Going Oppo: Jeff Hoffman's Elite Underlying Numbers Tell The Real Story

[Nate Palmer]

The Twins acquired Jeff Hoffman just before the trade deadline as the front office made strides to strengthen the bullpen for a playoff run. Many will remember that Hoffman spent spring training with the Twins in 2023 but opted out of the deal before ever putting on a Twins jersey for a regular-season game. Now he returns to the Twins, but his path brings him back as a much different reliever than he was then. 

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Going Oppo is two stories on Twins Daily with different opinions running simultaneously. Read the other side here. 

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Since leaving the Twins, he found success with the Philadelphia Phillies. That season, he posted an increased K-rate and K/9 that landed him as the closer on a very competitive Phillies team for two seasons. As a free agent, he translated that into a nice little contract (3 years, $33 million) with the Toronto Blue Jays, and the world watched last season as he anchored their bullpen during a World Series run. 

This season, Hoffman fell out of favor with Blue Jays leadership and was removed from being the primary closer in favor of Louis Varland. Most glaringly, one can look at Hoffman’s numbers and see a 3.94 ERA this season and a 4.37 ERA last season and wonder exactly what the Twins have gotten themselves into here?     

One aspect of Hoffman’s statistics this season that sticks out like a sore thumb that directly impacts his ERA is a gigantic number in the BABIP column, .389. Since establishing himself as the competitive closer he has been the last several seasons, his BABIP sits most often in the lower .200s, with a .278 BABIP in 2024 being the highest through that stretch. So, one could argue his slow start in 2026 was at least somewhat attributable to bad luck.

If one is concerned with Hoffman’s output based on ERA, that number alone should regress to its normal mean. Often, to do so, it will be much better than his career norms, and the Twins could reap the rewards. Hoffman’s xERA reflects the reality that his outcomes should most often be better than they have been, as he carries a 3.75 xERA versus his 4.37 actual ERA. 

A direct correlation with Hoffman’s success since 2023 is an increase in his fastball velocity. For years, the former ninth overall pick sat around 94 mph with his fastball. Then in 2023 it jumped up to 97 mph. He is still throwing near that mark, averaging 96 mph with his four-seam fastball. Hoffman has traditionally used his slider to attack right-handed hitters and his four-seamer to attack left-handers. Something in that approach this season has caused him to have far less success against righties than usual, currently allowing right-handed hitters to carry a .306 batting average against him. It could be that even with a dropped arm angle, Hoffman isn’t getting as much run on his slider as he has in past seasons. 

Even with those struggles, Hoffman has proven to be a reliable reliever since opting out of his minor-league contract and leaving Twins camp those years ago. While Hoffman will be remembered for his blown save in Game 7 of last year’s World Series, his overall numbers last postseason will still be what you want out of a backend reliever. Over 12 1/3 innings, Hoffman held a 1.46 ERA, allowed two earned runs, six hits, and struck out 18 batters while only walking four. Even this season, since the beginning of June, he holds a miniscule 1.21 ERA, three earned runs, 30 strikeouts, and eight walks. 

Putting the whole package together, it begins to be obvious why the Twins targeted Hoffman and were willing to part with a top 10 prospect in Dasan Hill to do so.   

 

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[TJSweens]

Thanks for the article. I feel much better about losing the game last night.

[thelanges5]

Blue Jays don’t make it to game 7 of the WS without him. They also probably don’t lose game 7 without him. I like the trade but he’s going to be a rollercoaster. Mostly great with some painful blowups sprinkled in. 

[Rufus]

20 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Blue Jays don’t make it to game 7 of the WS without him. They also probably don’t lose game 7 without him. I like the trade but he’s going to be a rollercoaster. Mostly great with some painful blowups sprinkled in. 

In other words he is human.  

[Old Twins Hat]

16 minutes ago, Rufus said:

In other words he is human.  

Geez, last thing the Twins need: a human being at closer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

25 minutes ago, Rufus said:

In other words he is human.  

It's more than that, though. He's not just prone to typical fluctuations; he is literally a bad pitcher for prolonged periods of time. Overall, he's a good - not great - reliever because of it.

I asked Sam to write the counterpoint to this because tons of Twins writers are fawning over Hoffman. We run a Blue Jays site, and I've watched Hoffman pretty closely for the past two years. While ERA isn't the end-all, be-all for relievers (in fact, I tell people not to use it at all 95% of the time), it is extremely important to note whether a reliever's ERA is bad because of three true outcomes, and Hoffman's is. He generally starts and ends his own innings. He's giving up home runs and walks. He has earned every bit of his ERA, and that means we should not ignore some significant red flags with him.