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    “Clean Books” and “Good Books” are Two Different Things. Don’t Make a Trade You’ll Regret.


    Greggory Masterson

    Some good books are clean. Some clean books are good. But just because a team’s book is clean, that doesn’t mean the organization is attractive to buyers.

    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

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    Ahead of the impending sale of the Minnesota Twins, many have speculated about what the team can do today to make the organization more attractive to potential buyers. One of the most common ideas that come up is that a new owner would want clean books—no messy contracts, no back payments to aging players, or money retained in trades. Basically, there shouldn’t be money that the new guy has to deal with for the next decade whether they like it or not.

    However, when that general idea is extended to mean that a new owner doesn’t want any money tied up, we might be missing the point a bit. One tangible example is some fans’ opinion that a new owner wouldn’t want to sign up for paying Carlos Correa $100 million for the first three years of their regime. In that case, the team should try to flip Correa to present this hypothetical owner with clean books.

    This idea makes sense at the most rudimentary level: some big hotshot billionaire is in this business to make money! Don’t sign him up for spending money that he didn’t agree to!

    However, that’s probably not exactly how this works. You’re more likely to see the save every penny, please don’t spend my money approach from more tenured, old-school owners—or at least from owners who have owned the team for more than five years. Baltimore and Miami saw $30-$40 million spikes in their first years under new ownership. We’re much more likely to see a new owner focus more on success than an older one. Shoot, John Rubenstein is practically begging the Orioles to spend his money.

    Recent reports suggest Justin and Mat Ishbia have emerged as potential buyers of the team, and from their history with the Phoenix Suns, it’s not hard to imagine them taking more of a winning focus than a moneymaking focus. Of course, I could be completely wrong in this imagining, or some other rich person might buy the team, but you can use those brothers as stand-ins for this imaginary owner if you want.

    Would a new owner who wants to win now prefer to greenlight moves for the team in his own image? Sure. But there’s a lot that goes into that. Let’s stick with Correa, as an example. Sure, you could flip him for some modest prospect package and have his remaining $92 million off the books for 2026 and beyond. That makes the books cleaner.

    Do you know what it doesn’t make cleaner? Anything else.

    Congrats, you’ve rid yourself of that pesky All-Star shortstop. Next step? Replace that pesky All-Star shortstop on your own. You’re probably going to need to win a new bidding war. Your 2026 options are Bo Bichette and the ghost of Trevor Story. Oh, you’re okay with just finding a shortstop, and he doesn’t need to be an All-Star? You’ll have the pick of the litter between David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, and Brooks Lee—a kid who’s already slow at 24. I forget: is quickness important at shortstop?

    Just because a book is “clean” doesn’t mean it’s good. There are no albatross contracts on this team. The worst contract, right now, belongs to Christian Vázquez—a one-year, $10-million contract for a high-end backup catcher whom some team would likely pay for 60% of if the team wants to move him. There are no long-term deals here. There’s no Giancarlo Stanton-like contracts or Rafael Devers and Xander Boegarts-esque deals that reach into the 2030s.

    The Twins’ closest things to albatross contracts are Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton, the longest of which reaches into 2028. In fact, those three are the only players with guaranteed contracts past 2026, which would, in all practicality, be the new ownership group’s first year.

    We’ve already gone over Correa’s deal, but paying an All-Star shortstop in his early thirties that amount of money isn’t the end of the world. He needs to stay healthy, but if that’s your worst long-term contract, you have bigger fish to fry as a new ownership group.

    López is only under contract through 2027 and has shown the ability to be an elite pitcher. He’s stayed healthy, and he’s on a relatively team-friendly contract, compared to what pitchers of his caliber are making in free agency right now. A new owner is not getting a López-tier starter for $21.75 million right now. It is more work to get rid of him and replace him.

    Buxton, at this point, will likely never be fully healthy for a season. That’s part of the deal. But he’s an All-Star-caliber player when healthy, and the $15 million that he’s making each year through 2028 is not that much money compared to the rest of the league. Ahead of 2025, that’s not even a top-100 contract per year. By 2028, it will be even more insignificant.

    And again, those are the only three players on guaranteed contracts after 2026. Actually, I fibbed. They’re the only three contracts on the books after this year. I’m not a billionaire, but that seems pretty palatable. There’s still tons of room to maneuver and style the team as the new guy sees fit. It’s not like the three names tied up are Anthony Rendon, Miguel Cabrera, and Stephen Strasburg. These are good books. There’s a nonzero chance that moving those contracts would make the team less valuable.

    The elephant in the room is that it might not matter what the new owners want to do. It’s possible that the Pohlad family might have more of an eye on the money today, wanting to get down to a magical payroll level that preserves their own funds ahead of the sale. That’s a totally different thing, though. They’re not doing that for the sale's profitability or the team's medium-term outlook for a new ownership group, one that would probably prefer not to build from scratch. They’d be doing that for liquidity today, in this fictitious universe that I made up in my head.

    Nonetheless, fans shouldn’t be so quick to assume that the best thing for the sale of the franchise is a housecleaning on the active roster. Such efforts might do the opposite. Some good books are clean, but not all clean books are good. The books are only good if they’re setting the team up for success, and the books that have Correa, López and Buxton on them do that better than any realistic set of books without them.

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    13 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

    After Burnes signed with Arizona I'm seeing Pablo headed to Baltimore. They went the rental route but I think they may want more security this time around. Basallo and McDermott coming the Twins way? Just a hunch here.

    You may be correct but Basallo and Mayo is a firm "NO" from me. Basallo might be a decent slugging first baseman after he no longer uses his catcher's glove, but pitching is hard to find. I was willing to go Lopez for Jarren Duran but Boston is smart enough to sign a lesser free agent instead.

    12 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

    After Burnes signed with Arizona I'm seeing Pablo headed to Baltimore.

    I agree with sweetmusicviola16, Baltimore may step up their pursuit of Pablo.  

    First:  The Orioles do not have the $7.55 million at their disposal that the Twins and 6-7 other teams do to make a strong play for Roki Sasaki.  Further, no one in their organization has publicly stated that they even have interest in pursuing Sasaki (However, Falvey HAS stated the Twins "have interest").

    Second:  The young talent that the Orioles have is just starting to matriculate to the majors, but they don't have room to play everybody.  Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Sam Basallo are all in the IF.  Heston Kjerstad, Colt Cowser, and Enrique Bradfield are all in the OF.  The Orioles also have Tyler O'Neill and Ced Mullins and for the time being, Anthony Santander in the OF as veterans.

    Something has to give.  And in their starting rotation, CBS Sports only lists Gray-Rod, Eflin and Kremer.  The Orioles have a massive need for SP.  A trade of Lopez AND Paddack wouldn't out of the realm of possibility.  

    Holiday is an elite SS.  The problem he has is that Gunnar Henderson is ALSO an elite SS.  Right now, Baltimore has Holiday penciled in at 2B with Westburg at 3B, but that's an awfully young IF to compete for the post season with.  You'd have to go back to Cey, Russell, Lopes and Garvey to get a similar comparison, but Russell had been up since 1969 in several stints and had played more OF than SS.  Bradfield is an intriguing CF candidate.  He'll be 23 this season and has reached AA.  Last year in 469 PA's he hit .272 with an OPS of .729.  He walked 50 times and K'd 72.  He also stole 74 bases.  The only slight drawback is that he's a LH hitter.  With E-Rod and Jenkins on the way the Twins would be looking at an all LH hitting OF.  But Bradfield could be that leadoff hitter.  Luke Keaschall would be the RH hitting complement to them if he wasn't already starting at 2B/1B.  

    The other team the Orioles are sure to talk with is Seattle with the target being Luis Castillo.  Castillo has seen his velo dip a bit and his K rate slip a bit, but he's still an Ace-caliber SP.  Seattle, like the Twins also has the full bag of $7.55 million to go after Roki Sasaki to replace Castillo with should they decide to pillage talent from the Orioles.

    If you think CBS is being harsh by only listing 3 SP's on the Orioles depth chart, ESPN only adds the injury prone John Means to the rotation leaving only 4 somewhat viable candidates.  The Orioles are in a desperate situation.  Some of that young talent will need to moved.  What if Jackson Holiday could be had in a Lopez & Paddack deal?  Play him at 2B and Lewis at 1B for 2025, see how it goes and maybe move Correa to 3B for 2026 and Holiday to SS?  Lee at 2B and Lewis at 1B? 

    The only way I do this is if I end up with Sasaki to replace Lopez in the rotation.  That should be determined around the middle of January.  If Baltimore hasn't made a deal for Luis Castillo by then and Sasaki is a Twin, the Twins could get quite a bit back from Baltimore and further "right size" the payroll.   

    7 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    I agree with sweetmusicviola16, Baltimore may step up their pursuit of Pablo.  

    First:  The Orioles do not have the $7.55 million at their disposal that the Twins and 6-7 other teams do to make a strong play for Roki Sasaki.  Further, no one in their organization has publicly stated that they even have interest in pursuing Sasaki (However, Falvey HAS stated the Twins "have interest").

    Second:  The young talent that the Orioles have is just starting to matriculate to the majors, but they don't have room to play everybody.  Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Sam Basallo are all in the IF.  Heston Kjerstad, Colt Cowser, and Enrique Bradfield are all in the OF.  The Orioles also have Tyler O'Neill and Ced Mullins and for the time being, Anthony Santander in the OF as veterans.

    Something has to give.  And in their starting rotation, CBS Sports only lists Gray-Rod, Eflin and Kremer.  The Orioles have a massive need for SP.  A trade of Lopez AND Paddack wouldn't out of the realm of possibility.  

    Holiday is an elite SS.  The problem he has is that Gunnar Henderson is ALSO an elite SS.  Right now, Baltimore has Holiday penciled in at 2B with Westburg at 3B, but that's an awfully young IF to compete for the post season with.  You'd have to go back to Cey, Russell, Lopes and Garvey to get a similar comparison, but Russell had been up since 1969 in several stints and had played more OF than SS.  Bradfield is an intriguing CF candidate.  He'll be 23 this season and has reached AA.  Last year in 469 PA's he hit .272 with an OPS of .729.  He walked 50 times and K'd 72.  He also stole 74 bases.  The only slight drawback is that he's a LH hitter.  With E-Rod and Jenkins on the way the Twins would be looking at an all LH hitting OF.  But Bradfield could be that leadoff hitter.  Luke Keaschall would be the RH hitting complement to them if he wasn't already starting at 2B/1B.  

    The other team the Orioles are sure to talk with is Seattle with the target being Luis Castillo.  Castillo has seen his velo dip a bit and his K rate slip a bit, but he's still an Ace-caliber SP.  Seattle, like the Twins also has the full bag of $7.55 million to go after Roki Sasaki to replace Castillo with should they decide to pillage talent from the Orioles.

    If you think CBS is being harsh by only listing 3 SP's on the Orioles depth chart, ESPN only adds the injury prone John Means to the rotation leaving only 4 somewhat viable candidates.  The Orioles are in a desperate situation.  Some of that young talent will need to moved.  What if Jackson Holiday could be had in a Lopez & Paddack deal?  Play him at 2B and Lewis at 1B for 2025, see how it goes and maybe move Correa to 3B for 2026 and Holiday to SS?  Lee at 2B and Lewis at 1B? 

    The only way I do this is if I end up with Sasaki to replace Lopez in the rotation.  That should be determined around the middle of January.  If Baltimore hasn't made a deal for Luis Castillo by then and Sasaki is a Twin, the Twins could get quite a bit back from Baltimore and further "right size" the payroll.   

    I agree with you also. I'm not sure of which pieces would best fit together but I do see Baltimore as a team that will heavily pursue Lopez because they have to. They're in a corner right now. Sure they could also pivot to Flaherty and Pivetta but Lopez is a better option as far as talent level goes. And as you mentioned, the prospects either need to play and have a place to play or they just crash and burn.

    22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Almost nobody in baseball is slower than Brooks Lee. Correa wins easily.

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed

    You are correct. Correa is 26.8, and Lee is 25 something. Lee is slow ..

    Buxton made 15 million base on playing 102 games. If you took what he gets paid base on 102 games like 147,000 per game then if he played like 162 games like many players he's be making like near 24 million per season. It's really a bad contract. 

     

    52 minutes ago, JesusisLord7 said:

    Buxton made 15 million base on playing 102 games. If you took what he gets paid base on 102 games like 147,000 per game then if he played like 162 games like many players he's be making like near 24 million per season. It's really a bad contract. 

     

    15 million for what Buxton provides when he plays is cheap 

    On 12/28/2024 at 6:11 AM, mikelink45 said:

    Not my money and I do not understand salaries and revenues in the economic region that is MLB.  So my questions are a little different.  Is there some financial crisis in the Pohlad holdings that make them suddenly in need of money?...

    Possibly. The Pohlad family owns a lot of commercial property, and commercial property got an absolute thrashing in terms of value post-COVID. The family has been working to diversify their holdings, but it's not like these big commercial properties are liquid right now. Selling the Twins would give them lots of liquidity they need to be flexible in growing business value.

    https://tcbmag.com/tcbs-2022-people-of-the-year/
     

    Quote

    United Properties’ Downtown Portfolio

    1990s: RSM Plaza, 8th and Nicollet: United’s first downtown acquisition—a building from 1969—repositioned an aging office tower into a contemporary showpiece. 

    2009: Target Field

    2010: Ford Center, North Loop: United’s first major conversion took a 1912 warehouse/manufacturing building across from Target Field and converted it into modern office space.

    2010: Loose Wiles Building, North Loop: Redevelopment of a vacant turn-of-the-20th-century office building on Washington Avenue.

    2013: 505 Nicollet Mall: Redeveloped the shuttered Neiman Marcus department store into Centerpoint Energy’s Minnesota headquarters.

    2014: Be the Match HQ, North Loop: Offices for the nonprofit organization, located across from Ford Center.

    2016: Target Field Station: Includes Element Hotel, Fillmore music venue, and Caribou Coffee.

    2016: 651 Nicollet Mall: Redeveloped former Saks Fifth Avenue into retail and office space, plus new Douglas Dayton YMCA.

    2017: The Nordic/Sable, North Loop: Mixed-use project across from Loose Wiles, including a half-acre public plaza, some of North Loop’s only public space.

    2018: The Kickernick, Warehouse District: Renovation of an historic building in a troubled section of downtown.

    2022: RBC Gateway, 250 Nicollet Mall: A $450 million development, the city’s largest- mixed-use project, containing office space, Four Seasons Hotel, and condos. Generated $10.4 million in a land sale that went to the Minneapolis Affordable Housing Initiative.

    Mid-2020s: Upper Harbor Terminal, North Minneapolis riverfront: 500 units of affordable housing, outdoor amphitheater, and 150,000 square feet of commercial space will be the hallmarks of the $175 million project when completed mid-decade.

     

    On 12/29/2024 at 10:55 AM, JesusisLord7 said:

    I know that's not how he really gets paid but I'm just trying to measure his productivity. 

     

    Last year his productivity was $4M per WAR so he produced roughly double the average free agent.




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