Should the Twins Shift Griffin Jax Back to Starting Pitcher?

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

ps.... Oh, and if readers are saying no to an article that says no, isn't that not a double negative?

No, no isn't.  😊

[NYCTK]

23 hours ago, Bodie said:

Moving a short reliever into the rotation seldom works. 

There are a lot of examples of it working extremely well just in the last couple seasons. And not just elite stuff guys like Hicks, but from non-dominant relievers too, like Seth Lugo. If he wants to give it a go the Twins should 100% encourage him to stretch out and worst case scenario, we're one year from today and he's sitting on a 5.50 ERA and they decide to throw him back in the pen. 

There's obviously no way they would ever consider doing this right now in the middle of the season. 

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland got lit up today to continue his minor league struggles after a recent decent start for the Twins. Maybe it is time to shift Varland back to the bullpen to get him some confidence (if he can find the groove he had last year in the pen).

Varland's unlikely to be a viable rotation arm. He had some nice results in his last couple appearances (especially the 4 inning relief appearance), but the rocket ship contact velocity he's been giving up isn't going to produce sustainable good appearances.

That said, if Varland moves into the 'pen again, he's probably there permanently, assuming he can be effective as a reliever.

[wabene]

As the article clearly states this proposed move would be in the off-season to be ready for next season. There are many things to consider. 

First, Jax has stated he would like to make the move. This obviously has something to do with starters being paid better. There might be other factors since the work regimen is so different. He might miss the routine of a starter. 

The days of the Twins scrounging the dumpster for starters seems to have passed. They have young talent coming. Considering they don't like to pay retail for relievers, the bullpen will present more of a need next year. 

Will his stuff play? If he keeps his stuff up, will his health continue? Jax has been very reliable, arguably the most reliable reliever during his tenure. How his stuff and health react to a move are unknown. 

Who moves to open a spot? SWR may never let go of his place. Pablo, Ryan and Ober are entrenched. That leaves Paddack. At 7.5 million next year he may have priced himself out of a role in the Twins meagre bullpen budget. 

With Jax's work ethic it is intriguing to see what he could become. He is the Twins best candidate for this move ( I wouldn't trust Duran to hold up). If the Twins were willing to spend on the pen then maybe. As things stand I would take a hard pass on this. 

As a side note it is curious that Driveline's brass would promote something like this. They have a relationship with the ballclub to maintain. Are they over stepping their bounds here?

[bean5302]

28 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

There are a lot of examples of it working extremely well just in the last couple seasons. And not just elite stuff guys like Hicks, but from non-dominant relievers too, like Seth Lugo. If he wants to give it a go the Twins should 100% encourage him to stretch out and worst case scenario, we're one year from today and he's sitting on a 5.50 ERA and they decide to throw him back in the pen. 

There's obviously no way they would ever consider doing this right now in the middle of the season. 

Lugo had quite a bit of success as a starter:
2016 47 IP, 2.68 ERA
2017 98.1 IP, 4.76 ERA
2018 23.0 IP, 3.91 ERA
2020 26.1 IP, 6.15 ERA
In 2020, the Mets just randomly decided one day at the end of the season Lugo was going to be a starter and instead of pitching 1 inning, he was going to pitch 5 or 6. Lugo had a couple really awful starts that skewed his numbers, but again, pretty successful.

Here's an article supporting what you're talking about, though. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-relievers-succeeding-as-starting-pitchers-in-2024

I just don't think Jax is going to be so effective.

[Fred]

Not only no, but........I'm starting to think he should be the closer.

[SwainZag]

16 hours ago, NYCTK said:

There are a lot of examples of it working extremely well just in the last couple seasons. And not just elite stuff guys like Hicks, but from non-dominant relievers too, like Seth Lugo. If he wants to give it a go the Twins should 100% encourage him to stretch out and worst case scenario, we're one year from today and he's sitting on a 5.50 ERA and they decide to throw him back in the pen. 

There's obviously no way they would ever consider doing this right now in the middle of the season. 

Lots?  There are very few actually.  

Jax is 29 years old.  He has over the last 4 years transitioned from a back end starter to one of the more elite relief pitchers in baseball.  Why would you want to change that?  

 

[NYCTK]

6 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Lots?  There are very few actually.  

Jax is 29 years old.  He has over the last 4 years transitioned from a back end starter to one of the more elite relief pitchers in baseball.  Why would you want to change that?  

 

There are plenty. 

And the reason is straight forward. A mediocre starting pitcher is still way more valuable than a set up man. The twins are quite fortunate SWR has worked out as well as he has. There was no indication he was going to come up and be a decent starter and if it failed we'd have a massive hole. 

 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

There are plenty. 

And the reason is straight forward. A mediocre starting pitcher is still way more valuable than a set up man. The twins are quite fortunate SWR has worked out as well as he has. There was no indication he was going to come up and be a decent starter and if it failed we'd have a massive hole. 

 

Disagree. 

Mediocre starters are only more valuable on a spreadsheet. 

In truth, they're pretty easy to find. Every team has several. Interchangeable, unremarkable, putting up similar results to many others.

Impact relievers are way more impactful. They're harder to find, as well.

We've got one in Jax. Leave it alone. 

If Jax could throw this kind of stuff for 6 innings every five days, great. Move him.

But he won't. Been there, done that.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Disagree. 

Mediocre starters are only more valuable on a spreadsheet. 

In truth, they're pretty easy to find. Every team has several. Interchangeable, unremarkable, putting up similar results to many others.

Impact relievers are way more impactful. They're harder to find, as well.

We've got one in Jax. Leave it alone. 

We'll agree to disagree then, but what's the harm in trying? 

A) If Jax actually wants to do it, allowing him to try helps build the relationship with the player

B) If he succeeds, he could be Seth Lugo, a good #2 or #3 starter

C) If he fails, we can throw him back into the bullpen and he's still Griffin Jax

There's only upside and no visible downside to it unless you're concerned about injury. I don't know if there's any evidence of increased injury risk from someone going to bullpen to starting in the offseason.