2017 Twins Player Predictions: Jason Castro

I think if they use him well and mix in Giminez or Garver vs lefties that a .674 OPS is definitely low balling. I could see a .700 OPS if he gets limitied LvL AB's.

Steamer .224 .303 .374
ZiPS  .221 .299 .374
PECOTA  .239 .313 .405

I'm a little worried overall about Castro. There are enough warning signs with his profile (particular the increasing amount of Ks) that it wouldn't be shocking to see his offensive output crater. Therefore, I'm tentatively going to take the under on a .675 OPS.

Offensively, I'm most interested where his batting average will sit.  .210 is painful.  .230 is tolerable.  His 2013 season at .276 would be amazing.  His BABIP numbers give a good indication of where he projects.  MLB average BABIP is about .297-.300.  The year he hit .276, his BABIP was .351.  A very lucky year for him.   The last three years where he hit, .222, .211, and .210, his BABIP was .294, .280, .297, respectively.  A bit on the unlucky side, perhaps.  Using these three years, and MLB average BABIP of .297, would say he projects to hit at .219.  Again, I would be happy if he hits over .230 and hits over 10 homeruns.  

Regarding those homeruns, I looked at his batted balls chart against RHP from 2014-2016 on Fangraphs (cannot figure out how to paste chart here).  20 HR to right field.  2 to center field. 10 to left field.  6 of them to left field were really short (short porch in Houston).  Those 6 would not be homeruns at Target Field.  You might ask about deep flies to Tal's Hill in Houston that would be Target Field homeruns?  It looks like Castro doesn't hit many deep fly ball to center.  So, we might see a regression in homeruns this year.

Steamer .224 .303 .374
ZiPS  .221 .299 .374
PECOTA  .239 .313 .405

I'm a little worried overall about Castro. There are enough warning signs with his profile (particular the increasing amount of Ks) that it wouldn't be shocking to see his offensive output crater. Therefore, I'm tentatively going to take the under on a .675 OPS.

Regarding his strikeout numbers, you can look at his minor league numbers and his first two MLB seasons (2010 and 2012) and he had a walk rate of around 15%ish.  But, he only averaged 6 homeruns per 400 plate appearances.  I think at some point around 2012-2013 someone told him that if he is going to have any value whatsoever as a hitter, he needed to start popping some dingers.  His strikeout rate doubled to about 30%, and his homer rate about doubled to 12.3 HR per 400 plate appearances.  Has that made him more valuable as a hitter?  I don't know.  I think modern analytics say probably yes.  I don't think he'll change his approach given his successful offensive year in 2013.

It would be ideal if he could just hit like Henry Blanco did when he was a Twin.  Blanco did not have a great batting average, but he banged out doubles and home runs when it mattered.  He looked like a superstar at the right moments.  

 

If Castro can play defense as some people suspect and he can swoop in offensively with a superman cape like Blanco did, all will be fine. It's OK if he's Clark Kent the rest of the time at the plate.

I know analytics does not tell the whole story, but I'd point out that Henry Blanco's 'Clutch' stat was -0.65 with the Twins in 2004.  FYI Jason Castro's average yearly MLB Clutch value is -0.2.  Interpretation chart below (via Fangraphs):

Rating                Clutch
Excellent               2.0
Great                    1.0
Above Average     0.5
Average                0.0
Below Average    -0.5
Poor                    -1.0
Awful                   -2.0

Slightly off-topic, but for fun, I thought I'd also share a projected Twins lineup, with 2016 clutch values shown:

Polanco (0.1)
Mauer (-1.8)
Dozier (-2.3)
Sano (-0.5)

Buxton (-1.5)
Kepler (-1.1)
Park (-0.9)
Castro (0.1)

Rosario (-1.0)

Well that's depressing.
 

Castro is a .750 OPS player against RHP and a .500-.530 guy against LHP.

 

Castro took 26% of his plate appearances against LHP in 2016.

 

I did a quick spot check and the league average for LHB against LHP is just a tick over 30%.

 

So Castro was already seeing his plate appearances against LHP minimized by the Astros.

 

There may be a bit more wiggle room in there as you push those plate appearances toward 20% but I'm skeptical the Twins, even with aggressive platooning, will be able to get it below that number.

 

So, maybe there's room to improve there but not a lot. I think Seth's .675 OPS prediction is pretty fair. Maybe the Twins could try to put that toward .690 but large gains will not be found through platooning.

I know that lineup position has largely been proven to not profoundly impact runs scored, but in some lineups the 7,8,9,1 is Park, Castro, Buxton, Dozier. I think that the opposition would rather not deploy a LOOGY to get Castro out in that case when they could save them for Kepler, Mauer, Rosario. Surrounding Castro with LHH would only increase his PA vs LHP. 

Anyone know if opposing teams tend to deploy pull-shifts for Castro?  He seems to me to be fairly pull-happy, especially on infield grounders.  Perhaps there could be a benefit here to putting a speedy guy like Buxton in the lineup in front of Castro, so that his steal threat and first-to-third threat makes the other team less likely to shift?

On that note, does anyone know if a team is less likely to shift when there's a speedy runner on first?

That's a valid point.

 

And I'm not sure lineup position in regards to handedness has been proven irrelevant. Most conversations I've seen revolve around stuff like whether Dozier should hit second or fifth and whether that matters (ignoring Dozier's home runs, just speaking generally about any player, really).

 

I think handedness matters quite a bit. If you stack three lefties in a row, those lefties are going to suffer in the last third of the game as managers throw lefty relievers at them at least once a game, possibly multiple times a game if possible.

 

If you're a lefty facing LHP 10% more often than a typical lefty bat, your season statistics are going to suffer and the difference won't be negligible. Many LHB hit LHP at a .150-.200 lower OPS. That's not a small difference, that's the kind of thing that can move a player's overall season OPS down .020 or more points.

Of course they *might* suffer later in the game but they will score more runs early in games (assuming the starter is opposite-handed) over time, all else being equal.

The other thing is, conventional bullpen managment says to save your best relievers for leads, particularly when on the road. Take a tie game or +1 lead into the 7th and you might never have to worry about facing a lefty or, at least, not the best lefty in some cases.

That's true about starters but lefties get that advantage either way. It doesn't matter if they're split up or in a row. Yes, bunching them together might impact run-scoring a bit but I was thinking of individual OPS performance, which it won't affect.

 

As for leads/deficits late in games, I suspect the lead/deficit would have to be pretty substantial for a manager not to say "aw hell, three lefties are coming in a row, I'm just going to throw a lefty out there to make sure nothing bad happens". Every pen has one lefty reliever and lots have two of them. Chances are, one of them isn't amazing so why not put him out there to face a trio of LHB?

From an individual perspective there are costs too. How do you split up 3 lefties? Either bump them up, down, or take one of them out of the order altogether. Two out of three choices will reduce the number of PAs against RH starters. Since most starters are RH and most bullpen arms are RH too. If anything I would assume the overall impact of conventional L-R-L-R staggering is to decrease OPS, not increase it.

That's a valid point.

 

And I'm not sure lineup position in regards to handedness has been proven irrelevant. Most conversations I've seen revolve around stuff like whether Dozier should hit second or fifth and whether that matters (ignoring Dozier's home runs, just speaking generally about any player, really).

 

I think handedness matters quite a bit. If you stack three lefties in a row, those lefties are going to suffer in the last third of the game as managers throw lefty relievers at them at least once a game, possibly multiple times a game if possible.

 

If you're a lefty facing LHP 10% more often than a typical lefty bat, your season statistics are going to suffer and the difference won't be negligible. Many LHB hit LHP at a .150-.200 lower OPS. That's not a small difference, that's the kind of thing that can move a player's overall season OPS down .020 or more points.

Is the impact of the lineup construction great enough to move players around in the order to potentially protect platoon hitters? In the 7,8,9,1 of Park, Castro, Buxton, Dozier that I used as an example, that's assumes they belong in those spots. If Buxton is hitting like he did in September, I hope he is not in the 9 spot. I really have no point to all of this except it would be ideal to employ platoon hitters near each other while breaking up their handedness if possible. I would really like to keep Castro and Rosario from slotting back to back in the lineup.

True, but that knife cuts in both directions. If you group LHB against righties, that means you're also bunching RHB against righties. The effect isn't as great (usually, anyway) but you're comprising parts of your lineup either way.

 

And in those later innings, the opposing manager doesn't even have to think about it. You've created the perfect storm for him to exploit with left/right pitching matchups.

Well the caveat is "all else being equal." You wouldn't bat Castro in front of Dozier just because he's LH. But you wouldn't swap Park for Mauer against a RH starter just to break up Kepler and Rosario. Even if the opposition brings in a LOOGY later on you only traded one PA versus what, two, three against the starting pitcher?