Is Kepler struggling, or just being him?

[Trov]

I know there is a ton of Kepler bashing posts lately, this is not intended to be that, just a look at his numbers compared to other years.  First, most Kepler supporters thought he would have a bump in his numbers this year because the terrible shift was going away and he was going to start getting hits it stole from him.  So far that has not been proven true.  For years, people talked about how Kepler's numbers did not reflect what he "should" have hit based on is hard hit rate and things like that.  Without looking at his slash line, his average exit veloicty is above his career average at 91.  His babip is at career low, and strike outs at career high rate. His hard hit rate is career high, outside 2019 which I stop citing for offense reasons because the teams where hitting a super ball, but even if you count that year, he is close to that.  His line drive rate is career average, slightly below it, ground ball rate is below career averag and fly ball rate at career high.  His spray chart is near career norms, with oppo near career high.  

Outside the strike outs being up and walks being down, the main difference is the babip, which many thought would go up with the no shifting, but is well below career average.  Is he struggling/slumping, is he getting unlucky right now, or is he just being Max Kepler?  He actually has matched his HR numbers from last year and over 162 games, which of course he will not play, is on pace for over 30 HR.  He very well may pass 20 near 30 HR if he keeps playing.  He has only hit 20 or more 2 times, 2018 and 2019, which again I hate counting.  

We look at his numbers and say he is not the same, but really he has always been this guy, and if his babip returns to career norm he will finish the year just like he always does.  He will never be the guy we were hoping, but he is a league average guy for the most part, that plays good defense.  Can we do better, most likely, but we could do worse as well. This is not a defense of him, because I would be more than happy to try someone else. 

[weitz41]

At this point I'd say the answer is YES??? Both. The bashing imo is well earned but is multiplied by everyone struggling. So, like I said yes..There's just a lot of armchair GM's that would seem to prefer to burn down target field then be patient..Myself included at times...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes? He's under-performing but he's also aging and due to the rigidity of his swing, I haven't seen anything to indicate improvement in years.

Most people who dug into the numbers predicted little, if any, additional production due to shift limitations (not just Kepler, most LHBs). Possibly single digit batting average and a small bump in OPS. Not enough to really change his performance notably. It doesn't matter if Kepler has an OPS of .720 or .740.

I basically ignore advanced metrics with Max. He hits the ball hard, always has. His problem is where he hits the ball and how often he makes contact that is essentially 100% outs between those hard-hit balls. If Kepler is hitting 30 homers, it's easy to tolerate all that ****** contact. If he's hitting 16 home runs, he's not a good hitter.

He has hit 30 home runs exactly once. He won't play center field. He's getting older. He's not only probably never going to be good again, he's more likely to start being bad, possibly right now.

[chpettit19]

There's just no real upside in Max, and that's my biggest problem with continuing to run him out there. As @Brock Beauchamp said, when you really dig into his numbers he's not your typical "hits the ball hard, but has bad babip numbers" upside hitter. The FO has to be able to see that as well, but they seem to be refusing to accept it. I don't get what they see in him beyond his glove.

This is who Max is, and if the rest of the team were rolling, and he was hitting 8th while providing gold glove type defense, you can live with it. When you have him hitting 5th, you can't. If you're relying on Max to be one of your 5 best hitters, you're doomed. And this offense has been showing it all year.

I like Max, I appreciate what he's done for the Twins, and I have no idea how sustainable Wallner's performance is at the big league level, but it's time to find out. Max has been a solid major league player for a long time with this team. But he's no longer what this team needs.

[Trov]

23 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yes? He's under-performing but he's also aging and due to the rigidity of his swing, I haven't seen anything to indicate improvement in years.

Most people who dug into the numbers predicted little, if any, additional production due to shift limitations (not just Kepler, most LHBs). Possibly single digit batting average and a small bump in OPS. Not enough to really change his performance notably. It doesn't matter if Kepler has an OPS of .720 or .740.

I basically ignore advanced metrics with Max. He hits the ball hard, always has. His problem is where he hits the ball and how often he makes contact that is essentially 100% outs between those hard-hit balls. If Kepler is hitting 30 homers, it's easy to tolerate all that ****** contact. If he's hitting 16 home runs, he's not a good hitter.

He has hit 30 home runs exactly once. He won't play center field. He's getting older. He's not only probably never going to be good again, he's more likely to start being bad, possibly right now.

My main point was, his offense is basically the same as it always has.  I agree with the shift comment, I never expected he would have some huge boost, I made many comments about that.  I have long been someone to point out that Max is basically the exception to the rule when it comes to hard contact and the like.  He is basically hitting as he always has, with a lower BABIP than he normally does, and that is sad because his BABIP is always below what should be expected.  I do not think his offense has got any worse, it was always this way is my point. 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

My main point was, his offense is basically the same as it always has.  I agree with the shift comment, I never expected he would have some huge boost, I made many comments about that.  I have long been someone to point out that Max is basically the exception to the rule when it comes to hard contact and the like.  He is basically hitting as he always has, with a lower BABIP than he normally does, and that is sad because his BABIP is always below what should be expected.  I do not think his offense has got any worse, it was always this way is my point. 

If you compare 2017 2022, similar number of game, his strike out number is lower last year but in other matters he did not do as well as in 2017..

Some thing has changed.

He hates playing CF and his numbers show it, but his number is right field are some of his best.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 6/22/2023 at 7:01 AM, chpettit19 said:

There's just no real upside in Max, and that's my biggest problem with continuing to run him out there. As @Brock Beauchamp said, when you really dig into his numbers he's not your typical "hits the ball hard, but has bad babip numbers" upside hitter. The FO has to be able to see that as well, but they seem to be refusing to accept it. I don't get what they see in him beyond his glove.

This is who Max is, and if the rest of the team were rolling, and he was hitting 8th while providing gold glove type defense, you can live with it. When you have him hitting 5th, you can't. If you're relying on Max to be one of your 5 best hitters, you're doomed. And this offense has been showing it all year.

I like Max, I appreciate what he's done for the Twins, and I have no idea how sustainable Wallner's performance is at the big league level, but it's time to find out. Max has been a solid major league player for a long time with this team. But he's no longer what this team needs.

Agreed. Kepler is what he's been outside of 2019 - a good defensive OF who is a well below average hitter for a corner OF (only below avg. for the league as a whole, but corner OFs need to be above average hitters because it's an offense first position).  He could have a role a on a contending team as a 4th OF but he won't play CF. I'd even be ok with him on the Twins if we didn't have Gallo and he was playing 2-3 times a week tops. 

Kepler and Galo are below average players and are redundant. Lose at least one of them, preferably both. Kep Kepler if you only lose one.  Bring up Wallner to give his bat a shot. This team needs offense more than defense from the corner OFs. It's past time to find out if Wallner can help provide that missing offense. 

[Major League Ready]

He had a moment (the 2019 season) where he was great.  The moment is gone.  He is never going to be a difference make so at some point we will get Walner up here and see if he can be an impact player.   My guess is the FO wants to move on.  However, they are not going to just DFA him this early in the season.  I think this is partially out of respect for a longtime member of the organization and partially because of what happened last year.  

[lake_guy]

Whenever discussion about how bad Kepler has become I think back to that press conference announcing his new contract.  Remember when he said something to the the effect he would play for free?  And Levine's facial reaction was priceless...what did I just do?  lol

Crazy how that one year of the juiced ball just keeps on giving.