FanGraphs: Twins Take P2C To New Heights

[Nick Nelson]

The great Jeff Sullivan examines Minnesota's insane strikeout deficiency. Using an "adjusted strikeout rate" metric that compares a team's performance to the league average, he finds that these Twins have the lowest mark ever.

 

The Twins are so deep in last you’d almost think this would be something they’re proud of. You’d almost think it has to be deliberate, that the Twins have zigged where all the other teams zagged. But then, the Twins are middle of the pack in walks. They’re in dead last in adjusted ERA. The neat thing about strikeouts is they’re outs. And Twins starters haven’t gotten enough outs.

 

The Twins Pitch to Contact Like No One Ever | FanGraphs Baseball

[Mike Sixel]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

[snepp]

I (we) knew it was pretty awful, but a little additional context really makes it hit home.

 

 

 

Blech.

[snepp]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

 

"They're really, REALLY awesome at something!"

[drjim]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

 

Not respond at all? Not exactly cutting edge new information.

[drjim]

Next thing we know there will be a cutting edge study on how payroll has gone down this year

[ThePuck]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

 

I guess the humor was missed by some on that Mike...try to be serious all the time if you can... :-)

[twinsnorth49]

"News Flash, Jeff Sullivan has just discovered the Minnesota Twins starting rotation does not strike out a lot of batters, further details at 11:00".

 

This is kind of like when Geraldo Rivera unveiled Al Capone's vault.

[DaveW]

I mean, this isn't a shocker. The good news is we have guys like Meyer, May and Berrios in the system so hopefully we make strides soon.

[nicksaviking]

Next thing we know there will be a cutting edge study on how payroll has gone down this year

 

Are you saying it wasn't insightful? Because I'd argue that the mass frustration with the front office on this issue was thoughtfully and thoroughly justified by a widely respected baseball publication. It just happens that they do not paint the Twins front office in a positive light and imply it would be difficult to achieve this level of incompetence in this statistical area with out trying to do so.

 

My favorite line:

 

"Deduno flirted with a few strikeouts in 2012 but the Twins seem to have beat that notion right out of him."

[Mike Sixel]

So a national site, that specializes in using stats to analyze the game, writes a story for the entire nation, and people think this is bad? Like, all the fans out there pay attn to the Twins like the people on this site? I don't get the criticism, this is what Fangraphs does. It looks at the stats that are extreme, or that drive results.

[ThePuck]

I think the fact that the Twins have the lowest adjusted strikeout rate ever is news. I also think Fangraphs doesn't just write for Twins fans. Fans from other teams may have interest in knowing this about a team they don't necessarily follow.

 

I don't think he writes just for Diehard Twins fans.

[ThePuck]

So a national site, that specializes in using stats to analyze the game, writes a story for the entire nation, and people think this is bad? Like, all the fans out there pay attn to the Twins like the people on this site? I don't get the criticism, this is what Fangraphs does. It looks at the stats that are extreme, or that drive results.

 

okay, that was weird...see my post that was posted at the same time...

[Mike Sixel]

Ha, clearly mine was posted first.....

[snepp]

Next thing we know there will be a cutting edge study on how payroll has gone down this year

 

Did you even bother to read it? Or just decide to crap on this thread for fun?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think he writes just for Diehard Twins fans.

 

Wow that's harsh. Think I should complain?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

 

Me thinks there's good reason to be negative here. Though truth be told, it's clear that the Twins are adjusting this mentality in the farm system. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten to the point of purging the P2C guys out just yet. That started a bit this season with Gibson and will continue as Meyer, May, and Darnel (not a huge K guy, but an improvement) move into the rotation.

[drjim]

I think the fact that the Twins have the lowest adjusted strikeout rate is news. I also think Fangraphs doesn't just write for Twins fans. Fans from other teams may have interest in knowing this about a team they don't necessarily follow.

 

I don't think he writes just for Diehard Twins fans.

 

I don't have a problem with the article. I suppose with so many outlets publishing content will generally be the same thing said different ways.

 

I absolutely hate the current rotation but I'm beyond bored with this current topic on Twins message boards.

[ThePuck]

Wow that's harsh. Think I should complain?

 

absolutely :-)

[ThePuck]

I don't have a problem with the article. I suppose with so many outlets publishing it will generally be the same thing said different ways.

 

I absolutely hate the current rotation but I'm beyond bored with this current topic on Twins message boards.

 

But no one is making you participate in topics you don't want to participate in, are they?

[drjim]

But no one is making you participate in topics you don't want to participate in, are they?

 

Nope.

[ThePuck]

Me thinks there's good reason to be negative here. Though truth be told, it's clear that the Twins are adjusting this mentality in the farm system. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten to the point of purging the P2C guys out just yet. That started a bit this season with Gibson and will continue as Meyer, May, and Darnel (not a huge K guy, but an improvement) move into the rotation.

 

I honestly wonder whether or not Gibson will be a strikeout guy. I hope you're right.

[twinsnorth49]

I honestly wonder whether or not Gibson will be a strikeout guy. I hope you're right.

 

I question that myself, just not convinced yet, could change I suppose.

[TheLeviathan]

I mean, this isn't a shocker. The good news is we have guys like Meyer, May and Berrios in the system so hopefully we make strides soon.

 

Wait...didnt someone just tell us May wasn't all that good a prospect? He seems to switch in his talent evaluation based on the slant of an argument these days....

[TheLeviathan]

Not respond at all? Not exactly cutting edge new information.

 

I agree...how dare Nick post a relevant statistical analysis of the team on the board! The audacity.....

[IdahoPilgrim]

I cannot figure out how to respond to this w/o being negative......any advice anyone?

 

Looking at the table in the blog post, they may be last but they are just a touch behind the 72 Yankees.

 

Being compared to the Yankees is a good thing, isn't it?

[Willihammer]

I'm sick of hearing how the Twins starters need to get "quick outs." So, guys throw fastballs down the middle in pitcher counts and get shelled. Or, they pitch to the corners, and when that doesn't work they get blamed for "nibbling."

 

The staff is supposed to "keep the ball down" but Mauer doesn't get those calls very much.

 

When unearned runs get on the board, its the defender's fault for making an error, but not the managers for not employing any shifts.

 

Its not even like the Twins strategy is PTC anymore. Its more like there isn't any strategy at all, or at least, not a cohesive well thought out one.

[Mike Sixel]

I think there is a strategy, I don't think it is being executed well right now. I don't claim to know the strategy, but whatever it is, it is not being done well.

[nicksaviking]

Me thinks there's good reason to be negative here. Though truth be told, it's clear that the Twins are adjusting this mentality in the farm system. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten to the point of purging the P2C guys out just yet. That started a bit this season with Gibson and will continue as Meyer, May, and Darnel (not a huge K guy, but an improvement) move into the rotation.

 

I agree the Twins seem to be making an effort now but I wonder how effective it is. Other teams have about a decade head start on scouting, drafting and developing strikeout artists, the Twins are way behind at this point.

 

I was very encouraged by last years drafting of the hard throwing college arms even if they needed to be converted from the bullpen. However, so many of them, like Melotakis, Baxendale, Duffy and Powell, have taken a pretty big step back in the strikeout department. Other guys thought to be fireballers from past drafts have not been able to produce the numbers and also struggle in the K department like Boyd, Boer and Summers.

 

Some regression should be expected moving up levels or moving from the pen to the rotation, but for the most part, the decrease by these pitchers is quite sharp. So why is this happening? Are the Twins just not as skilled as the other clubs in identifying arms that can sustain a high strikeout rate? Or are they still stubbornly installing at least some aspects of the pitch-to-contact theory into these young pitchers?

[nicksaviking]

When unearned runs get on the board, its the defender's fault for making an error, but not the managers for not employing any shifts.

 

I don't even like the team "unearned run" anymore. All runs are earned in my book. Worried about errors? Strike the batter out.