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    Byron Buxton is Just a Right-Handed Max Kepler Right Now


    Matthew Trueblood

    Unfortunately, it’s only fair to point out that, right now, Byron Buxton is no more helpful than his longtime teammate.

    Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

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    For weeks now, Twins fans have clamored for the team to cut ties with Max Kepler. At age 30, and with only a team option remaining on the team-friendly extension he signed several years ago, Kepler is expendable. Fans are right not to consider him valuable, at the moment. Unfortunately, it’s only fair to point out that Byron Buxton is no more helpful than his longtime teammate.

    If this seems melodramatic, it’s only because Buxton’s hot streaks can be so volcanic that they disguise the true depths to which he plunges during cold streaks. In his first four games back from the injured list, he’s 0-16, with ten strikeouts. Lest you think it’s just rust that needs shaking off, though, Buxton is hitting just .149/.289/.267 since May 1. The culprit for these long struggles is related to the fact that he was playing through chronic injury, even before being sidelined due to his ribs, but that doesn’t mean that it will magically be ameliorated, even by time and rest.

    No, the problem here is that Buxton is genuinely becoming a right-handed analog of Kepler. Since the start of 2022, he has a .248 batting average on balls in play. This is the statistic that best captures what makes Kepler tantalizing and maddening. For years, fans have (incorrectly) expected Kepler’s BABIP to stabilize and regress toward the league’s average figure, near .300, but Kepler’s approach and his swing path don’t lend themselves to the skill that is BABIP. He runs extremely low numbers in that category not due to bad luck or defensive alignments, but because of the way he swings and the pitches at which he chooses to do so.

    The very same set of choices underpin Buxton’s game, at this point in his career. He’s a dead-pull, fly ball hitter, but more importantly, he’s a hitter focused on making contact far in front of home plate. He’s not merely quick to the ball in a way that naturally leads to pulling it; he’s built a swing designed to intercept the ball after the bat has passed the point of being parallel with the front of home plate, and well before the ball actually gets to the plate. You can see it when looking at his swings in some key situations. 


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    Nice write up, Matthew. 
    How much of Buxton’s current batting issues are related to his knee. If his knee is so bad that the is unable/ not advised to play CF, why don’t the Twins put him on the IL and keep him there until he is well enough to play CF, because the current situation is not beneficial to Buxton or the Team. 

    The DH spot in a lineup is for some teams a spot for an above average hitting specialist. Unfortunately for us, it seems to be a spot to get Buck in as many games as possible. So, I guess how the team does matters less than the number of games he plays in?? I don't get it. 

    3 hours ago, Fritzderkat said:

    The comparison with Mickey Mantle does Buxton no favors.

    When it comes to durability those two names have no business being in the same sentence together.  It took a terminal disease for which there is no cure to force Mantle out of the lineup.  Whereas Buck, if he sneezes wrong, is on the DL for 15 days.

    9 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

    The only way Buxton is tradable for literally anything ( a middling A prospect, a GroupOn coupon) is for the Twins to eat $95  million of his contract. 

    I'd suggest "trading" him to St. Paul, but he would be blocking prospects.

    Tony Oliva was a tremendous player who had really bad knees and had his career tragically cut short as a result. IIRC, he finished as a DH, even though he wasn't the same player. And yet, because of what he was and did, even with a shortened career, he is revered. And yet, it seems some are already writing an obituary for Buxton's career. 

    Is there a chance his knees start to feel better by 2024 and he can be at least a part time CF? Yes, though there is no guarantee. But I don't understand the angst about him becoming a full time DH, potentially. 

    Now, understand, I'm NOT comparing Buck to these names, but Cruz became a full time DH early in his ML career, which started late. Ortiz could barely handle 1B and moved to DH with Boston. But the player/situation I often look at is the career Molitor had. 

    Very similar to Buxton, Molitor was a tremendous player who battled injuries on a consistent basis before eventually moving to DH. Now, I fully understand Molitor had himself a very nice career, while missing time and doing some light DH work, and didn't make the full transition to DH until he was about 35yo. I GET the difference here! But he made the transition and had several more highly productive seasons once he did so.

    The biggest issue with being a DH is part physical and part mental. You have to find a way to stay "in the game" and to remain "physically up" despite not playing the field. And not everyone can do it successfully. But if Byron could learn to make that adjustment, he might be a very dangerous full time DH, even though it's a shame his generational CF defense would be gone. 

    He's always been a bit of a streaky hitter, and might always be one. But his bat remains potentially very dangerous and productive. His knees get even a little healthier no longer an OF, he still might leg out XB hits, take an extra base, even steal an important base here and there, which most DH can't do. 

    All I'm saying is, while a terrible shame his days in CF MIGHT be over, it doesn't mean he can't be a dangerous and productive player in a DH role. He doesn't have to be some black hole in the lineup, as some seem to be portraying him. A few weeks ago, before his rib shot injury, he was on pace for 30HR, 20+ doubles, and a combined nearly 200 runs scored and RBI. (Obviously skewed a bit when subtracting HR from total runs produced). That's a hell of a DH! And not a black hole at all. 

    Yes, he's been slumping horribly the past few weeks after getting drilled. And yes, he might always be a streaky hitter. I'm just saying, I wouldn't be writing an epitaph on his career or the Twins lineup just yet if he does, indeed, end up at DH. It does mean some re-imagining of the roster going forward that wasn't exactly anticipated. But I'm not conceding any doom or gloom just yet.




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