Going Oppo: Why You Can't Ignore Jeff Hoffman's Stubborn ERA

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Kevin Sousa, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Leading up to the trade deadline, the Twins had already added a trio of pitchers to bolster the pitching staff. But acquiring former All-Star reliever Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays was on a different level.

Minnesota has certainly made aggressive moves at previous deadlines, but it's been a while since the front office has acquired an established late-inning reliever with Hoffman's pedigree. Just one year removed from a 33-save season, the Twins paid a hefty price to bring him to Minnesota in hopes of solidifying the back end of the bullpen for a playoff push. And on paper, it's easy to see why.

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Going Oppo is two stories on Twins Daily with different opinions running simultaneously. Read the other side here. 

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Hoffman's underlying metrics are nothing short of elite. Among all qualified major league pitchers this season, his whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate all rank in the 98th percentile or better. When he's locating his pitches, very few relievers in baseball can match the quality of his stuff. Hitters chase out of the zone, they swing through pitches in the zone, and they rarely make quality contact. It's exactly the type of profile contenders dream about adding at this point in the season.

However, there's a reason those numbers are called "underlying" metrics. They're designed to explain what's happening beneath the surface, and in Hoffman's case, they've consistently painted a prettier picture than his actual results.

Across 49 innings this season, Hoffman owned a 3.86 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with Toronto. Now, a 3.86 ERA certainly isn't terrible for a reliever. Plenty of teams would gladly take that kind of production. But it's also worth asking why someone with some of the most dominant swing-and-miss metrics in baseball has an ERA sitting a full run (or more) higher than many of the game's elite relievers. The answer isn't particularly complicated.

When Hoffman is on, he's one of the nastiest relievers in baseball. The problem is that he simply hasn't been on consistently enough over the past two seasons. Let's go back to 2025. Hoffman couldn't have asked for a better start. Over his first 15 1/3 innings of the season, he posted a microscopic 1.17 ERA while striking out 22 batters and issuing just one walk. He looked every bit like one of the best relievers in baseball, and while nobody expected him to maintain that pace for an entire season, there wasn't much reason to believe disaster was around the corner either.

Then May happened. Over just 10 innings that month, Hoffman surrendered 15 earned runs. He also allowed five home runs and issued six walks. For a late-inning reliever who's usually being trusted with close leads, that's about the worst combination you can have. The strikeouts didn't disappear, and the swing-and-miss stuff was still there. He just wasn't putting enough pitches in competitive locations. Instead of getting ahead in counts and finishing hitters, free passes created traffic, mistakes got punished, and crooked numbers followed.

Unfortunately, that wasn't just a one-month anomaly. The inconsistency stuck with him throughout the remainder of the season. His final two months serve as a perfect example. Hoffman posted a 6.00 ERA in August before completely flipping the script with a dominant 0.84 ERA over the final month of the season. On the surface, those look like two completely different pitchers. In reality, many of the same issues remained. The command continued to come and go, and the walks never disappeared. The difference was simply that the extra-base hits weren't coming at the same rate in September as they had during some of his rougher stretches.

That roller coaster carried over into 2026, where Hoffman once again opened the season as Toronto's closer.  By the end of May, though, he owned an ERA north of 6 through 25 2/3 innings. And once again, the reasons looked awfully familiar. Too many walks, and too many extra-base hits. Eventually, Blue Jays manager John Schneider decided enough was enough.

Toronto removed Hoffman from their closer role and handed ninth-inning duties to former Twins pitcher Louis Varland. Ironically, that may have been exactly what Hoffman needed. Since the start of June, he's been outstanding. Across his last 23 1/3 innings, Hoffman has allowed just three earned runs. And wouldn't you know it, the biggest differences haven't been his strikeout numbers or his stuff. He's simply done a much better job limiting walks and keeping hitters from doing serious damage when they make contact.

That's ultimately what makes evaluating Hoffman so fascinating. The advanced metrics aren't lying; he truly does possess the arsenal of a dominant, late-inning reliever. Few pitchers miss bats at the rate he does, and when everything is working, he looks capable of shutting down anyone in baseball. But the surface-level numbers aren't lying either.

There's a reason his ERA has consistently landed higher than many would expect given those elite peripherals. Over the past two seasons, his command has disappeared often enough to create disastrous stretches, and those blowups are especially damaging for a one-inning reliever who's expected to protect slim leads. That's the version of Hoffman the Twins are betting they can avoid.

If he continues limiting walks and extra-base hits the way he has over the past two months, there's every reason to believe he'll become one of Derek Shelton's most trusted high-leverage relievers down the stretch. But if those command issues resurface, the Twins may quickly learn why some people have been far more cautious about Hoffman's profile than the underlying metrics would suggest.

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[MMBoys93]

He’s the Byron Buxton of relievers and that means he fits right in. 
 

I don’t mean that to say he’s injury prone, just that when he’s on he’s one of the best and when he’s not he’s one of the worst. No middle ground 

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

He’s the Byron Buxton of relievers and that means he fits right in. 
 

I don’t mean that to say he’s injury prone, just that when he’s on he’s one of the best and when he’s not he’s one of the worst. No middle ground 

Putting him in the spot to succeed is in everyone's interest. When Buck was humming along he was in the leadoff spot.. he seems more engaged when CF and less so DH, says the eye test. Was like Jax, when he came in on low leverage situations he always got rocked. If Hoffman is your seventh inning guy, use him there? Lefty righty matchups interfere.. I am glad he's here last night notwithstanding.

[bean5302]

I really don't like this format. If TD wants to manufacture the debate, it should be in a better format with bite sized pieces in a single article going back and forth like a real debate. I know I've participated in a similar format this in the past, but it just doesn't resonate with me.

[PuckettPond]

Curious how this trade looks after 2 years as Dasan Hill could be lights out with his potential. Big armed LHP are unicorn rare, we need to acquire not trade them.

[Greglw3]

But in the category of: Josh Bell has been extremely valuable to the Twins because he heated up big time around June 1 and has taken, patient, professional and very clutch at bats ever since - in that category, let’s give Hoffman his due that at the time of the trade he had ~ a 1.21 ERA since June 1.

[wesnewy]

1 hour ago, MMBoys93 said:

He’s the Byron Buxton of relievers and that means he fits right in. 
 

I don’t mean that to say he’s injury prone, just that when he’s on he’s one of the best and when he’s not he’s one of the worst. No middle ground 

 

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Putting him in the spot to succeed is in everyone's interest. When Buck was humming along he was in the leadoff spot.. he seems more engaged when CF and less so DH, says the eye test. Was like Jax, when he came in on low leverage situations he always got rocked. If Hoffman is your seventh inning guy, use him there? Lefty righty matchups interfere.. I am glad he's here last night notwithstanding.

With those things said would you call it a MAJOR overpay for someone who is just a "low leverage arm" or a "seventh inning guy"

[Greglw3]

28 minutes ago, wesnewy said:

 

With those things said would you call it a MAJOR overpay for someone who is just a "low leverage arm" or a "seventh inning guy"

No not an overpay, Hoffman has elite stuff.