Which Non-Tendered Free Agent Outfielder Can Be of Most Help to Twins?

[Greglw3]

23 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.

Keirsey had a .300 batting average, .368 OBP, .476 SLG Pct and not an .800 OPS but an .845 OPS. Plus he had 14 HRs and 81 RBIs batting mostly leadoff. That’s unheard of. 

And he’s an ace defensive center fielder.

He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts. Nothing about this premium season in 2024 suggests that he should be pigeonholed into any generalizations like, subtract 150 or 200 on base points for MLB.

Some players are better in the majors than they were in the minors. I lived in Toledo when Kirby Puckett played for the Mud Hens and he was struggling along in the upper .230s to lower .240s, got called up, went off and the rest is history.

[Greglw3]

On 12/2/2024 at 9:52 PM, DJL44 said:

Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.

As I wrote to another poster, to say Keirsey hasn’t produced in AAA like he belongs in MLB, he did everything a leadoff hitter should do and then some, this is an absolutely splendid season!

Keirsey had a .300 batting average, .368 OBP, .476 SLG Pct and not an .800 OPS but an .845 OPS. Plus he had 14 HRs and 81 RBIs batting mostly leadoff. That’s unheard of. 

And he’s an ace defensive center fielder.

He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts. Nothing about this premium season in 2024 suggests that he should be pigeonholed into any generalizations like, subtract 150 or 200 on base points for MLB.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Some players are better in the majors than they were in the minors. I lived in Toledo when Kirby Puckett played for the Mud Hens and he was struggling along in the upper .230s to lower .240s, got called up, went off and the rest is history.

Regrettably, the reverse is also true. Some guys are Triple A All-Stars and really can't cut it in the majors. Andrew Stevenson put up similar numbers to Keirsey in 2023 and got a few chances with the Twins late. He was a Triple A star but a no-power, weak bat center fielder. In 2022, former overall #1 pick Tim Beckham was great in St. Paul, but lousy with the Twins (SSS) and I think he's out of baseball.

The Twins minor league staff has two major jobs--develop talent and identify players that can help the big club. If they're half-hearted about promoting someone like Keirsey or Helman, I think it indicates doubt that they believe their abilities will carry over on the highest level. The fact that both of these guys are "old prospects" makes me even more skeptical. 

I'm a Twins fan and want them to do well, so I'll be pulling for both of those guys, but I will be surprised if either is a major contributor to a good Twins team.

 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Keirsey had a .300 batting average, .368 OBP, .476 SLG Pct and not an .800 OPS but an .845 OPS. Plus he had 14 HRs and 81 RBIs batting mostly leadoff. That’s unheard of. 

And he’s an ace defensive center fielder.

That batting line is heard of quite often in AAA. It's not that impressive. I also think you're overrating Keirsey's glove in CF. He's an adequate defensive CF.

[Greglw3]

On 12/3/2024 at 10:30 AM, DJL44 said:

No, the HR robbing clip didn't require that much range. That ball was in the air a long time and he was waiting to time his jump.

The spread out diving catch happened because he was a tick late running in on the ball. The best CF make that catch without diving.

It isn't a slump. His range is in the 5th percentile (95% of outfielders are better) because his jump is 2 feet below average. He is a great athlete who reacts WAY too late. I think that he can improve, but it will take 1000 reps (or more). I don't know how much he can improve because he's already 25 years old and has been a professional outfielder for several seasons. It might be an undiagnosed vision issue.

Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com

I'll take your word for it and watch the clips again. I have to admit, I’m old school and don’t trust any of the new SABR inspired defensive metrics. I’d much prefer to see write-ups or interviews with a few MLB scouts, using the 20-80 scale for range, arm, errors, etc. 

One thing we agree on is he has a boatload of athletic ability. I also like that he makes a lot of contact, which will get runners in from 3rd on an out sometimes vs. K and spraying singles around can create a lot of 1st and 3rds. I’m still very hopeful on him but would still get Hays, Laureano, Profar and Winker. The offense needs a big infusion and much more depth.

[Greglw3]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That batting line is heard of quite often in AAA. It's not that impressive. I also think you're overrating Keirsey's glove in CF. He's an adequate defensive CF.

We agree to disagree!

From an article by Seth Stohs [ https://twinsdaily.com/profile/19-seth-stohs/ ] on Keirsey Jr. during 2023 season 

"Through 63 games this season, he is hitting .312/.367/.494 (.861) with 12 doubles, three triples, and he’s already got nine home runs. He has been successful in 24 of 28 stolen base attempts.

All the while, he has played great centerfield defense. He has made some spectacular diving plays but often catching balls that others might have to dive for look easy."

Next shot, sourced to MLB.com, quoting none other than Baseball America