Twins Pitcher of the Month: August 2023

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins finished August with a 15-12 record, but faced diminishing results from some key starting pitchers and system failure from much of the bullpen. What pitchers were able to overcome this inertia and rose to the occasion in order to keep the Twins in first place? 

Roles reversed in August, as the Twins saw their starters achieving more quality starts, while the previously lights-out bullpen stumbled in streaky fashion. As the boom or bust offense continued to seek its way, the pitching staff felt the pressure and mostly stepped up to the rubber with confidence. Here are the best of the best for the Twins pitching staff in August. 

Honorable Mention
Jhoan Duran - 12 G, 2.84 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 17 K
Duran's August left Twins fans with a bitter taste in their mouth after poor fielding and wild pitches led to a Guardians comeback in the final game of their recent series. This wasn't the only blip on the radar for Duran. He gave up a run or more in five of his twelve appearances and took two losses in the process. Duran is still the king of the bullpen, and the go-to closer for the Twins. His ability to regain consistency around the strike zone, especially with his fastball, will be important for the playoff push. August actually was a better overall month than July for Duran, so hope is trending in the right direction for his September.

August Pitchers of the Month
#4. Dallas Keuchel - 4 G, 3.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 18 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 6 K
For Dallas Keuchel, simply pitching for the Twins this season was in question in July. By the end of August, he had contributed to three victories and offered some of the best pitching of the month. From his August 6th victory against the Diamondbacks to his flirtation with perfection on August 20th against the Pirates, Keuchel has shown moments of the pinpoint control and Cy Young experience that got him to this point in his career. In his start against the Phillies in Philadelphia, he didn't make it out of the second inning before six runs had crossed the plate. 

The closest example to what Twins fans might expect from Keuchel in September and beyond came on August 27th in the "piggy-back" game against the Rangers. He bailed out Bailey Ober and kept the Rangers scoreless until a rally could transpire. 

#3. Emilio Pagan - 13 G, 3.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 9 K
Pagan is the only pitcher to stay on the list from July to August. The "Paganaissance" continued, as Pagan's increased usage in high-leverage situations helped the Twins gain victories with only one home run hiccup. Pagan pitched in 13 of the team's 27 games and garnered weak contact to the tune of a .189 BABIP. With others in the bullpen imploding, Pagan has consistently stepped up into the situation that the game requires, silencing critics and establishing himself as a go-to arm for the stretch run. His ERA elevated almost two full runs between July and August's performances, but the overall results remained strong.

#2. Sonny Gray - 6 G, 2.04 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 39.2 IP, 27 H, 7 BB, 41 K
While Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober didn't live up to their July success, Gray found a way to improve upon his. En route to a league leading ERA, Gray continued to give the Twins a chance to win day in and day out, and managed to last longer into his starts as well.

Despite this individual statistical success, the Twins only went 3-3 in his six starts in August. The Twins inability to complete the victory after a Gray start has stung his resume since May, and one must question what factors support this trend given that run support and defensive metrics don't seem to support the struggles. As the only Twins pitcher in the Cy Young conversation, Gray needs to be celebrated, but he wasn't able to climb to the top spot this month which goes to...

Winner: Pablo Lopez - 6 G, 2.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 36 IP, 37 H, 7 BB, 36 K
In August, the Twins won five of Lopez's six starts, with the only loss being a quality start against the Guardians this past week. The Lopez/Gray debate is a coin flip statistically, but Lopez comes out on top in my book for looking the part of team leader and displaying less volatility between starts (especially with regard to control in the final innings of his outings). I know the "eye test" doesn't account for much in a sabermetrics world, but Lopez clearly brings less drama into a game than Gray does currently, and that attitude bleeds over into defense, offense, and managing. For these reasons, when the Twins enter Game 1 of a potential playoff series, Lopez is "The Guy," and Gray is number two. And the Twins should still go 2-0.

Congratulations to Lopez for making August "Pablo Month." The Twins are going to need more of his best if they hope to seal the division title in September.

What do you think? How would you rank your top Twins pitchers of August? Comment below.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good summary. Thanks.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Don't understand why Sonny isn't #1. He out pitched Pablo in every stat you listed except wins. Its not his fault the pen can't seem to hold the slim leads he often hands off to them.

[Steven Trefz]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Don't understand why Sonny isn't #1. He out pitched Pablo in every stat you listed except wins. It’s not his fault the pen can't seem to hold the slim leads he often hands off to them.

I’m a big believer that a starter’s attitude influences team success. Pablo had comparable stats and a better team record, hence the edge in a close race.

There is evidence that Gray is making a qualitative turn, and I hope he continues to do so!

 

[MABB1959]

Cleveland kept us in the race.  

[minman1982]

You have to like that starting rotation. In a five game series, starting off with Gray/Lopez for Games 1 and 2. Bring in Ryan for Game 3 and Maeda for Game 4. Kuechel is around as insurance or a long reliever, if anyone gets themselves into trouble.

Now, can the bullpen support them against a playoff caliber offense? That is is the key question.