Article: Is There A Market For Morneau?

[mudcat14]

The good reason is to see once and for all if either or both Parmelee & Colabello can fill the position until some of the younger guys take it from them. Morneau will not be here next year, no matter what. We should find out over the remainder of the season whether 1B is a position of need or not.

[mudcat14]

If you can't get anything more than a player like a Pedro Hernandez or Eduardo Escobar like they got for Liriano you don't make the trade. You can sign fringe 40 man roster guys every year. You don't need to trade a veteran whos been a class act and good team player his entire career just for that crap filler.

 

Except one could argue that The Crap Filler you eluded to may have more value to the future of this team than Morneau does. People seem to forget that the "Team Player" has been compensated to the tune of about $75million for his services, and trading to a contender to finish out his walk year isn't exactly like throwing him on the **** heap. It could actually be doing him a favor to get a chance to have some success in meaningful games and help enhance his FA value.

[Mike Sixel]

My point about money was that they will not be winning next year if they do not sign some legit players. There is not enough help coming early next year to fix this team.

[drjim]

My point about money was that they will not be winning next year if they do not sign some legit players. There is not enough help coming early next year to fix this team.

 

You might be right but that is far from a guarantee. I don't say this to defend a lack of spending but more as an acknowledgement that this team is probably closer than you give it credit for.

 

I think they sign a decent pitcher and probably a bat but won't spend what people want.

 

In fact I almost guarantee payroll goes down but the team ends up as a fringe contender.

[bird]

The only thing that will bring back the average fan is winning. It will matter very little how much is spent (either way) to get to that point.

 

Yes. The average fan will attach very quickly to exciting new players. Frankly, the one thing that WILL keep fans from the park is the ticket prices, driven in large part by the free spending us rabid fans clamor for nonstop.

[Mike Sixel]

Hey, if they sign one legit pitcher, that's a big deal to me. Same with a decent bat. Two legit signings would be progress over this last offseason.

 

drjim, if Rosario and Sano come up at the beginning of the year, I agree, they are closer than I'm giving them credit for. But I have a feeling those two will be in AA or AAA to start the season, meaning the first month or two will be Dozier, Floriman, Plouffe, FA in the infield.......Willingham, Hicks, Arci in the OF....that looks a lot like this year. Pitchers? Gibson and um, well, we have no idea if May, Meyer, Baxendale, Darnell, anyone will be ready next year.

 

So, ya, adding a FA at 1B and a legit starting pitcher would be a big deal, drjim. Really big deal. The payroll can go down, but they can't enter next year with 1 pitcher with 4 question marks, and have the casual fan feel like buying tickets.

 

All of this is opinion, not fact....so YMMV.

[Guest USAFChief]

Yes. The average fan will attach very quickly to exciting new players. Frankly, the one thing that WILL keep fans from the park is the ticket prices, driven in large part by the free spending us rabid fans clamor for nonstop.

I don't think the relationship between ticket prices and player salaries is closely connected. In fact, I don't think there's much of a connection at all. If "free spending" drove ticket prices, shouldn't those tickets have been cheaper in 2012 than 2011, and cheaper in 2013 than 2012?

 

I think the Twins, like most businesses, set their prices at the point their market research indicates will generate the maximum revenue.

[Guest USAFChief]

You might be right but that is far from a guarantee. I don't say this to defend a lack of spending but more as an acknowledgement that this team is probably closer than you give it credit for.

 

I think they sign a decent pitcher and probably a bat but won't spend what people want.

 

In fact I almost guarantee payroll goes down but the team ends up as a fringe contender.

Pity then, that payroll wouldn't go up, and the team possibly improve from "fringe contender" to say, "solid contender."

[bird]

I don't think the relationship between ticket prices and player salaries is closely connected. In fact, I don't think there's much of a connection at all. If "free spending" drove ticket prices, shouldn't those tickets have been cheaper in 2012 than 2011, and cheaper in 2013 than 2012?

 

There's certainly a larger connection than not much connection at all, but I was trying to make the larger point about how professional sports is pricing the "average fan" out of the picture. Everything eventually reaches a clearing price. I think we're almost there, but this is topic is for another thread, probably not here.

[ThePuck]

Concerning payroll driving ticket prices:

 

Miami has the 10 largest average ticket price and they are 2nd to last in payroll.

Houston has the 9th largest average ticket price, but last in payroll.

 

Twins are have the 7th highest average ticket price, and we're in the bottom 3rd in MLB for team payroll

[TheLeviathan]

Concerning payroll driving ticket prices:

 

Miami has the 10 largest average ticket price and they are 2nd to last in payroll.

Houston has the 9th largest average ticket price, but last in payroll.

 

Twins are have the 7th highest average ticket price, and we're in the bottom 3rd in MLB for team payroll

 

Sounds like profit, not payroll is driving.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think the relationship between ticket prices and player salaries is closely connected. In fact, I don't think there's much of a connection at all. If "free spending" drove ticket prices, shouldn't those tickets have been cheaper in 2012 than 2011, and cheaper in 2013 than 2012?

 

There's certainly a larger connection than not much connection at all, but I was trying to make the larger point about how professional sports is pricing the "average fan" out of the picture. Everything eventually reaches a clearing price. I think we're almost there, but this is topic is for another thread, probably not here.

 

 

I agree with this, I know that ONE of the reasons I am not going to a game this year is that the prices are bad/high. I know I am there for the NFL for sure, and I'm a much bigger Vikings fan than Twins fan.

[IdahoPilgrim]

At some point, ticket prices will keep fans away. Since the Twins are still averaging above 30,000 per game this year, I'm going to say we aren't there yet.

 

And as far as winning=attendance, Oakland is having a darn decent year, and they are only averaging 21,000+ per game. Pittsburgh is at 23,000. And the Dodgers are leading the league at 43,000 with a sub-.500 record. I'm guessing the correspondence isn't as great as is often thought.

[Mike Sixel]

From what I recall, it is usually the previous year's record that drives attendance, because season tickets drive attendance, and those sales are largely based on previous years.

 

Plus, Oakland is in a horrible stadium, and the Dodgers have a HUGE market to pull from. Lots and lots of things go into attendance, but for those markets where it is driven by record, I think a study I saw said it was largely driven by the previous year(s).

[Kwak]

Lower payroll in 2014--count on it! No Morneau and his $14MM, Blackburn and his $5.5MM, or Butera and his $0.7MM contracts. Carroll, if retained, would be at a reduced salary. Sign a bat and and arm? If they do, it's another KC/Pelfrey for the pitcher, and a Doumit-like salary for "the bat"--and I'm really skeptical about any FA hitter. I estimate next year's payroll at $60MM.

 

How competitive will the Twins be in 2014? Let's wait until the AS break. If this strerch is ~.500 then next year will likely show some "competitiveness". But, if there is a disaster (like the 1-4 road trip we just saw!)--oh my! Ugly is the word for 2014. The Twins will just repeat 2011,'12, and '13. The Twins will need a substantial improvement in SP, and a significant improvement in hitting to reach the levels of 2002-2004--which will take either a lot of time, luck, or money to get new players.

[ThePuck]

Lower payroll in 2014--count on it! No Morneau and his $14MM, Blackburn and his $5.5MM, or Butera and his $0.7MM contracts. Carroll, if retained, would be at a reduced salary. Sign a bat and and arm? If they do, it's another KC/Pelfrey for the pitcher, and a Doumit-like salary for "the bat"--and I'm really skeptical about any FA hitter. I estimate next year's payroll at $60MM.

 

How competitive will the Twins be in 2014? Let's wait until the AS break. If this strerch is ~.500 then next year will likely show some "competitiveness". But, if there is a disaster (like the 1-4 road trip we just saw!)--oh my! Ugly is the word for 2014. The Twins will just repeat 2011,'12, and '13. The Twins will need a substantial improvement in SP, and a significant improvement in hitting to reach the levels of 2002-2004--which will take either a lot of time, luck, or money to get new players.

 

Don't forget Pelfrey's 4M goes bye-bye too for 2014.

[Oxtung]

At some point, ticket prices will keep fans away. Since the Twins are still averaging above 30,000 per game this year, I'm going to say we aren't there yet.

 

And as far as winning=attendance, Oakland is having a darn decent year, and they are only averaging 21,000+ per game. Pittsburgh is at 23,000. And the Dodgers are leading the league at 43,000 with a sub-.500 record. I'm guessing the correspondence isn't as great as is often thought.

 

The Dodgers have had winnings seasons in 11 of the last 13 seasons and either won or finished second in their division 7 of those seasons so they have been highly competitive for a long time. Oakland has had 4 losing seasons in their last 6 and Pittsburgh hasn't sniffed .500 in 20 years. Fans don't return at the drop of a hat when they're beat down for years at a time. They have found other things to do with their money and time.

[Oxtung]

You might be right but that is far from a guarantee. I don't say this to defend a lack of spending but more as an acknowledgement that this team is probably closer than you give it credit for.

 

I think they sign a decent pitcher and probably a bat but won't spend what people want.

 

In fact I almost guarantee payroll goes down but the team ends up as a fringe contender.

 

Over the next three seasons the Twins are going to start playing a lot of rookies. We should see at least 6 next season in some role with another 5+ the following season. While some rookies thrive immediately, for every Arcia there are a couple Hicks and Hendriks and Florimons. With that many rookies I don't see how the Twins can be competitive next season. IMO things are going to get worse before they get better.

[drjim]

Pity then, that payroll wouldn't go up, and the team possibly improve from "fringe contender" to say, "solid contender."

 

I personally have no problem with this. I think the issue will be a lack of supply of worthwhile free agents. Twins will want a corner bat and a starting pitcher. The former will be relatively cheap and the latter will not even be at a Sanchez level - those two signings won't offset the salary coming off the books.

[drjim]

Over the next three seasons the Twins are going to start playing a lot of rookies. We should see at least 6 next season in some role with another 5+ the following season. While some rookies thrive immediately, for every Arcia there are a couple Hicks and Hendriks and Florimons. With that many rookies I don't see how the Twins can be competitive next season. IMO things are going to get worse before they get better.

 

This is certainly possible but worst case in my opinion.

 

Pitching should be better next season as some younger arms replace the current dregs.

 

Hitting really can't get worse. Sano will be up most of the year, Hicks and Arcis should progress a little, perhaps some improvement in the Doziers of the world, and a clearing out of unproductive veterans.

 

They won't be world series contenders but they will be better.

[TheLeviathan]

I personally have no problem with this. I think the issue will be a lack of supply of worthwhile free agents. Twins will want a corner bat and a starting pitcher. The former will be relatively cheap and the latter will not even be at a Sanchez level - those two signings won't offset the salary coming off the books.

 

If you're waiting for the golden age of free agency when all-stars fall like leaves to the ground.....why don't you just admit that you never foresee the Twins signing an impact player? You have told us in the past that last season's class was awful, when it was, at worst, slightly below average. This year looks to be average, and that's without players that will likely sign before the end of the season ala Hamels/Cain.

 

It's just not going to happen, it's a disingenuous point.

 

Hitting really can't get worse.

 

That depends on who is in the lineup. We came into this season lauding the offense as the team's champion and it has been every bit as below average as many of us pointed out for the very reasons it was pointed out. Right now, we know we have Parmalee, Arcia, Doumit, Mauer, Hicks, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe coming back next year. We might see marginally better production, but I'm hardly confident of that until I see a few of these guys become more consistent.

[drjim]

If you're waiting for the golden age of free agency when all-stars fall like leaves to the ground.....why don't you just admit that you never foresee the Twins signing an impact player? You have told us in the past that last season's class was awful, when it was, at worst, slightly below average. This year looks to be average, and that's without players that will likely sign before the end of the season ala Hamels/Cain.

 

I have no idea what the beginning of this is referring to, but taking an actual look at potential free agents shows that there are no pitchers the caliber of Greinke or Sanchez (though that depends on how you feel about Nolasco, Garza, AJ Burnett, Josh Johnson, Lincecum), but there does seem to be more depth in the next tier compared to this past offseason. I expect the Twins to add a pitcher in this area. For some reason I keep thinking Phil Hughes.

 

Outside of Cano, I don't see any other elite free agents. There are some good OFs, but considering the makeup of the Twins organization I don't think it would be especially wise to overpay for one of them.

 

There are a few corner bats that would be worthwhile to add. Assuming they trade Willingham I could see the Twins making a play for one of them. Perhaps another IF if they don't have confidence in the current group.

 

I guess I don't know what you expect. I think if the Twins add a pitcher and a corner bat that would be a successful use of free agency next offseason.

[drjim]

For reference, here is a link to free agents for next year:

 

Potential Free Agents for 2014 | Cot's Baseball Contracts

 

If you disagree with my take, I would be interested in what other free agents people would like the Twins to sign.

 

(Of course this is a little premature, as Levi mentioned there are still possible extensions and I am making some assumptions on Twins trades).

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I don't know what you expect. I think if the Twins add a pitcher and a corner bat that would be a successful use of free agency next offseason.

 

It's just baffling trying to make sense of your arguments over time on this. You railed against Sanchez and Grienke because there were better options on the horizon (including this upcoming offseason) and now you think the next group is pretty bad. It might be, but that's the problem with waiting for the golden moment to strike in FA.

 

Good teams look a year or two ahead and try to anticipate. I too want them to add two FAs that would rank in the top 20-25 of the crop this coming year. Ideally at least one of them a SP. But they should've done that last offseason too. In part because putting your eggs in future baskets can wind up with a FA class you don't like.

 

Here's something for you to chew on: Between now and the first time we have to cut a 2-3M arb. check to Arcia, we might look back and see that Anibal Sanchez/Zach Grienke were the best pair of options that hit the market. And we waited, because....well...hell if I know why. There's no good reason IMO.

[drjim]

It's just baffling trying to make sense of your arguments over time on this. You railed against Sanchez and Grienke because there were better options on the horizon (including this upcoming offseason) and now you think the next group is pretty bad. It might be, but that's the problem with waiting for the golden moment to strike in FA.

 

Good teams look a year or two ahead and try to anticipate. I too want them to add two FAs that would rank in the top 20-25 of the crop this coming year. Ideally at least one of them a SP. But they should've done that last offseason too. In part because putting your eggs in future baskets can wind up with a FA class you don't like.

 

Here's something for you to chew on: Between now and the first time we have to cut a 2-3M arb. check to Arcia, we might look back and see that Anibal Sanchez/Zach Grienke were the best pair of options that hit the market. And we waited, because....well...hell if I know why. There's no good reason IMO.

 

Yes, I understand and appreciate your points on this, I wish you would at least consider a few of mine.

 

Here they are in no particular order in question form:

1. Do you actually like these contracts? Do you think the Twins should have gone higher and more years? Do you think the Twins would actually be able to outbid the Dodgers? Or the all-in Tigers? Does it give you some pause that teams with more financial resources, better chances for success this season, and needs in the starting rotation did not bid higher than these two teams? And you still want the Twins to beat the offers?

 

2. Do you have concern that the these two specific pitchers may see a drop off in their performance over the next 2-3 years? That is, do you have concern they will start to drop off right at the time the Twins are completing their ascension? Would it concern you that having money in these pitchers would prevent the Twins from signing a different pitcher at that time?

 

3. How confident are you that things will go right for the Twins over the next 3-4 years? Is there something to be said for being a little cautious after consecutive seasons losing more than 95 games? Might there be some benefit in waiting to see what emerges from the farm system (and players currently on the roster) before committing huge dollars to one pitcher?

[TheLeviathan]

Do you actually like these contracts?

 

If you're waiting to sign a good SP in FA and you have to "like" the deal...again I ask...why even the pretense to defend the idea you want the team to do it? Rarely are large contracts something to "like". What I like is adding desperately needed talent.

 

Do you think the Twins would actually be able to outbid the Dodgers? Or the all-in Tigers?

 

Dollars and years. So our front office says. So yes, yes I do. If they wanted to.

 

2. Do you have concern that the these two specific pitchers may see a drop off in their performance over the next 2-3 years?

 

No more than any other starter that will hit the market. No more than they could suck in year 1 ala Zito or even Grienke this year. It's always a risk. If you don't want to play with risk, again I ask, why the pretense?

 

Is there something to be said for being a little cautious after consecutive seasons losing more than 95 games?

 

Explain how not adding talent solves your problem of not having enough talent to win? That argument is pretty ridiculous. "Let's not add talent until we're sure we have talent". That's a good way to get into a nice, long streak of ineptitude. Plan for the best, adjust for the worst.

[John Bonnes]

I think there's a middle ground here that tends to get lost if we're not talking about specifics. I was disappointed that the Twins didnt't sign FA pitchers, but I also wasn't lobbying for Greinke/Sanchez. I seem to remember lobbying for Dempster and Ervin Santana, and probably a few others that didn't work out as well.

 

I think you can find some players which balance the risk or even use it as an opportunity to create an asset - like Willingham and his contract - that can provide a benefit to the season AND something other teams could value.

 

But I'll also say - I'll be surprised if the Twins do that. It's not Ryan's MO. I wish they did more of that.

[TheLeviathan]

It's not Ryan's MO. I wish they did more of that.

 

That's exactly my point. I am worried we are very ineffectively using one of only three ways to obtain talent. And Ryan seems fundamentally committed to it. (Not Ryan bashing, he does many things I love, but this is a major flaw)

[Mike Sixel]

What is not to like about the big contracts last year?

 

they have 2 players that will be in arbitration within 3 years, or 4 years, on their roster. They have 2 players after this year that make even $5MM per year. They get $25MM in new money next year.

 

The could have signed Grienke, and still had their payroll be lower next year than it is this year. They lose Blackburn, Pelfrey, Morneau, and get $25MM in new money....

 

Add 1 legit player a year, for a couple of years while you have no players making money, that's how the plan should work. That's the whole point of having 20+ guys making the minimum or so, you can afford to sign several really expensive guys. Not taking advantage of that payroll advantage is the mistake here, imo.