to save his pride at some point this year and stepping out of the way for a more productive youngster to excel-at least that is a class way to move on and is what he should do.

March 29, 2017

Seth,

Good write-up. It matches what I've been thinking, but I recently wondered if there is a flaw in the analysis, because it means that at bats that should be Mauer's will instead be taken by Park (just DFAd), Grossman (minor league free agent; could be DFAd if Granite looks ready and/or his May 2016 looks like a one-time thing), Swiss Cheese Army Knife Santana (should be DFAd soon) and Vargas (starting the year in the minors). It all makes sense that Mauer should receive more rest, until you think about who would replace him.

D.C Twins · March 29, 2017

Mauer was an outstanding talent and we were fotunate to have him (Mark Prior anyone?!) He earned every penny that the Twins have paid him over his entire career. He will be an asset to the community and possibly the Twins after he retires.

Having said that, he has not been the same player since the injury. I hope for his sake and the team's sake that he is utilized as described in multiple posts above for his last two years

Jham · March 29, 2017

I am not able to project Mauer's hitting for 2017. I do not think he will improve except as Molitor removes him from games where he is destined to fail. So I went crazy trying to see how players decline and learned a lot.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ has a key statement - In the past few seasons, hitters no longer improve once they arrive in the majors. Instead, their performance is constant until they begin to decline, which, on average, is at 26 years old. (This is an reminder of why players like Vargas need to play now if we want to maximize their potential.)

Wait, aren't you always going on and on about playing young guys? If the trend is that players aren't going to improve with MLB experience, then aren't the Twins wise to make players beat the door down to break into the league? I mean, if Vargas is as good as he'll ever be, is it really vital that he plays? Or anyone who isn't really ready to be better than league average?

Mauer will continue to guess more, and K more. Swing rate will be similar, walk rate too. Average will be down, power up. .247/337/404 480AB, 31 2B, 14HR.

Bill Brown69 · March 29, 2017

While I agree that Joe shouldn't play much against lefty starters I don't know how you can sit Kepler, Rosario and Joe so I predict he plays more than most of the posters think.

My ideal lineup has Joe batting 5th to split Sano and Park who are interchangeable depending on who is hot. With that in mind and my rose colored (March) glasses on,,,

535PA .287BA /23 2B/ 12HR/115 BB/ 79RBI/ 94Runs

Logic for that, pitching to Mauer with a strikeout prone hitter behind him with a runner on 2nd and 2 out is stupid so Joe takes a ton of walks. That leads to a .439 OB% If he is on base that much he will score.

Career high in walks, 2nd highest OB%, tied for second highest in Runs and TD posters will be all over him for lack of RBI from the 5 hole!

Mr. Brooks · March 29, 2017

Mauer was an outstanding talent and we were fotunate to have him (Mark Prior anyone?!) He earned every penny that the Twins have paid him over his entire career. He will be an asset to the community and possibly the Twins after he retires.

Having said that, he has not been the same player since the injury. I hope for his sake and the team's sake that he is utilized as described in multiple posts above for his last two years

He lives in Florida.

How is he going to be an asset to the community after he retires?

Otto von Ballpark · March 29, 2017

He lives in Florida.
How is he going to be an asset to the community after he retires?

Mauer moved back to Minnesota in 2013 after the birth of his daughters:

http://www.twincities.com/2016/02/16/fatherhood-has-grounded-joe-mauer-but-twins-first-baseman-anxious-to-win/

caninatl04 · March 29, 2017

I'm sure its a very small sample size, but are there any numbers for Joe as a pinch-hitter / mid-game replacement against RHP?

I ask since I could foresee a number of games where Park starts against a LH starter, but is replaced by Mauer when RH relievers come in.

Do we agree that Mauer's defense at first is better than Park's?

wabene · March 30, 2017

Mauer will lead the league in fastballs taken down the middle for 0-1 counts, 3 hoppers to second, soft flares to left, excuses offered on TD, LH batters box smoothing out, and aggravating Chief.He'll put up less than 60 RBI, a lower SLG than every regular first baseman in MLB, and spend time on the DL with some non specific ailment or another.Sorry....the guy just annoys me.

Well gall-lee Chief garsh that's not very nice

MauerState7 · March 30, 2017

I hope this happens but no way Mauer bats 4th even if he hits 18 bombs. Much better choices in Sano, Vargas etc. Mauer in your scenario is the ideal #2 or #3 hitter. Huge OBP, pop. I hope this happens more than almost anything.

Thats a good point, but I also envision Buxton hitting 3rd, Dozier Second and Polanco Leading off. I know I am being overly optimistic, but that is what this time of year is for. Buxton will be in the 70 range in terms of XBH and although he is a good runner, I don't see him stealing more that 25-30 bags. I also see a scenario where Dozier comes back down to earth and returns to his leadoff role, moving everyone up.

Doomtints · March 30, 2017

PREDICTIONS

Joe Mauer: 381 at-bats, .281/.350/.404 (.754), 19 doubles, 2 triples, 9 home runs.

.270 - .280 / .350 - .365 / .385 - .400

9 HR, 30 2b, 3 3B

DrNeau · March 30, 2017

A few things:

I predict Joe, of all qualifying MLB 1B, will rank dead last in % of swings at pitches in the strike zone - same as he did last year.

I predict Joe, of all qualifying MLB 1B, will rank dead last in % of swings at pitches - period - same as he did last year.

You can't produce if you don't swing the bat. Having said this, and after he has continued to demonstrate he will not change his approach and swing hard at strikes earlier in the count, even with runners in scoring position, I predict his production will slightly decline.

2017 Prediction:

HR: 9

RBI: 45

SLG: .375

OBP: .350

Pitiful numbers for a starting AL 1B. I predict a lot more excuses will follow.

Pius Jefferson · April 1, 2017

Hot April.

Horrible May

Bad June

Better July

Worse August

Bad September.

ashbury · April 2, 2017

Hot April.

Horrible May

Bad June

Better July

Worse August

Bad September.

But, enough about the weather and mosquito forecast in the Cities.

Pardon My Dinger · April 2, 2017

Mauer as a DH, which I think will happen ~1 month after Park gets the call (June, roughly), might be very compelling.

Pius Jefferson · April 2, 2017

But, enough about the weather and mosquito forecast in the Cities.

Unfortunately Mauer is becoming very predictable.

Pius Jefferson · April 2, 2017

Is there any chance with a better '17 and contract down to two years that Mauer would wave his no trade clause?

sploorp · April 2, 2017

Is there any chance with a better '17 and contract down to two years that Mauer would wave his no trade clause?

Why would he do something like that for? Who would want him even with the Twins picking up a big chunk of his salary. Unless he has a career ending injury, he's a Twin at least until the end of his contract. I think the bigger question is if he gets another deal after this contract ends.

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