Ranking the Minnesota Twins' Starting Rotation: Whom Can You Trust Right Now?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins' starting rotation was supposed to be a strength coming into 2026. On paper, it still is. And through the first stretch of the season, the numbers back that up. The Twins currently rank 5th in baseball in starting pitcher fWAR and sit in the top half of the league in ERA. But the way it has come together has looked very different than expected.

Injuries to Pablo López and David Festa created immediate uncertainty, and questions around velocity and performance for Bailey Ober and Zebby Matthews only added to it. Outside of Joe Ryan, there were more question marks than answers heading into Opening Day.

A month into the season, though, the results have been better than many expected—not dominant across the board, but steady enough to keep the team afloat while things sort themselves out. With that in mind, here is a confidence ranking of the current Twins starting rotation.

1. Joe Ryan*
With López sidelined, Ryan stepped into the ace role like everyone expected and has continued to deliver in the way he always does.

He owns a 3.76 ERA on the season, almost perfectly in line with his 3.79 career mark, and he leads the team in fWAR at 1.1. The strikeout rate has dipped slightly and his ERA+ is down a bit from last year, but the overall profile has not changed much.

Ryan continues to give the Twins a dependable outing almost every time he takes the mound. He has allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his seven starts, and there is a level of long-term consistency that the rest of the rotation has not matched. With free agency approaching, his long-term future in Minnesota may be uncertain. His role as the most trusted arm in the rotation is not.

Of course, after Sunday, there's a massive caveat to all of this, of the kind you never want attached to the person at the top of this kind of ranking. Ryan left his start against the Blue Jays with elbow soreness, throwing another long shadow of uncertainty over this unit (and the team of which it's a part) at a terrible moment. He's still the most trustworthy pitcher in the group, but we'd have said the same thing of Pablo López three months ago, too.

2. Taj Bradley
There was plenty of hype surrounding Bradley coming into the season, and so far, he has managed to exceed it. The 2025 trade deadline acquisition has been one of the most reliable starters on the staff, leading the team with 41 innings pitched while posting a 2.85 ERA and a 25.2% strikeout rate. Outside of one rough outing against his former team on April 24, he has consistently limited damage and kept the Twins in games.

He's quickly gone from a high-upside addition to someone the Twins can count on every fifth day, which is not always an easy transition to make. At the young age of 25, there's plenty of upside remaining for the right-hander, too.

3. Bailey Ober
If Bradley brought the most excitement into 2026, Ober entered the season with the most uncertainty. After a difficult finish to 2025 that included a 6.30 ERA from June on, along with a hip injury and declining velocity, expectations were understandably low. The velocity concerns have not disappeared, either, as his fastball is averaging just 88.2 mph.

Even so, Ober has found a way to put together a solid start to the season. Through six outings, he holds a 3.94 ERA and has done a much better job limiting damage. One of the biggest differences has been his ability to keep the ball in the park. After allowing 30 home runs last year, he has given up just three through 32 innings so far. He's not overpowering hitters or piling up strikeouts, but he has adjusted his approach, induced weaker contact, and avoided the big innings that hurt him last season.

4. Connor Prielipp
It may feel early to have Prielipp this high, but the early returns make it understandable. The sample size is still small, which makes this ranking more about projection than a full body of work. Even so, he has shown enough to stand out. He has allowed two earned runs in each of his starts, including one outing where he gave up just a single hit over five innings.

What stands out most is the quality of his stuff. Prielipp has shown the ability to miss bats and generate movement, and he looks comfortable attacking hitters at the major-league level. When you pair that with his pedigree as one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, it's easy to see why confidence is already building.

5. Simeon Woods Richardson
This is where things start to shift in the opposite direction. Not long ago, Woods Richardson was viewed as one of the more dependable options in the rotation. He was not dominant, but he consistently gave the Twins competitive innings and avoided major blowups.

That version has not been there to start 2026. He has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his first seven starts and carries a 6.49 ERA. Just as concerning is the drop in strikeouts, with his rate sitting at 10.6%. The consistency that once defined him has not shown up, and without it, it becomes much harder to trust what each outing might look like.

There is still plenty of time for things to shift, and this group will likely look different as the season goes on. For now, though, this is where the confidence levels stand. What do you think? Who do you trust most in this rotation right now, and who are you still unsure about? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[mikelink45]

Overall I agree. But Simeon has really looked bad and would look better in the bullpen as it has been stated on this site. Which means he could trade places with Morris and Morris could be number five or we could believe in the improvement in Matthews and he could be number five. When we or another somebody else has to be number five. 

[Jacksson]

ANSWER = Nobody - same trust level as the Bullpen.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

ANSWER = Nobody - same trust level as the Bullpen.

Have you actually watched a Twins game this year?

Because this is an entry for the Preposterous Statement of the Year Tournament.

The ranking here are correct. It'll be interesting to see if Abel is coming back soon (he's apparently throwing bullpens again) and where he would slide in. Ceiling is as high as anyone, but between prior track record and now an injury, is he ahead of Ober or not? I think he did enough to open the season to say yes, but it's intriguing.

I hope better things happen for SWR. It's surprising to see him struggle this much, because it's not like he's some guy who had a fast start and then teams got a book on. He's been here for a while and has been productive. Of course, someone people have hated him from the jump because he was acquired for Berrios...

[hitterscount]

The rotation isn't the issue with this team. The lineup barely changed from last year, with the same issues present this season, poor defense, lack of team speed and Matt Wallner still seeing playing time. Throw in one of the worst BP's in MLB and it looks bleak.... other than some promising young arms. If Matthews continues to improve he should be swapped out with SWR, who is the one starter that doesn't look like he belongs.

[Nshore]

That's a good ranking, but things are going to get much more challenging as the year progresses.  Ryan and Abel have had the elbow issues now, and Prielipp has had previous issues.  They'll be closely watching pitch counts on all those guys.  The "long relief" role will become more critical - maybe guys like SWR, Morris, and Adams.