Can Gibson develop into a top 30 MLB starter?

[Scheherezade]

Here are some comps from this year around the 30 mark for qualified pitchers:

 

30. Jorge de la Rosa: 2.6 WAR

30. Hiroki Kuroda: 3.53 xFIP

30. Ervin Santana: 3.25 ERA

 

Is anyone concerned about his performance this year? He's definitely had enough minor league innings. I think a combination of nerves and season fatigue are definitely holding his rookie season back.

 

I don't really buy the 1 ace per team. The Twins don't have anyone close to the top 30 this year; the Tigers have 4 in the top 15.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In a word, no.

 

Gibson has never been projected to be a top 30 starter. Top 50, maybe. Not top 30. And I'd be very happy with top 50 performances from him for 4-5 years.

[Danchat]

No.

[Willihammer]

I think he can. He is the only guy right now who features 3 good pitches, what he lacks is command. The exact opposite of everyone else on the staff (except Deduno).

[nicksaviking]

Well it shouldn't be hard. Using WAR like you did, if you take a look at the top 30 pitchers, many are not overly impressive. I don't know why he could not be as good as Jorge de la Rosa or Felix Doubront. However as a yearly trend? Likely not. If you look at recent years, only a handfull of top 30 pitchers (by WAR) fail to strikeout 7.0 per 9 innings and those that do rarely are top 30 pitchers multiple years.

 

Perhaps if he starts missing some bats, but that's probably a discussion about ability vs organizational intent.

[DaveW]

I'd settle for ANY Twins pitcher to be top 100 at this point.

[70charger]

Not consistently, no. But is it possible? Sure.

 

Look at one of your examples there: Ervin Santana. He's having a year roughly equivalent to his career best (ERA+ of 126; career high of 127). Last year, he was pretty poor (75 ERA+ and 5.16 straight ERA). If he's able to do it, someone with Gibson's talent can do it.

[TheLeviathan]

Nah, but I'm glad he is up and learning how to get big league hitters out. Maybe we will see closer to his best next year that way.

[jimbo92107]

Subtract 6mph off his fastball, throw it like Albers. He'll be fine.

[launchingthrees]

Was he even in the top 20 pitching prospects last year at the age of 25?

[Guest USAFChief]

Gibson has been one of the bigger disappointments of the season so far for me.

 

I realize he might be tiring in his first full season back. I realize he's just getting his feet wet. I'm not overly concerned that there's been some rough edges that need smoothing out, or that he's given up some runs.

 

But his stuff has been decidedly pedestrian. IMO, he hasn't shown anything in the way of above average stuff.

 

If that doesn't improve, "top 30" is wishful thinking. "Above average" would be too much to expect.

[drjim]

Gibson has been one of the bigger disappointments of the season so far for me.

 

I realize he might be tiring in his first full season back. I realize he's just getting his feet wet. I'm not overly concerned that there's been some rough edges that need smoothing out, or that he's given up some runs.

 

But his stuff has been decidedly pedestrian. IMO, he hasn't shown anything in the way of above average stuff.

 

If that doesn't improve, "top 30" is wishful thinking. "Above average" would be too much to expect.

 

Mid-rotation sounds about right. We can only hope his flat stuff is the result of fatigue, but some of the scouting reports hinted at this the past year.