Twins Fantasy Fix (7/30): Pitchers Hitting the Wall?

[Mike Rose]

With a few Minnesota pitchers enduring rough appearances recently, workload concerns could be creeping up.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

What happened to the Twins’ pitching?

A few bad starts (and a rough Jhoan Duran relief appearance) has led to a string of disappointing losses to end the week. Workload issues could be at play. Joe Ryan (more on him below) is now at 122 innings, which is getting closer to his career high of 147 set last season. Bailey Ober has set a new career high with 98 2/3 innings. Duran continues to be heavily used in critical spots, including pitching three days in a row earlier this month.

The team may decide to add Dallas Keuchel to the rotation in the near future, which would give Ryan, Ober and others a little bit of a break. In the bullpen, the addition of Dylan Floro helps, as will the return of Caleb Thielbar and eventually Brock Stewart, but a trade might still be needed to further bolster this area and give Duran more support.

I still believe in the likes of Ryan, Ober and Duran despite some recent stumbles, though it’s worth watching what the team does (or doesn’t) do to help them down the stretch. Obviously I would feel a bit better about all of them if reinforcements were added to lessen their loads just a bit.

Before getting into the rest of the regular update, I’m going to continue my look at under-the-radar fantasy options from each team. This week, I’ll run through the AL East:

Orioles: Ryan O’ Hearn (4% owned in ESPN leagues). The former Kansas City slugger is now part of a resurgent Baltimore squad. He often sits against southpaws but has managed a .301 batting average and nine home runs from his platoon role.

Rays: Pete Fairbanks (23%). Fairbanks is the team’s top closing option and has pitched well with a 1.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He missed some time due to injury, otherwise he’d likely be more widely owned.

Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (29%). The righty has been solid with a 3.79 ERA and 8-3 record this season, and he may be able to stick in the rotation even with the pending return of Hyun Jin Ryu, with Alek Manoah possibly the odd man out.

Red Sox: Trevor Story (15%). Story struggled some last season in his first year with the Red Sox, but he has a strong track record and could see his ownership climb once he makes his 2023 debut in the near future.

Yankees: Harrison Bader (13%). Another player who had his 2023 debut pushed back due to injury, Bader is batting .254 and has also chipped in 10 stolen bases, which has given him some fantasy upside.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: TBD
Kirilloff hit the injured list right before Sunday's game with a shoulder strain and it's unclear how long he'll be out. It's unfortunate timing, as Kirilloff was playing well lately, including taking home AL Player of the Week honors earlier this month. On the bright side, the Twins did activate Caleb Thielbar in a corresponding move, so at least some pitching reinforcements are coming, but now their lineup may take a hit in the short term.

Royce Lewis
Expected return: August
Lewis continues to recover from a Grade 2 oblique strain. He said he recently took batting practice and has been throwing regularly without pain. The team is understandably being cautious given his injury history, but Lewis should be able to return soon, and he may shift to the outfield with Jorge Polanco seemingly taking over at third base for now.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: August
Stewart threw a few bullpen sessions recently as he works to come back from right elbow soreness. The Twins are being cautious with the righty, though he should be able to return soon and bolster the bullpen. 

Stock Rising: Jorge Polanco
ESPN ownership: 44%
Just returning from the injured list is obviously a nice boost to his value, but Polanco also seems poised to add a new position of eligibility in some formats. Polanco started at third base in each of his first two games back from his hamstring injury, as the Twins seem committed to keeping Edouard Julien at second base given his strong play. As long as Polanco continues to see regular playing time, however, his ability to play multiple positions only furthers his appeal. The eventual return of Royce Lewis could complicate things, but Minnesota needs as much offensive firepower as it can get, so my bet would be that Lewis moves to the outfield, while Polanco sticks at third and Julien continues to play at second.

Stock Falling: Joe Ryan
ESPN ownership: 96%
I still believe in Ryan as a pitcher, but his recent performance hasn’t been great. After posting a 2.77 ERA through the end of May, the righty has a 5.53 ERA since the beginning of June. As noted above, Ryan is getting closer and closer to a new career high in innings, so a break in the form of a six-man rotation could help. He still has a strong 10.9 K/9, and if he can cut down on the home runs a little (15 allowed over his last 10 starts), Ryan has the pure stuff to turn things around. For the time being, however, his fantasy stock has taken a dip.

Prospect Spotlight: Walker Jenkins (rookie)
Jenkins was drafted fifth overall earlier this month, and he agreed to a contract with his new team on Monday. The high school outfielder is still a few years away from the majors, but his pretty left-handed swing has drawn comparisons to Larry Walker, so the payoff could be well worth the wait. Jenkins is of course an immediately attractive option in dynasty formats.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games at St. Louis (Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas)
3 Games vs Arizona  (Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen)
Flaherty and Montgomery have both been discussed as trade candidates, so it’s possible the Twins see two different pitchers in those spots. If that happens, they could be worth targeting, depending on who takes the hill. Minnesota will also see Arizona’s top two starters, though in between them is Nelson, who has a 4.97 ERA this year. He’s allowing a .286 batting average to lefties this year, though righties are hitting .285 against him, so you could stack Minnesota hitters from both sides of the plate.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Pablo Lopez is lined up to start Tuesday and Sunday. He can be a bit volatile, though his impressive strikeout numbers alone make him worth keeping locked in lineups.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Montgomery is the only lefty on the docket, but as noted above, he could be traded before this start. The Twins’ struggles against southpaws is well documented, so seeing a bunch of righties is encouraging. Julien has cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch, but he still has a strong .919 OPS across his last 10 games, and I like him a lot against opposite-handed pitching. I'd like Kirilloff this week if he was healthy but instead I'll look toward Max Kepler, who is batting .308 with a .906 OPS over his last 10 games. 

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Polanco this week, particularly to see what his role looks like. I anticipate the Twins giving him some rest days as he gets back up to speed, but as long as regular playing time is available, I think he can be productive no matter if he’s starting at second or third. 

Are you worried at all about Joe Ryan in fantasy? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[Peter]

I’m very worried about joe Ryan-teams figured him out and move to bullpen would be good/bring up Dallas kuechel. Pablo will end streak tomorrow. I think if Sonny isn’t dealt he’s due for a win. Lewis will be much needed boost in lineup as twins need him/Polanco and Kepler have got hot and need to stay that way as well both buxton and C4. Jenkins will be a stud and can’t wait for him to be with twins. On non fantasy front I’m not giving up on twins as this is ugly bump in road and season will be intense last 2 months. Games last 2 months will be playoff baseball and I still believe we will figure this out and win division.

[Doctor Gast]

I really question the mentality of this FO which often provokes injury disasters. They have finally got Martin off of SS into 2B & OF where he's excelling. But they still insist playing Julien at 2B instead of putting him where he's more suited at 1B. Therefore risking already abused Polanco off his natural position at 2B to an unnatural 3B. Therefore forcing Lewis to OF which is more hazardous to his condition. Just to force the idea that Julien is adequate at 2B. 2B is more important than they think plus risking 2 of our valuable players is unthinkable.

I'm afraid that this  burden of extra innings could be showing up on all our young pitchers and it's starting to take affect, Easing up a bit would be beneficial to them & also the older veterans. So they would be fresh coming  into post season.