Twins Minor League Report (6/24): Home Runs Lead Saints and Wind Surge to Second Half Opening Wins

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Not what I'm saying.

If they decide to blow up the 5-man rotation / 8 reliever paradigm in favor of eight 3-inning pitchers (on a 4 day rotation) and 5 relievers, where are they going to get 8 3-inning pitchers? They've been acquiring their starting pitchers from outside of the organization all along. They're not going to acquire 3-inning pitchers because nobody else is developing them. They're not going to be able to trade 3-inning pitchers to other organizations for other players because those orgs will want starters and relievers instead. Free agents won't want to come to Minnesota to become a 3-inning pitcher.

If this is just a different way to develop your reliever prospects in the minors, that's fine. However, they don't seem to be developing the starting pitchers that are the key to any organization's long-term success. Their top SP prospects are pitching 3-4 innings in the minor leagues at AAA. This doesn't prepare them to be starters.

It doesn't make sense to create a "relief pitcher pipeline" when relievers are readily available at little cost and starters are the most valuable resource in baseball. It's like focusing your position player development on producing DHs and utility players while ignoring C, SS and CF.

This isn't true. Zebby, Festa, Morris, etc. are not pitching 3-4 innings. They're pitching just short of 5. Like the rest of the league is doing with their top pitching prospects. 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/projections-fueled-top-30-pitching-prospects-midseason-2025-update/

Just released today. Fangraph's top 30 pitching prospects. There are 5 guys on the list who are averaging at least 5 innings. 5. 5 out of 30 of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Cinci, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, both NY teams, Miami, both Chicago teams, Houston, St Louis, Atlanta, Texas, Boston, Pit, Tampa, KC, Philly, formerly Oakland, Arizona, Colorado, San Fran. All on the list developing their top SP prospects the same way as the Twins. I don't like it. I wish all the teams would have their guys going 6+. But this isn't a Twins problem, it's a baseball problem. 

Jacob Misiorowski is taking baseball by storm. Out dueling Paul Skenes as we speak. He has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Andrew Morris has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Zebby was at 32.2 innings in 7 games. Festa 28.2 in 6. Chase Burns is an elite prospect who made his debut last night for the Reds. He has 66 innings in 13 minor league games this year. Less than 3 more innings spread out over 13 games than Morris.

This 3-4 inning every 4 days thing is not what they're doing with all their starters. It's what they're doing with a handful of guys.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This isn't true. Zebby, Festa, Morris, etc. are not pitching 3-4 innings. They're pitching just short of 5. Like the rest of the league is doing with their top pitching prospects. 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/projections-fueled-top-30-pitching-prospects-midseason-2025-update/

Just released today. Fangraph's top 30 pitching prospects. There are 5 guys on the list who are averaging at least 5 innings. 5. 5 out of 30 of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Cinci, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, both NY teams, Miami, both Chicago teams, Houston, St Louis, Atlanta, Texas, Boston, Pit, Tampa, KC, Philly, formerly Oakland, Arizona, Colorado, San Fran. All on the list developing their top SP prospects the same way as the Twins. I don't like it. I wish all the teams would have their guys going 6+. But this isn't a Twins problem, it's a baseball problem. 

Jacob Misiorowski is taking baseball by storm. Out dueling Paul Skenes as we speak. He has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Andrew Morris has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Zebby was at 32.2 innings in 7 games. Festa 28.2 in 6. Chase Burns is an elite prospect who made his debut last night for the Reds. He has 66 innings in 13 minor league games this year. Less than 3 more innings spread out over 13 games than Morris.

This 3-4 inning every 4 days thing is not what they're doing with all their starters. It's what they're doing with a handful of guys.

Thank for doing this. I watch too much minor league baseball and have seen a number of pitchers go 5 innings. Usually there is a pitch count used. 

My thought is that pitchers can go 90-110 pitches after they are built up. Command and control are still more effective than firing it 98-101 MPH down the middle. Misiorowski throws strikes with multiple pitches on the edges of the zone. Morris is very effective when he keeps the ball out of the middle of the plate too. The lesser pitchers go 3 innings or the prospects get pulled because they are reaching 35 pitches in an inning. I don't believe that baseball has figured out how best to develop pitching. It is a series of trials and errors. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Thank for doing this. I watch too much minor league baseball and have seen a number of pitchers go 5 innings. Usually there is a pitch count used. 

My thought is that pitchers can go 90-110 pitches after they are built up. Command and control are still more effective than firing it 98-101 MPH down the middle. Misiorowski throws strikes with multiple pitches on the edges of the zone. Morris is very effective when he keeps the ball out of the middle of the plate too. The lesser pitchers go 3 innings or the prospects get pulled because they are reaching 35 pitches in an inning. I don't believe that baseball has figured out how best to develop pitching. It is a series of trials and errors. 

I'm fascinated to follow Misiorowski's career. The fear with him has always been that he's a reliever in the long run because he doesn't throw enough strikes. He's a 5 BB/9, 14% BB rate kind of guy. Completely unsustainable at the major league level for a starter, theoretically. His stuff is so filthy that his K numbers are also massive and he's incredibly difficult to hit hard. And he's gotten his BB/9 down to 4. If he can keep his walks at 2 per 5 like he did today, that kid has a very bright future. If he can't, he has a very bright future as a closer. Throwing 100 opens doors.

I don't think baseball has any idea what they're doing when it comes to developing pitching. As you said, trial and error. If somebody figures out how to get guys to be effective and stay healthy they're going to be handed 30 blank checks and be able to pick which team they want to run.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

This isn't true. Zebby, Festa, Morris, etc. are not pitching 3-4 innings. They're pitching just short of 5. Like the rest of the league is doing with their top pitching prospects. 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/projections-fueled-top-30-pitching-prospects-midseason-2025-update/

Just released today. Fangraph's top 30 pitching prospects. There are 5 guys on the list who are averaging at least 5 innings. 5. 5 out of 30 of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Cinci, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, both NY teams, Miami, both Chicago teams, Houston, St Louis, Atlanta, Texas, Boston, Pit, Tampa, KC, Philly, formerly Oakland, Arizona, Colorado, San Fran. All on the list developing their top SP prospects the same way as the Twins. I don't like it. I wish all the teams would have their guys going 6+. But this isn't a Twins problem, it's a baseball problem. 

Jacob Misiorowski is taking baseball by storm. Out dueling Paul Skenes as we speak. He has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Andrew Morris has 63.1 innings in 13 AAA games this year. Zebby was at 32.2 innings in 7 games. Festa 28.2 in 6. Chase Burns is an elite prospect who made his debut last night for the Reds. He has 66 innings in 13 minor league games this year. Less than 3 more innings spread out over 13 games than Morris.

This 3-4 inning every 4 days thing is not what they're doing with all their starters. It's what they're doing with a handful of guys.

People just aren't willing to accept this is how MLB works now.

[DocBauer]

While the Twins need a spark, I'd still keep Julien down a but longer to see if what hes doing is sustainable. I want them to really be confident he's made good adjustments.

Noah Cardenas doesn't really have that much power, unless he's begining to unlock something. But don't dismiss him as a solid #2 backstop with a decent bat, good eye, good bat control, solid defense, and a good arm.

Sorry, but a brief fantasy indulgence on my part: A 2026 INF of Lewis, Correa, Keaschall, Lee, and Sabato with Culpepper and Schobel at some point, and Clemens as a fill in. (Sigh) OK, back to reality.

Honestly, if GG keeps hitting like this, does he get a month at St Paul to finish the season? 

Really happy to see E Rod and Martin healthy and back playing again. Still have a whole 2nd half of the season for them, and Jenkins to produce.

[DocBauer]

Touching on the pitching subject, the Twins are experimenting with arms that might not/probably can't be ML starters but could very good as quality middle guys who could very good for the middle innings. 

Think about a pen with Duran, Jax, Varland, Sands, Stewart, and Coulombe for reference sake as a trusted LH. Instead of IP fodder in blowouts or injury type replacements that get cut and shuttled up and down in the last couple of spots, you had a pair of guys who were good enough to be counted on for 2-3 IP twice a week as bridge guys. Think Adams, Ohl, maybe LH Rozak as examples. No more...or at least a lot less...churn and burn. Instead, 6 quality 1 IP guys and 2 who you can actually count on to do a quality job twice a week, ever 3 days. That's a hell of a bullpen! And a novel idea.

In the lower minors, SP often only go 3 or 4 innings, 5 once in a while. That's a lot of 18-20yo getting their feet wet and developing their stuff and slowly being ramped up and stretched out. I don't recall this being anything other than normal practice for decades.

As far as the upper levels, starters are usually stretched out more, with some sort of pitch limit, and usually pulled if they have a 30-35 pitch inning just to protect them.

But remember, some of these short starts are because a guy might be coming back from an injury. Culpepper and MacLeod, for instance, are being ramped up after missing time. Matthews, Festa, Morris, and others have usually been tossing 5 innings unless they just tire or have one of those bad innings that go long.

I don't know that anyone has a special book on how to develop arms. And I don't know that the Twins are any more right or wrong than anyone else in how they do so. But young kids throw fewer innings initially. Older prospects at the upper levels throw more. Most of the "fewer innings more often" are the medium level guys who still have potential that they are developing to be potential middle IP guys who could change the future of pen depth and usage.

[Cody Christie]

Some crazy Statcast data from the Wind Surge game
 

 

[Coach Wheels]

On 6/25/2025 at 7:35 AM, Jeff K said:

Given the terrible play by the parent club, the minor league reports are far and away the most interesting to me.  Julien's bat is heating up.  If only he had a position he could field.  Kaelen Culpepper continues to impress.

Normally, Julien get promoted back up with his current run but Lee is playing too well right now. Is Julien trade bait?