Jeff Hoffman 2.0? How Reliever Scott Blewett Could Signal Redemption for the Twins

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins let All-Star Reliever Jeff Hoffman get away. Could Scott Blewett be their chance of redemption?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

On Feb. 27, 2023, the Minnesota Twins signed pitcher Jeff Hoffman to a minor league contract. Deemed a reclamation project, the hard-tossing right-hander had just completed his seventh season in MLB (five with the Colorado Rockies and two with the Cincinnati Reds). He had yet to put together a stretch of sustained success as a starter or reliever, evidenced by accumulating only 0.9 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 348 1/3 innings pitched. Still, he was a veteran arm with an intriguing pitch mix primarily comprised of a four-seam fastball, slider, and splitter. Twins decision-makers elected to take a chance on him.

Hoffman showed flashes of excellence during spring training with Minnesota, posting a 3.60 ERA, 2.41 FIP, and an astounding 42.1% strikeout rate over just five innings pitched as a reliever. The 30-year-old was in the mix to make the team's Opening Day bullpen. However, the Twins released him on Mar. 28, 2023, electing to round out their 'pen with younger relievers in Jorge Alcalá and Jovani Moran while adding Cole Sands as the de facto stretch reliever. Hoffman signed with the Philadelphia Phillies three days later, marking the beginning of a career renaissance.

Now 31, the right-hander has quickly become one of baseball's best high-leverage set-up relievers, posting a combined 2.17 ERA, 2.41 FIP, and a resounding 141-to-33 strikeout-to-walk-ratio in two seasons with Philadelphia. He earned his first All-Star nod this season and has solidified himself as the best reliever on the team with the best record in the National League. Evidently, the Twins made a mistake. Yet, there was no way to know that a then-middling reliever brought in on a minor league contract as a reclamation project would blossom into one of baseball's most impactful high-leverage arms.

 

While this outcome is unfortunate, the Twins bullpen has performed well during Hoffman's emergence in Philadelphia, ranking 20th in fWAR last season and seventh through 123 games this season. Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart (when healthy), Alcalá, and Sands have developed into steady, high-leverage arms that any manager in MLB would love to have at their exposure. Still, having an emergent Hoffman in the back end of the bullpen with the five aforementioned arms would be a welcomed luxury - one the Twins must go without. However, the Twins may have stumbled upon an ultra-specific opportunity for redemption.

Last Monday, Scott Blewett made his Twins debut against the Kansas City Royals. Making his first appearance in MLB since Sept. 19, 2021, the 28-year-old right-handed reliever excelled against his former team, causing Maikel Garcia to hit a groundball back to him for an easy out. He then struck out Kyle Isbel and got Michael Massey to fly out to centerfield in a 1-2-3 top of the ninth. The Twins decidedly won the contest with Kansas City 8-to-3, meaning Blewett's first appearance in nearly three years came in a low-leverage situation.

Pitching against Kansas City, Blewett showcased a plus slider, splitter, and four-seam fastball. He heavily relied on his slider, throwing it nine times. He threw his splitter and four-seam fastball three times each. Interestingly, Blewett has an almost identical pitch mix to Hoffman. On his road to dominance in Philadelphia, Hoffman has relied on his slider, tossing it 43.8% of the time in the past two seasons. He has thrown his four-seam fastball a combined 36.5% of the time and his splitter 15% of the time during that stretch.

Again, Hoffman has thrown 103 1/3 innings, while Blewett has thrown just one. Still, if one were to extrapolate Blewett's performance over the same stretch, there is reason to believe he would throw the same pitches a strikingly similar percentage of the time.

When looking at Hoffman's pitches this season, they grade out in the following manner:

• Four-seam fastball: 119 Stuff+
• Slider: 112 Stuff+
• Splitter: 108 Stuff+

Hoffman possesses a cumulative 115 Stuff+ on all pitches and a 101 Location+, which assesses a pitcher's ability to put pitches in the right place. In Blewett's sole appearance, his pitches demonstrated high variance. His four-seam fastball had a 75 Stuff+. His splitter had a whopping 181 Stuff+, and his slider had a slightly above rating of 103 Stuff+. He manufactured a cumulative 113 Stuff+ (only two points below Hoffman) and 103 Location+ (two points above Hoffman). So, while his fastball graded much poorly than Hoffman's, Blewett could have a better splitter and a similarly effective slider.

Again, it is vital to note that we are analyzing an inning pitched. Yet, there is no reason to believe Blewett's numbers would dramatically alter if he received more opportunities with Minnesota. It is on the basis of these traits that the Twins brought in Blewett and turned to him in the first place.

Another striking similarity between Hoffman and Blewett is their frames. Hoffman stands at 6'5", 235 lbs. Blewett resides at 6'6", 245 lbs. Both pitchers utilize their height to net above-league-average extension, deceiving hitters with their mid-90s fastballs and offspeed and breaking pitches. Also, Blewett and Hoffman have very similar deliveries.

Here is Hoffman throwing a 97 MPH four-seam fastball to Milwaukee Brewers' infielder Joey Ortiz on Jun. 5, 2024. 

 

 

Now, here is Blewett throwing a 95 MPH to Garcia in his Twins debut on Aug. 12, 2024.

 

 

 

Hoffman holds the ball slightly lower pre-pitch than Blewett. However, Hoffman consistently releases the ball at six feet while Blewett releases the ball at six feet, two inches. The two relievers release the ball from relatively similar slots. 

The day after his Twins debut, he was designated for assignment to make room for Zebby Matthews on the 40-man roster. It was initially reported that Blewett accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A two days after he was designated for assignment on Aug. 15. However, his status with the organized quickly changed as it was reported he elected free agency on Aug. 16. Blewett entered the open market, likely trying to capitalize on his impressive debut with the Twins. This mode of operation for him and his representation was wise, as he was beginning to garner attention around different fanbases.

Nevertheless, he returned to the Twins organization and was again assigned to Triple-A. Blewett could easily never make another appearance with the Twins, making this display of mental gymnastics a moot point. Considering his and Hoffman's similar frames, release points, and overall pitch quality, however, Blewett could provide the Twins a unique opportunity to redeem themselves for letting Hoffman go a little less than a year and a half ago. Still, if Blewett receives another opportunity with the Twins, they would gladly accept him being half the pitcher Hoffman has been since joining Philadelphia. 

Videos courtesy of Baseball Savant.

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[LambchoP]

Blewitt didn't impress me all that much in the few innings I saw him pitch for us. Ronny Henriquez on the other hand looked like a potential relief weapon last night against the Rangers. He went two innings without giving up any runs or any hard hit balls. Few strikeouts I believe, hitting 97MPH on the gun. He may not be viable as a starter anymore like he was in the minors. But another good reliever that can go multiple innings would be a great boost for our used and overly abused bullpen. Just wish we could find a solid lefty so we could dump Theilbar and Okert! I've got to believe there's a lefty in AAA or the major league waiver wire that would easily outperform Theilbar and Okert.

[DocBauer]

Letting Hoffman go after flashing in ST when the other arms kept had options was a huge mistake. A mistake that made no sense then, and even less now.

Blewitt is having a solid year for the Saints, and he may have room to get better, but he's not exactly dominating with more hits than IP.

I'm more interest3d in seeing Henriquez sustaining good performance for a time. Possibly even Winder...when he's eligible to come up again...if his latest stretch is believeable.

Nothing against Blewitt, but being good, not great, at AAA doesn't make him another Hoffman simply because they have a similar pitch mix, IMO.

[Brandon]

No one on this site was happy when Hoffman or Coloumbe left the team.  I think we preferred to have them in the pen and rookies in AAA to start the season.  Lots of missed opportunities with losing both of those pitchers.  Though I am happy to see Sands improving.  I wasn’t sure he would make it.  I think Winder is getting better and better too.  Henriquez improves our return on the Garver trade if I remember correctly.  I would be happy if Blewett came back up and doesn’t blowit🤪.   The fun is being patient and watching this all play out.

[sftwinsfan]

It was brief, but to me he passed the eye test when he made his appearance. Don't know how he carries that forward as far as control and command, but he seemed interesting. As for Okert, I wouldn't even bother replacing him with a lefty. I'd much rather a competent right-hander take the mound than throw Okert out there. I cringe when he enters the game, Richards and Thielbar too. 

[PatPfund]

Well, anything is possible, but trying to do statistical analysis of one inning's output is essentially void of any real meaning (like predicting someone will go hitless or bat .750 based on the first two games of the year). So this is pure speculation, and despite supposed interest elsewhere, Blewitt got a resounding empty room echo on his brief attempt at free agency. He'll have a chance to prove he can be useful in St Paul.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm always a bit puzzled when the Twins call up a guy, he pitches or hits well, and then they send him back down a day or two later. Of course I realize it's a numbers game in most cases, and some other player is coming off the IL, or is being signed, but come on, give guys like Blewett more than a one game look, and then discard them like a bag of rotting vegetables.. Whether it's him, or a guy like Henriquez, we need to be seeing what they can bring to the team in the coming weeks, before the Twins have to solidify their playoff rosters. We've already lost a few arms in the pen, not to mention the starting rotation, so I think it would be smart to take a deeper look at pitchers like Blewett. 

[Dman]

Some context on Hoffman.  IRRC I thought he had some control problems (walks) that spring and looked like he needed a bit more time, but beyond that the Twins had a ton of young bullpen arms taking up 40 man space and we had all lamented that they didn't have enough arms they could send up and down when they needed a long reliever.  As well as a lot of us wanting them to play the young guys to see what they could do at the MLB level (i.e find out if they should be kept on the 40 man).

Hoffman and Coloumbe looked OK that spring, but they didn't look all that special.  I think there was more chatter about keeping Coloumbe on the roster than Hoffman at the time. Again I might not remember correctly but several people on the board felt Coloumbe had earned a spot, but when he cleared it was no big deal.  Then the Orioles came calling early in the season and they did the right thing and let Coloumbe get his chance elsewhere.

Hoffman had been solid the year before with Cincinnati but his WHIP was high due to walking too many guys and like I said earlier in the spring he didn't give a great vibe that he had conquered that issue and the Twins don't love guys that give up too many walks.  It was combination of things that led them to not giving him a true chance and he proved a lot of teams wrong.  Cincinnati I would think would have to be feel even more unfortunate as they let him get away for nothing and they had him.