26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[old nurse]

Unfortunately, if the Twins don't make any signings it's backdoors like this that allow people to continue to assert that we "don't know" what Ryan would do or that the situation wsan't right, or whatever. There is a never ending supply of weak supports people can concoct.

 

The problem is that the much stronger evidence contradicts them, unfortunately they continue to put the burden of proving the future on other people and asserting that their guess is just as good as anyone else. When, in fact, it isn't - even if it comes true in the future.

 

I guess the point you missed is that these players would be in their prime throughout the contract. Ryan is adverse to paying declining players a lot of money for multiple years. These FA are not in that situation. This is a situation that Ryan has not been in before so you do not know what he will do.

[Guest USAFChief]

I should clarify this point. I expect Ryan to sign two starters and a cornee bat, but the outlay for next year will be less than the total coming off the books, which is why payroll will still go down.

 

There obviously is space to sign someone like Guerrero, but if the Dodgers come in and make an absurd offer it will be a little difficult to be too upset if the Twins don't beat it.

I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

 

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess the point you missed is that these players would be in their prime throughout the contract. Ryan is adverse to paying declining players a lot of money for multiple years. These FA are not in that situation. This is a situation that Ryan has not been in before so you do not know what he will do.

 

And if he doesn't sign them....then all backdoors are closed? It will be fully on him for not doing it?

 

I guess I'm not so optimistic that the excuses will end simply because of a couple of mid-20s IFAs.

[Oxtung]

They are different. That's why I separated them into two distinct points.

 

drjim, you wrote that Ryan's resigning of Doumit, Burton and Perkins were a beacon pointing to Ryan's impending haul in FA. You might have listed 2 points but they were both justifying Ryan's potential future FA signings.

 

Just to be clear here is your post:

I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence. I am pretty sure I stated clearly that there really is no evidence to support my claim [that Ryan will sign a big ticket FA at some point], but there is also no true evidence against my position because we have never seen Terry Ryan operate with a good team under the new financial reality.

 

The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).

 

 

Moving on

I don't ignore it as much as accept the reality that the options last year available to the Twins didn't fit this description.

So you've ruled out the possibility that Greinke or Sanchez could be good pitchers and a cornerstone of their rotations for the next several years after 1 very good season for both of them (so far at least)?

[howieramone1406390264]

And if he doesn't sign them....then all backdoors are closed? It will be fully on him for not doing it?

 

I guess I'm not so optimistic that the excuses will end simply because of a couple of mid-20s IFAs.

 

I'm not sure of what excuses you are talking about, but these 3 players merely represent 3 opportunities the Twins currently have. I certainly hope they find one they want and put together a successful bid. If they are unsuccessful they will have many more opportunities in the not too distant future. None of the 3 would be in our top 2 prospects and it's not even certain Tanaka would be in our top 2 pitching prospects.

[PseudoSABR]

I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

For my part, at least, there's a lot of sense to optimizing your risk in free agency by building around your core's prime. It makes far more sense, at least to me, to invest in a top of the rotation free agent when Sano and Buxton are already in the everyday lineup. Pitchers scare me. Older pitchers scare me more. If a free agent pitcher is more likely to fail in the last half of their contract, it makes sense to hedge against that by timing such signings to align with our "supposed" core.

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

This is a really good point. That at some point the rubber must meet the road; that the Twins need to decide precisely when that core will emerge--kicking the ball down the road is less and less of a viable, baseball option.

 

Frankly, I will be disappointed if the Twins don't spend to supplement their emerging core--because the team could be really, really special. On the other hand, I won't be surprised if the Twins hover under a 100 million payroll for the next couple years, only surpassing the figure when they lock up that young core.

[Oxtung]

I'm not sure of what excuses you are talking about, but these 3 players merely represent 3 opportunities the Twins currently have. I certainly hope they find one they want and put together a successful bid. If they are unsuccessful they will have many more opportunities in the not too distant future. None of the 3 would be in our top 2 prospects and it's not even certain Tanaka would be in our top 2 pitching prospects.

 

The problem is bigger than just these 3 though. They are just the latest. If you look at all the pitchers he has watched go by that could have upgraded this rotation... well trends start to appear. Strong trends. How many times can one say, "not the right time" or "too much money" or "not the right player" before these just become excuses for doing nothing? 5? 10? 20? 50 players? How many years? At what point do you stop and say, alright, he clearly isn't going to make a move to help this team right now?

[Oxtung]

For my part, at least, there's a lot of sense to optimizing your risk in free agency by building around your core's prime. It makes far more sense, at least to me, to invest in a top of the rotation free agent when Sano and Buxton are already in the everyday lineup. Pitchers scare me. Older pitchers scare me more. If a free agent pitcher is more likely to fail in the last half of their contract, it makes sense to hedge against that by timing such signings to align with our "supposed" core. This is a really good point. That at some point the rubber must meet the road; that the Twins need to decide precisely when that core will emerge--kicking the ball down the road is less and less of a viable, baseball option.

 

Frankly, I will be disappointed if the Twins don't spend to supplement their emerging core--because the team could be really, really special. On the other hand, I won't be surprised if the Twins hover under a 100 million payroll for the next couple years, only surpassing the figure when they lock up that young core.

 

Those seem to be two big assumptions to me. There is a very real risk the Twins will not have the money to sign a top tier free agent when the prospects are ready. Look at the Royals. They have an $80 million payroll and are spending $10 million on arbitration players this year. Next season they'll be at ~$90 million and still have to replace Bruce Chen (80IP) and Ervin Santana (170IP). In 3 years, when their core will be "in their prime" they could be spending $70 million on arbitration players alone. It is not at all clear that if the Twins choose to wait until their players are "in their prime" that the money will be there for a significant FA. There is also the very real risk that said FA won't exist at that specific point in time.

 

If you have it I would love to see any data on what point of their contracts FA pitchers lose value.

[howieramone1406390264]

The problem is bigger than just these 3 though. They are just the latest. If you look at all the pitchers he has watched go by that could have upgraded this rotation... well trends start to appear. Strong trends. How many times can one say, "not the right time" or "too much money" or "not the right player" before these just become excuses for doing nothing? 5? 10? 20? 50? At what point do you stop and say, alright, he clearly isn't going to make a move to help this team right now?

 

I don't disagree with you. Ryan has been back 21 months and I feel he will make some kind of move to improve our dismal starting staff this winter. That said, I believe we can finish close to .500 next season with a below average rotation. I'm guessing he adds one, and possibly even 2 free agents if the September auditions fail. I'm hoping we can position ourselves, so when the parade starts in 2015, our starting rotation is very close to the major league average.

[kab21]

I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.

 

Would you really complain if the Twins signed a likely #3 starter that was 25 yrs old? I absolutely wouldn't.

[cmathewson]

I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

 

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

 

This. TR was a good GM for the Dome. With TF (and other new) revenues, he needs to change his mindset on free agents if he wants to win before he retires. If he doesn't do it this offseason, and we suffer another 90-loss season as a result, I hope they show him the door.

 

On the whole point about long-term commitments, we do make very long-term commitments where I work (M&As). We know there will be a certain amount of waste involved. We know some of these M&As will not work out. But if we don't take the risks, we will fail. It's similar to venture capitalists: They plan on one out of five failures. That still gives them four good investments to more than make up for the one failed investment.

 

The MLB has become a much more difficult game than it was when Risk-Averse Ryan could succeed against the big boys. You can't just rely on the farm system anymore. You have to use all the resources available to you. That includes bargain basement FAs (Burton), international signings (Sano), and the draft (Buxton), and high-end FAs (no one).

[drjim]

drjim, you wrote that Ryan's resigning of Doumit, Burton and Perkins were a beacon pointing to Ryan's impending haul in FA. You might have listed 2 points but they were both justifying Ryan's potential future FA signings.

 

Just to be clear here is your post:

 

 

 

Moving on

 

So you've ruled out the possibility that Greinke or Sanchez could be good pitchers and a cornerstone of their rotations for the next several years after 1 very good season for both of them (so far at least)?

 

The post you are quoting is a continuation of a previous point where I had said that now Ryan has more money he is likely to spend more money on FAs and lock up their own guys. That is why I used the two separate points.

 

On your second point, sure Greinke could be a cornerstone. But no chance he was coming here - but that is my opinion and it has been debated to death and resurrected many times. I really don't want to go there.

[drjim]

I think this is sort of where your argument breaks down Jim. The whole point of having TF was to give the Twins the financial muscle to occasionally step up and compete for players. If you're going to excuse the Twins for not signing a player every time some other team also wants him, then the Twins will never sign anyone of consequence, and were right back to the dome financial scheme...always mucking around the shallow end of the pool. Other teams are always going to be interested in signing good free agents, so either you compete on the other teams terms or forget the whole thing.

 

And it seems to me you've already accepted that as "OK" for 2014, sign a couple bargain basement types who will have little or no chance of actually making a difference, and call it good. The Twins will continue to chop payroll, but by gosh TR will have stood by his principles and future teams will have financial flexibility.

 

Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

 

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

 

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

 

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

[ThePuck]

This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

 

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

 

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

 

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).

 

Well, in terms of FA, 'almost 50M' over two years isn't a lot and it's even less impressive when looking at who we lost in FA and how many players that almost 50M was divided into. In other words, if you look at the whole picture.

 

And yes, a very good argument could be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap over the last two years...but only if 'responsible' involves significantly cutting payroll and not getting anyone to truly improve the major league team as we endured a second and third carpy season.. Other than that...

[ThePuck]

Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

 

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

 

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

 

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

 

You make that sound like a lot....it's not. Not at all. Especially considering what's coming off the books and especially considering it'll probably be divided by 3 or 4 players. We need quality, not a bunch of bargain basement blue-light special players.

 

as far as free agent expectations...SOME people expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

[drjim]

You make that sound like a lot....it's not. Not at all. Especially considering what's coming off the books and especially considering it'll probably be divided by 3 or 4 players. We need quality, not a bunch of bargain basement blue-light special players.

 

Alas, quality as you seem to define it probably doesn't exist in this free agent class.

[John Bonnes]

And yes, a very good argument could be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap over the last two years...but only if 'responsible' involves significantly cutting payroll and not getting anyone to truly improve the major league team as we endure a third carpy season in a row. Other than that...

 

Yeah, to that argument, I guess I'd say - "resposible for who?"

 

The answer, obviously is "the Pohlads," but:

a) I'm not a Pohlad, so why do I care about that exactly? I'm a fan, and I don't see anything responsible about (somewhat) willfully neglecting an enormous resource that could have made the year (or in the case of international free agents, the future) a better one. Also

 

If I was a Pohlad, I might wonder why a manager a few levels down from me (Ryan reports to Dave St. Peter, who reports to the Pohlads) is solely making a decision like that which affects so many other aspects of the organization. It certainly makes things like "selling season tickets" tougher, which is not under his control but is under the control of the guy he reports to.

 

Granted, if I'm Pohlad, I have $20 million extra dollars to soothe my concerns. I can pocket it or give it to St. Peter to use on some other endeavors. But the point is that if that's the way we, as an organization wanted to play this, we would have given him a budget with $20 million less than we did.

 

No, I don't think there was anything "responsible" about how the free agent market was handled this offseason.

[ThePuck]

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

 

People expect the Twins to improve the product on the field by all means available instead of decreasing payroll two years in a row (and likely continuing the next two years)while we continue to stink. You take it to extreme to make your point when no one is arguing the extreme. No one that I've seen in here expect us to have payroll in the mid 100s.

[Guest USAFChief]

Two points on this. I expect the Twins to commit about $20 mil in salaries next year to free agents (and more total). So I expect some significant outlays, it just so happens more is coming off the books in underperforming assets.

 

Overall I expect the Twins to operate like similar revenue teams like the Cardinals, Braves and Mariners. They will sign good free agents but won't be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox for the top shelf free agents.

 

The real advantage of Target Field is they will be able to lock up their homegrown core and supplement with free agents. That is how the mid-tier matkets are successful in baseball.

 

I fear people have free agent expectations for the Twins that don't match up to the reality of peer franchises.

Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

[Mike Sixel]

Andy McPhail operated under the same constraints as Ryan, and still managed to hand out some of the largest contracts in MLB at the time.....Ryan quit instead of handling the mess he created with Hunter, Santana, and having to sign Mauer.

 

He somehow made a historically bad SP staff worse this year.

 

$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

[drjim]

Yeah, to that argument, I guess I'd say - "resposible for who?"

 

The answer, obviously is "the Pohlads," but:

a) I'm not a Pohlad, so why do I care about that exactly? I'm a fan, and I don't see anything responsible about (somewhat) willfully neglecting an enormous resource that could have made the year (or in the case of international free agents, the future) a better one. Also

 

If I was a Pohlad, I might wonder why a manager a few levels down from me (Ryan reports to Dave St. Peter, who reports to the Pohlads) is solely making a decision like that which affects so many other aspects of the organization. It certainly makes things like "selling season tickets" tougher, which is not under his control but is under the control of the guy he reports to.

 

Granted, if I'm Pohlad, I have $20 million extra dollars to soothe my concerns. I can pocket it

or give it to St. Peter to use on some other endeavors. But the point is that if that's the way we, as an organization wanted to play this, we would have given him a budget with $20 million less than we did.

 

No, I don't think there was anything "responsible" about how the free agent market was handled this offseason.

 

"Responsible" in regards to 2015 and beyond.

 

I'm quite confident Pohlad knows exactly why Ryan is doing what he is doing and has confidence in him going forward. I'm sure Pohlad doesn't mind the extra cash but he surely realizes the impact losing will have on his bottom line.

[drjim]

Have the Braves, Cards or Mariners responded to new stadium revenues by cutting payroll 30% (with further cuts likely on the way), to the point where they are within a stone's throw of 2007 levels? All while losing 90+ games 3 yrs in a row?

 

Mariners have. The other two haven't seen a similar rebuild as the Twins are facing.

 

EDIT:I Actually Seattle is a great cautionary tale of trying to kickstart a rebuild through spending or trading prospects and remaining mired in mediocrity.

[Mike Sixel]

Mariners have. The other two haven't seen a similar rebuild as the Twins are facing.

 

Because, even though they've consistently drafted late, they've managed to draft and develop pitchers. Oh, and they sometimes sign legit FAs also.....they are better at what they do than the Twins are.

[jay]

$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

 

mike, I keep seeing that $25MM brought up. Given that every team gets it, the effect on the talent you can get is 0%. Maybe it means the gross expenditures for every team in MLB should go higher, but it doesn't mean each team will be able to go sign a Greinke... there aren't 30 of them out there.

[drjim]

Andy McPhail operated under the same constraints as Ryan, and still managed to hand out some of the largest contracts in MLB at the time.....Ryan quit instead of handling the mess he created with Hunter, Santana, and having to sign Mauer.

 

He somehow made a historically bad SP staff worse this year.

 

$20MM? They are losing more than that in payroll, and getting $25MM more in new revenue. Yay, they are spending less than 40% of what they could, and still make the same profit as this year!

 

Actually the Twins had the highest attendance in mlb history in 1992. The constraints were different and the financial model has changed significantly in 25 years. I would think this obvious.

[drjim]

Because, even though they've consistently drafted late, they've managed to draft and develop pitchers. Oh, and they sometimes sign legit FAs also.....they are better at what they do than the Twins are.

 

Actually they aren't better. Mediocre again and the GM is about to get canned.

[Mike Sixel]

mike, I keep seeing that $25MM brought up. Given that every team gets it, the effect on the talent you can get is 0%. Maybe it means the gross expenditures for every team in MLB should go higher, but it doesn't mean each team will be able to go sign a Greinke... there aren't 30 of them out there.

 

Agreed, every contract will be more expensive, so spending $20MM won't get what it would have gotten this last year, that's actually my point.

[jay]

As for this Guerrero guy, I can't see him as an MLB SS. As someone else noted, very stiff in the torso and hips while fielding. The range doesn't look impressive and you just don't see those rigid motions out of an MLB SS. The swing looks okay, but hard to judge off a youtube BP clip. For the money, I'd much rather see Abreu or Tanaka.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually they aren't better. Mediocre again and the GM is about to get canned.

 

The Cards and Braves aren't good? Sorry, I thought it was obvious I was talking about the two good teams you mentioned, not the Mariners. My bad, should have been more clear.

[Mike Sixel]

Actually the Twins had the highest attendance in mlb history in 1992. The constraints were different and the financial model has changed significantly in 25 years. I would think this obvious.

 

 

I thought it was obvious I was comparing McPhail in dome constraints to Ryan in dome constraints, I really need to be more explicit in my posts......of course constraints have changed, not that you could tell from the last two years, as payroll has plummeted.