Twins Farm System

[Pwjxr56]

Much has been written about the quality of the Twins farm system.  But, in his nine years here, Derek Falvey’s farm system has produced only one position player who has become a long term starter, a catcher.  None of the other players developed in the farm system has become a regular or long term position player.  The farm system has also failed to produce any front of the rotation starting pitching.  What reason is there to believe any of the prospects currently in the farm system will be good enough to become regular position players or front of the rotation starting pitchers?

 

[tony&rodney]

I would say it is really difficult to rate any organization's prospects. Boston has traded leftovers (35-40 rated) for players the Red Sox expect to be major contributors. A noted factor in the two trades Boston completed with St. Louis was taking on big salaries. those trades and others point to how teams view players from different clubs in vastly different ways. The Twins have seen the baseball blogs rate their organization anywhere from #2 to #15. As you state only Jeffers and Ober have arrived from the current front office efforts at developing players. 

This does raise a host of questions. I will just hope that all of Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kaelen Culpepper, Connor Prielipp, and Andrew Morris get votes for Rookie of the Year. Hope for these guys is all we got.

[bunsen82]

Blah Blah Blah - its the same tired argument that has been used for years.  We will attack saying not enough value from prospects - while ignoring Lewis, Jeffers, Buxton, Ober, Arraez, Kepler, Jax, Varland,  Polanco ect.    Prospects come from a variety of pools.  There have been 2 high level picks,  Cavaco #13 pick (total flame job) and Lewis (#1).  Beyond that,  due to Falvey having a record of over .500  overall a lot of the picks have been late in the 1st round - in a draft that has low probabilities of hitting.  Its also ignoring the value of trades,  for Ryan, Duran and Lopez.    

The Twins also changed their draft strategies in 2021 - focusing more on hit tool and athleticism.  So it is not a surprise that since then not only are prospects arriving at the MLB level quickly - Keaschall and Lee  (Keaschall looks really good but I am sure you will find a way to minimize that) -  You have really solid prospects in Culpepper and Jenkins.   We now have a #3 draft pick in a draft that should have a similar quality pick to Jenkins.   The minors is loaded with pitching from Low A to AAA.   This is the first time where I have felt we have a pitching pipeline that is well developed.  We have continued to use draft capital like the trade of Petty for Gray to supplement the majors.  Overall that trade turned out really really well.  I like the long term projections - but go ahead and minimize what has been done because you are frustrated with the way that the Pohlads are managing the business.  Ultimately that is what this comes down to.  Unless they are going to spend more, it is going to be very difficult for the Twins to compete.   

[DocBauer]

I'm also going to have to disagree. It's not as simple as stating the Twins haven't produced enough elite or top players, at least since Falvey took over. And sometimes, it's what prospects bring back, not just what they do for the Twins.

Petty brought back Gray. Arraez was developed while working for THIS FO and traded for Lopez. Ryan was acquired as a solid, but not great, AAA prospect and developed in to an All Star pitcher. Ober has been very good before his hip hindered him in 2025. SWR and Martin were both acquired as prospects. SWR has turned out pretty well and shows more potential. Martin seems to have turned a corner to be at least a serviceable ML player.

Duran, Jax, and Varland acquired or drafted by this FO and turned out quite well. 

Wallner...who I think has been held down too long at times...had a solid debut, and followed that up with a pair of HIGH .800 OPS seasons before a slump in 2025 that I still believe was due to his hamstring injury. Larnach never became the player hoped for, but he became an AVERAGE ML producer. That's pretty much a 70-75% outcome, roughly, for a drafted player. That's considered a quality outcome overall when you consider how few prospects EVER achieve that kind of career.

Admittedly, the jury is still out on some guys. We've seen how good of a player Lewis can be when healthy. The FO, and the coaches, are not responsible for his injuries. The good news is how he looked the 2nd of of 2025, and the number of games played. Still only 26yo. I'm not sure what to expect of Lee, still only 25yo in 2026. Starting 2B or 3B? Super utility INF? He entered 2025 with ONLY 172 ML AB. That's a lousy 22 AB above rookie qualification. He showed some power, drove in some runs, and played better at SS post Correa trade. Can he take another step forward in 2026? I sure hope so. But again, only 25yo and ONE full ML season under his belt.

Festa flashed nicely in 2024, but battled shoulder issues almost the entire 2025. I think he's destined for the pen, but he sure has shown potential. Same with Matthews. He wasn't really supposed to debut in '24, but injuries said otherwise. He's simply not a finished product yet. But he's also flashed some really good games and maintained high K numbers, indicating his potential. 

And while some trades simply haven't worked as hoped...ugh...other prospects have been used in various trade deals.

So I don't think it's accurate to say the current FO, and their coaches, have failed to develop prospects at this point. And while I'm not saying all of this is going to happen, imagine Lewis finally putting his injuries behind him. Lee takes another step forward with his bat this upcoming season? How about Wallner not having another hamstring injury and getting his OPS back to .800 again? Festa settles in as a high leverage arm like Duran, Jax, and Varland did? Matthews finds greater consistency in 2026 to go along with his high K numbers? These guys are all 27yo and younger.

Now, injuries beside, if we DON'T see improvement from the lot of them, we can start to question coaching and approaches.

While we all hope Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Abel, Prielipp, Morris, etc, all come up and look awesome in their debuts, it's not uncommon for some initial struggles or inconsistencies to begin with. 

In the history of the Twins alone, for every Puckett, Hrbek, or Mauer that shone immediately, there's a large collection of Gaetti, Hunter, Morneau, Rosie, Viola, etc, who needed a little time to "settle in".

If we see this next wave flounder, along with zero improvement from the aforementioned players, THEN we have a real issue. In the meantime, it's really more about some injuries that have slowed a few kids, a couple that were OK but not great, some who are hopefully about ready to break through, and some ready to debut. But we're also ignoring some very good success stories over the past 3-5 years.

[bunsen82]

For Posterity sake lets look at the drafts for players. 

2017-  Royce Lewis,   Brent Rooker, pitchers = ober  - although Rooker didn't do it for us that is a good draft

2018 - Larnach,  Jeffers, pitchers Sands  -  again a solid draft class for position players

2019 -   Wallner, Steer,  Julian  (Cavaco was the dud), pitchers  -  Cavaco, Gipson Long, Headrick, Laweryson Varland

2020 - Covid - 

2021 -  Noah Miller, CES, Fedko  - Pitchers - Petty, Hajjar, Povich, Adams, Festa,  Ohl  -   The issue with this class is the trading of the majority of the top of the class for help with the 2022 team.  

2022 -  Lee, Schobel,   pitching  - Priellip, Morris, Jones, Matthews, Lewis     

We will see what Lee becomes, but that is a ton of pitching talent.   

2023 -  Jenkins (looks like a stud), keaschall played like a stud,   Winokur (high ceiling),  pitching  Soto - had a 1.9 ERA before shut down.  

2024 -  Culpepper (looks really good), Debarge, Amick,  Diaw   - Pitchers - Hill

 

Those are really solid drafts.  The 1 knock if any is the lack of true stud players.  And Lewis is the bit of a whiff for me.   The 2023 draft has the potential of being an elite class.  That 2021 class was amazing how much talent came from it.  The issue is traded a lot away.  2022 - appears to be very very good class.  The pitching fell of a bit last year.  I still think you have 2-3 MLB arms plus Lee.   

When you really dig into it your realize the drafting really hasn't been the issue and has a ton of really good talent in the 2021 - 2024 classes.   

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Blah Blah Blah - its the same tired argument that has been used for years.  We will attack saying not enough value from prospects - while ignoring Lewis, Jeffers, Buxton, Ober, Arraez, Kepler, Jax, Varland,  Polanco ect.    Prospects come from a variety of pools.  There have been 2 high level picks,  Cavaco #13 pick (total flame job) and Lewis (#1).  Beyond that,  due to Falvey having a record of over .500  overall a lot of the picks have been late in the 1st round - in a draft that has low probabilities of hitting.  Its also ignoring the value of trades,  for Ryan, Duran and Lopez.    

The Twins also changed their draft strategies in 2021 - focusing more on hit tool and athleticism.  So it is not a surprise that since then not only are prospects arriving at the MLB level quickly - Keaschall and Lee  (Keaschall looks really good but I am sure you will find a way to minimize that) -  You have really solid prospects in Culpepper and Jenkins.   We now have a #3 draft pick in a draft that should have a similar quality pick to Jenkins.   The minors is loaded with pitching from Low A to AAA.   This is the first time where I have felt we have a pitching pipeline that is well developed.  We have continued to use draft capital like the trade of Petty for Gray to supplement the majors.  Overall that trade turned out really really well.  I like the long term projections - but go ahead and minimize what has been done because you are frustrated with the way that the Pohlads are managing the business.  Ultimately that is what this comes down to.  Unless they are going to spend more, it is going to be very difficult for the Twins to compete.   

Lewis - Hasn't produced a single full season yet. Last year was the closest, and he was barely worth starting (he's my favorite player... but objectively true)
Jeffers - Was specifically mentioned.
Buxton - Terry Ryan's draft, was already in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.
Ober - Was mentioned, but not by name.
Arraez - Terry Ryan drafted.
Kepler - Bill Smith signed, was in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.
Jax - Jax did provide solid value as a setup guy once he flamed out as a starter.
Varland - Similar to Jax, but with a lot less track record.
Polanco - Bill Smith signed, was in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.

Trade value for Ryan - You're 100% right, Joe Ryan was a huge steal, and a big feather in Falvey's cap.
Trade value for Duran - It did take 5 years for the Twins to turn Escobar's trade into a closer, but they were successful. It was an okay return.
Trade value for Lopez - I mean, this signifies my problem with Falvey's failure to draft/develop players as much as anything else. He traded an All Star drafted/signed by his predecessor and Falvey used that inherited asset to compensate for inability to draft/develop. Falvey has run out of previous GM talent pool and Falvey's teams have been terrible the last couple years as a result. No more coat tails to ride on.

Twins changed their draft strategies. While I can laud the change in directions after the admission he was bad at drafting, the fact Falvey was bad at drafting isn't a good thing. But... did they change much? Lewis was hit tool and athleticism. Cavaco was athleticism. Miller was hit tool and athleticism. Brooks Lee was hit tool. Jenkins was hit tool and athleticism... While there are less of the slugging outfielder profile, Larnach and Rooker (away from Minnesota) have been two of the most successful draft picks in Falvey's history. Btw, Keaschall wasn't a 1st round pick, let alone a high first round pick which is apparently critical to finding talent. We already know he can't be good because only high 1st round picks are expected to be successful based on your metrics? 

If you're reading my comment correctly, you're seeing you are arguing both sides as you run down your list in an attempt to justify your defense of Falvey's failures.

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lewis - Hasn't produced a single full season yet. Last year was the closest, and he was barely worth starting (he's my favorite player... but objectively true)
Jeffers - Was specifically mentioned.
Buxton - Terry Ryan's draft, was already in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.
Ober - Was mentioned, but not by name.
Arraez - Terry Ryan drafted.
Kepler - Bill Smith signed, was in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.
Jax - Jax did provide solid value as a setup guy once he flamed out as a starter.
Varland - Similar to Jax, but with a lot less track record.
Polanco - Bill Smith signed, was in MLB before Falvey came to the Twins.

Trade value for Ryan - You're 100% right, Joe Ryan was a huge steal, and a big feather in Falvey's cap.
Trade value for Duran - It did take 5 years for the Twins to turn Escobar's trade into a closer, but they were successful. It was an okay return.
Trade value for Lopez - I mean, this signifies my problem with Falvey's failure to draft/develop players as much as anything else. He traded an All Star drafted/signed by his predecessor and Falvey used that inherited asset to compensate for inability to draft/develop. Falvey has run out of previous GM talent pool and Falvey's teams have been terrible the last couple years as a result. No more coat tails to ride on.

Twins changed their draft strategies. While I can laud the change in directions after the admission he was bad at drafting, the fact Falvey was bad at drafting isn't a good thing. But... did they change much? Lewis was hit tool and athleticism. Cavaco was athleticism. Miller was hit tool and athleticism. Brooks Lee was hit tool. Jenkins was hit tool and athleticism... While there are less of the slugging outfielder profile, Larnach and Rooker (away from Minnesota) have been two of the most successful draft picks in Falvey's history. Btw, Keaschall wasn't a 1st round pick, let alone a high first round pick which is apparently critical to finding talent. We already know he can't be good because only high 1st round picks are expected to be successful based on your metrics? 

If you're reading my comment correctly, you're seeing you are arguing both sides as you run down your list in an attempt to justify your defense of Falvey's failures.

I posted the drafts for each year.  For relevancy sake the 2017-2019 drafts are really the only ones you can critique as those are the players who have either made the big leagues or washed out.  On a surface level,  those drafts are solid.  You are missing a stud player. 

The reason most of those players you mentioned developed under Falvey is because it takes 3-5 years to go through the minors then you have up to 6 years of control.  So you want to grade Falvey strictly on the 3 drafts I mentioned above and not give any credit for what is coming up through the farm system.  Don't you understand the fallacy in your arguments.  You won't give credit for Buxton, Kepler, Polanco (because they developed but weren't drafted under his watch)  but you also won't give him any credit for developing what could be viewed as the #2-#5 farm system (even with trading the majority of the 2021 top picks).  

As to drafts - you are failing to understand that odds decrease as you pick later in the draft or you take someone with a higher ceiling but even less odds of hitting.  High draft picks in good drafts is the easiest and most consistent way to find generational talent for a team.   This isn't that difficult to comprehend.  When you trade 5 of your top draft picks from the 2021 draft you most likely are not going to get a lot of benefit from that draft.   

You don't like Falvey.  That is clear and we have had the disagreements before.   I think Falvey on the draft side has actually been very very good especially the 2021 draft and moving forward.