Could the Marlins and Twins make another hitter for pitcher swap?

[rico7961]

How about offering Larnach and P Headrick for Edward Cabrera. You could substitute Miranda, Kiriloff, or even Wallner in some kind of offer for Cabrera. Cabrera has a lot of upside and is controlled for 5 more seasons. The Marlins maybe value him quite high, but their losing Soler and might be looking to add some hitting. 

[Jocko87]

I was looking at this last night.  The Marlins pitching depth is stupid deep, there are about 4 guys who would be fits.  They don’t have a RH bat they could send with for a one stop shop though, Soler was the closest thing.  

Hard to know what they would want with the new leadership though, they may be even more likely to sell pitching assets.  My trade away target is Julien and we just gave them one of those so it may not fit. 

[TopGunn#22]

Wallner would be way above Edward Cabrera rico, but your Larnach & Headrick deal could work.  I have my eye on Cabrera but also a couple somewhat "forgotten" pitchers the Marlins have.  I would expand the deal and have it look a little like this:

Twins Get:  Edward Cabrera BBTV of 8.5 26 years old.  Sixto Sanchez RHP 0.0 value 26 years old and Ryan Weathers LHP 0.0 value and 24 years old.  Total value of 8.5

Marlins Get:  Trevor Larnach 7.8 value, a 27 y/o OF  Misael Urbina 2.3 value, a 21 y/o OF and Nick Gordon .20 a 28 y/o utility.  Total Value of 10.3.

On the surface it's an overpay for the Twins but I'm fine with that.  If the Marlins needed an arm I'd substitute Headrick (1.7 value) for Urbina.  The secondary arms in the deal are what I'm actually after. 

Sixto Sanchez has an electric arm but has battled injuries the last couple seasons.  He's got HUGE potential, but his value has cratered to a net zero.  He's a lottery pick worth being patient with.  The Marlins may be ready to move on, with young arms like Eury Perez, Max Meyer (who's had his own injury issues) and others having passed Sanchez by.  The other arm is Ryan Weathers who the Marlins acquired as a throw in from the Padres.  Weathers looked really good as a 22 year old LH starter for the Padres in 2021, but he's fallen on some hard times as well.  Both Sanchez and Weathers are gambles worth taking. 

Weathers is younger than Headrick and reached MLB as a 22 year old.  I'd swap those two out any day of the week.  Either of Sanchez and Weathers can remain as SP's or fill a bullpen slot until they prove their effectiveness and health.  Kind of like moving Varland to the pen for the "now" but leaving a return to the rotation possible in the future.

This kind of deal would compel the Twins to make a BIG move for a SP in either another, bigger trade, which could be tough if they've moved Larnach, one of their top trade chips for the off season, or, to make a BIG splash in free agency for a guy that would slot right next to Lopez at the top of the rotation.

Cabrera, Weathers and Sanchez are all still VERY affordable.  There would be room, even with a reduced budget to do this.  Cabrera is the headliner.  But Weathers and especially Sanchez are the diamonds in the rough.    

 

[2wins87]

I've seen Edward Cabrera come up a couple times now recently.  I'm guessing people are looking at BBTV values, but I take the fact that he is coming up a lot in trade discussions as an indication that he is probably way undervalued by their model.  I think their model is good, but no model is going to hit every player with precision.  I tend to think that for guys in their $10MM surplus value range the margin for error is probably big enough that their actual value could end up anywhere less than half to more than double the BBTV value.  I would guess that the Marlins would probably value him much higher than the $8.5 MM on BBTV, maybe closer to $15MM or more.

The Marlins do still have enough pitching depth that I could see him being made available.  He still hasn't pitched over 130 innings in a year so durability is a question, and the other big question is whether he will ever develop enough control to be better than a #3/#4. I think they would try to move Trevor Rogers before Cabrera though.

My impression is that Larnach would probably be a bit too light and Headrick doesn't really move the needle on the trade.  Maybe Larnach with a better second piece could be enough?  I'm not sure, but the BBTV value on Cabrera feels much too low to me.

[stringer bell]

I like the idea of trading a young left handed bat for pitching, be it Larnach, Wallner or Julien. The latter two likely have more value currently, but also have clear roles for the 2024 Twins.

Rogers was pretty good before getting injured IIRC, and would be controlled for a shorter time. Cabrera would be a more speculative get, but could really flourish with regular work and good health.