Why the Twins’ Offseason Points to Another Trade Deadline Sell Off

[Heiny]

I think "Big Talking Tom"  has gone home.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think there is a difference between relief pitching, back end starters, and top 3 in a rotation staters. You almost always get more for relievers at the deadline as teams replace injured guys or think they're just a better bullpen away. Same for back end starters most of whom are acquired to fill injury holes or as starters today, playoff relievers tomorrow. The high end starters are are worth more in the offseason because of more market participants but sometimes you can get just the right fit at the right time at the deadline. My view that its usually better to wait on most guys and guys like Ryan are worth a kings ransom regardless of when you trade them. I don't see any need for urgency. 

But who are always the teams shopping for SP’s in the off-season? The same teams shopping for it in July. There’s not more participants. The Marlins, Pirates, Rockies, etc aren’t knocking down doors in the off-season or the trade deadline for SP’s. Who are? All the same teams shopping for them at the deadline. Therefore there aren’t “more teams”. Do a few teams surprise people and buy at the deadline? Yes, but those teams typically aren’t trading for SP’s in January. The same number of teams competing in the off-season are probably the same number of teams competing in July. Other than a handful having better than expected or worse than expected. But it’s not 30 in January just as it’s not 30 in July. There are variables yes but it’s likely to be the same number. It’s desperation in July vs. expectation in January. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I'd argue that you might find a better trade market for relievers at the deadline but in the offseason for starters.

At the trade deadline, teams have only one way to improve their team (trades) and only one way to pay for it (prospects - you're not trading away major league contributors if you're in contention)...

I think BaseballTradeValues has shown teams can overpay a bit at the deadline in general (Jose Berrios to Toronto was viewed as an overpay by the Blue Jays at the time), but the general trade value of players seems to be fairly reliable.

The calculation BTV uses is projected future production under the contract/team control (some sort of WAR) * the general dollar value per WAR (about $8MM in free agency) less the total outstanding guaranteed contract dollars OR the projected arbitration model if the player isn't on a guaranteed contract.

Joe Ryan's current value is 52.5MM on BTV
about 3.8 WAR per year at $8MM/WAR (60.5MM in production over 2 years)
and $8MM in salary (which is broken in BTV right now, should be about $15MM $6MM +$9MM).
so the current surplus value for Joe Ryan would be 60.5-15 = $45.5MM

Joe Ryan at the trade deadline would be about +31 figuring 60% of the season is over (1.5 WAR + 3.8 WAR)*8 - (2.5MM + 9MM). At the end of the year, it would be 3.8WAR*8 - 9MM = 21.4. That's assuming Joe Ryan has another full and excellent season. 

There is no chance the Twins get anything close to current value for Ryan at the deadline IMHO.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree bean5302, and that is assuming that Joe Ryan is healthy and pitching at an All-Star level.  If the probable destination is a tear-down and rebuild with young players, why are Twins ownership and FO playing this charade?? 

I understand the "pressure" of trade deadline deals and maximizing your return, but I also acknowledge the incredible risk of injury to Ryan, Buxton, Pablo and Jeffers that could gut their value.  Stranger things have happened in the world of baseball (and sports in general) but I just don't see the Twins competing in a very winnable division.  

And I don't think the "average" Twins fan is being fooled by this "keeping our core together" pseudo-strategy.  Cody didn't have to write an article that states the obvious (but I'm glad he did).  The Twins are still going to see very tepid attendance throughout this season.  Fans see an acute lack of effort or strategy and just aren't going to show up.  

[Jacksson]

You left out Jeffers.

He's a Free Agent AFTER this season.  Boras is his agent.  Boras will not allow Jeffers to sign an extension and a free agent contract will be beyond the Twins' budget.  Unless there is a qualifying offer extended, after 2026, Jeffers' leaves and the Twinkies get ZIP.  Unless he is traded.

[LastOnePicked]

21 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Fans see an acute lack of effort or strategy and just aren't going to show up.  

Plus, fans haven't been showing up even with Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers on the roster. The Twins don't have a must-see player. Their only hope to get fans back is to build a sustainable winner.