Qualifying Offers, who should/will take them

[Trov]

The qualifying offers were made.  I personally saw some surprising names on the list that I think would be dumb to not sign it.  The list is: Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Luis Severino, Juan Soto, Christian Walker.  Keep in mind the QO is 21 mil, and many players try to use that as the starting point for pay. 

There are several no brainers to turn it down because they will clearly get a bigger deal.  Soto, Burns, Bregman, Fried to me are the only locks to turn down the offer.  I expect many more to turn it down, but as we have seen getting strapped with the QO tag can actually hurt you in FA. Keep in Mind Michael Wacha signed a 3 year deal with average 17 mil a year, min. 

Adames will most likely turn it down he is still under 30, plays SS and has been good hitter his whole career.  However, his defense took a hit last year, and will his bat play at 3rd or 2nd should the need to move come up?  I expect he to turn it down and get a deal without much issue. 

Alonso, he is a big question as to turning it down, or at least should think about taking the offer. He is going to be 30, he is not a good defender at 1st and coming off his worst offensive year.  I expect he will turn it down hoping to get multi year deal, but I think he will have a hard time finding a team willing to give him a deal he wants with the QO tag attached. He should sign and prove he still can be a big bopper.  

Hernandez will most likely turn it down as well.  However, I think he should take it.  He is 32, not likely to get more than a 2 to 3 year deal at best in normal FA year.  He has always been good hitter, and coming off of career year, but will that carry into his mid to late 30's doubtful. His defense has never been great.  My guess the QO tag will make teams shy away from him.

Manaea should take it, and he just might. He will be 33 next year.  He is not likely to get a long term deal as he has never been more than a solid 2 or 3 level starter.  Would a team be willing to give him even 1 year 21 mil without QO attached? I doubt it.  If he turns it down, I expect he will be the type that signs very late, even after the draft to not have any impact from the QO. 

Martinez should take it in a heart beat.  I was shocked to see him on the list.  He is 34, coming off career year and mostly was a pen guy. He started only 16 games last year.  He has been good since coming back to the states, but a 34 year old getting 21 mil for even 1 year when he had a career year is not likely.  If he turns it down he will not get signed to anything close to 21 mil for 1 year.

Pivetta also should take it and be very happy he got it. He will be 32, his profiles as a number 3 type starter, but looking to get paid like a number 1. He has never been a number 1 type guy. He will in no way match 21 mil for 1 year.  Sign it and hope to get a 2 year deal next year. 

Santander is a bit closer call.  I think he will turn it down but it will hurt his signabilty as well.  He is a solid hitter coming off career power year, he is a big risk of dropping off as he has always been high strike out guy.  Will he age well, maybe.  I just think teams will shy away.

Severino is a very interesting case.  He will most likely turn it down, and I think he will get a deal, but he is a guy that had great history, then injuries derailed things, but had a good bounce back year. He would be a solid number 2 guy, and if can stay healthy could be a number 1 type if needed. 

Walker should sign it too.  He is going to be 34, had a great couple of years at age 31 and 32.  Last year was good, but trending down.  Not too many teams would be willing to give too long of a deal for someone in his shoes, and add in the QO he will be hard pressed to get much more than that.  

I bet a couple might take it, but most turn it down.  However, we have seen many backfire over the years when they do turn it down.  They get much less than what they turned down, or get what they turned down, but sign for second half the season, giving up half the money and then have a poor season only to sign a prove it deal the next year.  Really wasting 1 year of career earnings.  So many of the pitchers line up close to Wacha, if not worse than him, and he did not even get 21 for 1 year.  Yeah he got 51 over 3, but that is without QO tag that hurts a FA.  Other than the no brainers I listed, I think the pitchers will take a huge risk to turn it down.

[nicksaviking]

Agree, most of those guys toward the back of the list should accept. For about a half decade now they've seen so many players just like them forced to take a lesser deal after waiting until after spring training opens or even the year starts. Just about every one of those players then has a down year, likely impacted by the lack of spring training, and are forced to take an even less favorable deal the following year.

Plus, these guys all should know that half of the league says they are cutting payroll. They're going to find fewer suitors than normal this year.

[Parfigliano]

No way Alonso or Manaea accept the QO.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

No way Alonso or Manaea accept the QO.

I agree they both most likely will turn it down, but I think they will both be in for rude awakening when offers start coming in.  As pointed out many teams are cutting payroll thanks to TV money dropping next year. This means even less money to go around.  Alonso is coming off a down year, not a terrible down year but a guy who is 30 and trending down and limited to 1B is not commanding a ton of money these days. 

Manaea has similar issue that he is aging and never been more than a number 2 pitcher.  Michael Wacha similar age, better career numbers could not top, or did not top 21 mil a year in his career and did not have QO tied to him. 

The issue is the players that turn down the QO try to use it as a starting point 1 year 21 mil.  However, teams say yeah you rejected that and we did not offer it.  Also, we will have to give up stuff so it costs our team more than 21 mil and need to factor that into our decision.  Additionally, some players then seek like 3 to 5 year deals which a guy like Manea will not get, maybe a 3 but doubt that even based on his age.  With pitchers you need to also worry about injuries later in career and losing whole years. 

[Trov]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree, most of those guys toward the back of the list should accept. For about a half decade now they've seen so many players just like them forced to take a lesser deal after waiting until after spring training opens or even the year starts. Just about every one of those players then has a down year, likely impacted by the lack of spring training, and are forced to take an even less favorable deal the following year.

Plus, these guys all should know that half of the league says they are cutting payroll. They're going to find fewer suitors than normal this year.

The QO became a killer for the middle of the road FA guys.  Early on a lot of fringe guys were getting it and everyone turned it down.  However, the players started to learn unless you are a superstar teams were not too keen on giving up draft picks, bonus pool money, or other perks like revenue sharing, depending on where you all fall in with things. 

Players finally started to accept the offers when they realized turning it down would affect them long term. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I agree they both most likely will turn it down, but I think they will both be in for rude awakening when offers start coming in.  As pointed out many teams are cutting payroll thanks to TV money dropping next year. This means even less money to go around.  Alonso is coming off a down year, not a terrible down year but a guy who is 30 and trending down and limited to 1B is not commanding a ton of money these days. 

Manaea has similar issue that he is aging and never been more than a number 2 pitcher.  Michael Wacha similar age, better career numbers could not top, or did not top 21 mil a year in his career and did not have QO tied to him. 

The issue is the players that turn down the QO try to use it as a starting point 1 year 21 mil.  However, teams say yeah you rejected that and we did not offer it.  Also, we will have to give up stuff so it costs our team more than 21 mil and need to factor that into our decision.  Additionally, some players then seek like 3 to 5 year deals which a guy like Manea will not get, maybe a 3 but doubt that even based on his age.  With pitchers you need to also worry about injuries later in career and losing whole years. 

I'm not a player, but I'm pretty sure that average annual value is only one criterion they go by.  Of greater importance is the total guaranteed value over the life of the contract.  Giving up $21M in the interest of locking up, say, $60M across 4 years, might seem like a better gamble for a player than taking the $21M in hopes of getting a future contract (or series of them) totaling $39M over the remaining 3 years, in view of the chance of career-ending injury or simply declining performance with age.

Of course if a player is in the echelon that will attract multi-year offers above $21M per year, the decision to turn down the QO is trivial - that's a win.  But if a player turns down the QO and doesn't get $21M per year, it doesn't mean he lost, or is even being punished for his foolish greed.  Fans enjoy the morality-play aspects the off-season has to offer, but really this is just a business decision by all parties, eyes mainly wide open.

[Trov]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm not a player, but I'm pretty sure that average annual value is only one criterion they go by.  Of greater importance is the total guaranteed value over the life of the contract.  Giving up $21M in the interest of locking up, say, $60M across 4 years, might seem like a better gamble for a player than taking the $21M in hopes of getting a future contract (or series of them) totaling $39M over the remaining 3 years, in view of the chance of career-ending injury or simply declining performance with age.

Of course if a player is in the echelon that will attract multi-year offers above $21M per year, the decision to turn down the QO is trivial - that's a win.  But if a player turns down the QO and doesn't get $21M per year, it doesn't mean he lost, or is even being punished for his foolish greed.  Fans enjoy the morality-play aspects the off-season has to offer, but really this is just a business decision by all parties, eyes mainly wide open.

The multi year versus single year will play into it.  Which is why some will and should turn it down for that reason.  However, many I pointed out are at an age a 3 to 5 year deal is not likely, and most teams will only look for a 1 to 2 year deal.  Some of the guys are 33 to 34 years old and had peak years.  Will they get a 3 year deal worth say 40 mil, doubtful.  Maybe, but doubtful.  They may get like a 2 year 25 to 30, but is that much better then a 21 plus what you can get a second year, maybe not. 

We have seen too many players hoping on getting that multi year deal only to not get it and then sign mid-season and have come back the next year signing a 1 year deal on a prove it contract. 

[tony&rodney]

Haven't really thought about who should or should not accept a qualifying offer because I don't think the Twins will be in on free agents. I would like to see them in on Christian Walker though. A quick guess, not going over the list, makes me think Walker gets 3/$49M and Martinez gets 3/$42M. i will have to look what MLBT suggests now.

[Trov]

On 11/6/2024 at 8:01 PM, tony&rodney said:

Haven't really thought about who should or should not accept a qualifying offer because I don't think the Twins will be in on free agents. I would like to see them in on Christian Walker though. A quick guess, not going over the list, makes me think Walker gets 3/$49M and Martinez gets 3/$42M. i will have to look what MLBT suggests now.

Maybe they would get those offers if not having the QO attached.  However, as we have seen the middle of the road FA get hosed in offers because of the QO.  Many teams will not even want to sign them because of how the QO will hit them.  Which then limits the demand.  Which then if only 1 or 2 teams are in many will not pump up the price against themselves.  So then the players either take less than they normally would, or hold out.  Many hold out, sign mid-season to a 1 year deal and most of the time hurt their value, sign the next year to a lessor deal.  

That is why I suggest the ones I did should sign, get the money, then hit FA next year again hoping to get a deal then.  It is a huge risk from some to turn it down hoping teams are willing to give up possible draft picks, international signing money, or revenue sharing.  That just makes the FA that more expensive to the overall development of the team.  The picks are the biggest thing.  Even if that particular pick would not pan out at MLB in the future, the bonus pool is hurt, and the players could be used for future trades.  It has a huge effect down the road. That is part of the reason so many teams shy away from middle of road FA on shorter term deals when a QO are attached.