Article: Draft Board v.4.0 (5/22)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1777-Draft-Board-v-4-0-(5-22)

[gunnarthor]

Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!

 

I am with Gunnarthor, Jeremy. Will you flesh out the Red Sox/Stewart thought? Are you suggesting that the Red Sox would make a pre-draft "deal" with Stewart that Stewart would tell the Twins to match or not draft him? He clearly has as much leverage as a kid can have under the current draft rules but it seems the height of hubris to pass up slot money at no. 4. As a high school prospect facing an alternative of three more years of free pitches and needing to remain top 4 prospect after those additional miles are put on his arm (even ignoring the risk of a football-related injury), it would shock me if he followed through on any such threat.

[greengoblinrulz]

Great jobs all you guys do on the draft stuff.......love it

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.

 

 

Thanks. I agree he should pull out all the stops to better his and his family's future. Fair play, for sure. Unfortunately for him, he does not have the Appel option of passing on the best offer and re-entering next year's draft. He'll have to sweat out three years of health during his arm's 18-20 development years while Appel only had to sweat one year with a more mature arm.

 

I still believe Appel was a little nutty, on a risk/reward basis, to turn down the Pirates best offer even though it worked out very well for him. Stewart thumbing his nose at a Twins slot offer to go to college would put him way past Appel on the risk curve. I hope for his sake no one is advising him that it would be a good idea.

 

If I am the Twins, if he is best on their board, I take him even in the face of any same or similar "threat" by Stewart.

[johnnydakota]

What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?

rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?

[clutterheart]

What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.

Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.

He could play anywhere and be an impact.

[johnnydakota]

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.

 

Isint that tampering?Why would the Red Sox even have a say in any player till its there turn to draft?

[Bctwinsfan]

2 questions.

 

1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

 

2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?

[kab21]

It creates some speculation but with the current draft penalties the Red Sox would either have to punt this year's draft and/or next year's draft to offer more money than the Twins can.

 

If the Twins want a player at #4 they will be able to offer more money if they want him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

 

There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

 

There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?

rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?

 

I saw this question posted elsewhere, did some research and answered. I don't remember exactly what I found, but it definitely wasn't as glowing as that report. I think 2nd-3rd round is what I thought.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.

Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.

He could play anywhere and be an impact.

 

I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.

[kab21]

Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

 

There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

 

There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).

 

I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

2 questions.

 

1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

 

2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?

 

The Red Sox have a pool of $6.8m. Not sure how much on their first pick. They could spend $3.6m on first pick if they are ok paying tax and going slot everywhere else. They could take 50 grand from other 9 slots and spend over $4m.

 

The position the Twins are in, with no clear-cut #4, they could probably bank a million without trading off too much talent. Are the #4 (Stewart?) and #6 (Shipley?) that different?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.

 

Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.

[kab21]

I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.

 

College bats have changed significantly in the last couple of years and yet Bryant has a .876 SLG% (a .538 isoP) and he's hitting more than a HR every other game. If you're skeptical of his bat then I'm not sure a college hitter should ever be taken in the top 5. I think Bryant is making a legitimate argument to be the BPA in the whole draft.

[kab21]

Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.

 

You're suggesting that the Red Sox would punt 1-2 other very valuable picks to take Stewart over a guy like Frazier. And the other necessary part of the equation is that the Twins would only take Stewart if he goes underslot. They might not take Stewart but if they want him there is very little chance that the Red Sox can offer him more.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm suggesting that a team could cut a deal with an agent to go later for more money. Nine of the first 15 picks last year signed for under slot. The Twins could offer Stewart, Shipley and McGuire all $3.3m and, if Moran goes 5th as expected, somebody has to say yes or they risk losing money. There's a lot of ways to go about looking at this.

[kab21]

I'm suggesting that a team could cut a deal with an agent to go later for more money. Nine of the first 15 picks last year signed for under slot. The Twins could offer Stewart, Shipley and McGuire all $3.3m and, if Moran goes 5th as expected, somebody has to say yes or they risk losing money. There's a lot of ways to go about looking at this.

 

The only way that your scenario plays out is if the Twins aren't really interested in Stewart and are more interested in going underslot. That's certainly possible but it's all dependent on the Twins not liking Stewart enough to sign him at his expected asking price (slot or at least within the +5%).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?

rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?

 

Carlos Salazar was relatively unknown up until about a year ago, had a foot injury and missed exposure time. Has a huge fastball but is still pretty raw. Shows a feel for a breaking ball, but doesn't really have a changeup or other offspeed pitch. Starter vs reliever question. Heard comps to Javy Guerra. High ceiling/low floor, makes him a risk before Round 2.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The only way that your scenario plays out is if the Twins aren't really interested in Stewart and are more interested in going underslot. That's certainly possible but it's all dependent on the Twins not liking Stewart enough to sign him at his expected asking price (slot or at least within the +5%).

 

I agree with that. I would also be shocked if the Twins ever exceed their slot. Without a clear-cut #4, the Twins have a chance to play the game a little bit.

[kab21]

I agree with that. I would also be shocked if the Twins ever exceed their slot. Without a clear-cut #4, the Twins have a chance to play the game a little bit.

 

I think Stewart is starting to emerge as the #4 in this draft especially for a team that needs pitching as badly as the Twins. Imo the only choices that make sense right now are Stewart and Shipley. Frazier and Meadows continue to slip a little and they are OF'ers. Moran is below the two pitchers. McGuire is only a choice if you are trying to go underslot. And there was a considerable faction on here that were ahead of the Manaea slide.

[Seth Stohs]

More and more, I'm intrigued by Ball. Hard-throwing, high upside (high risk) lefty. Much more interested in him than McGuire.

[2wins87]

There's no way Boston can cut a deal with Stewart that forces the Twins to pass on him.

 

Boston 6.8 million for the first 10 rounds, 3.2 million for their 1st pick. Say the Twins want to take a five percent discount on Stewart and Boston says they will offer him 4th pick slot (4.5 million). They've now gone 1.3 million over slot on their first pick, and if they want to stay within 5% of their allotment they've now got 2.6 million to spend on the rest of their picks which are worth 3.6 million. They have to average more than a 25% discount on the rest of their picks; if they don't sign one of them, they have to manage an even bigger discount on the ones that they do.

 

They are either relegated to taking a bunch of college seniors and guys who didn't expect to make it into the top 10 rounds or losing their first round pick next year. So yes, cutting a big deal with Stewart would mean that Boston is punting either this year's or next year's draft.

 

If Stewart falls to Boston it will be because the teams ahead of them all like somebody else better.

[2wins87]

I don't think I'd be upset if the Twins took Shipley. He can touch the high 90's with his heater and would probably sign slightly under slot, giving the Twins a bit of flexibility later.

 

Ball is also interesting and he's got momentum

[diehardtwinsfan]

I am with Gunnarthor, Jeremy. Will you flesh out the Red Sox/Stewart thought? Are you suggesting that the Red Sox would make a pre-draft "deal" with Stewart that Stewart would tell the Twins to match or not draft him? He clearly has as much leverage as a kid can have under the current draft rules but it seems the height of hubris to pass up slot money at no. 4. As a high school prospect facing an alternative of three more years of free pitches and needing to remain top 4 prospect after those additional miles are put on his arm (even ignoring the risk of a football-related injury), it would shock me if he followed through on any such threat.

 

I'm fairly certain that the Red Sox doing something like this would result in pretty severe penalties... not to mention that if the Twins took him, there's nothing he can do but wait 3 years and hope Boston drafts him again.

[drjim]

I think you are getting too cute here. If the Twins want Stewart they will pay him more or less slot and he will sign.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Again, its just a theory. Teams are allowed to be creative. We're getting too hung up on the numbers with Boston. I'm not saying it absolutley will happen. I'm simply suggesting it could.

 

Maybe using the Marlins would have been a better example, though it's unlikely they spend much. They have more money to spend, so, in theory, they could rearrange dollars to spend more than the picks ahead of them. They can't stop teams from picking their guy, but if an advisor knows they stand to make more money by not going they simply ask for more from that team. A guy falls due to his price tag and signs for more than slot later. Did Giolito and the Nats do something last year? Probably different cause he was hurt, but his advisor was probably fully aware the Nats would spend to a certain point, which could have easily been more than the Indians would have been willing to spend had he gone in that spot instead of Naquin.

 

I'm not suggesting anything illegal. I'm simply suggesting teams getting creative. Maybe the Red Sox can't make it work, maybe they don't want to make it work, maybe the Twins love Stewart and will give him full slot, maybe they don't and won't. At the end of the day, though, if the Twins did take him, I'm not suggesting he turns them down and enrolls in school, but he sure will leverage the situation to get the highest number possible.