Prospect Retrospective: Jordan Balazovic

[Cody Christie]

Jordan Balazovic’s path to the big leagues included some tumultuous moments, and now he can showcase his skills at baseball’s highest level. Let’s review his professional career, including the ups and downs.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

The Twins drafted Jordan Balazovic in the fifth round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of secondary school in Canada. Minnesota identified plenty of big-league talent in that draft, and Balazovic is the latest from that class to make his debut. Balazovic was seen as a projectable starter at the time of the draft because of his body type and pitch mix. Scouting high school players from cold weather climates can be challenging, but the Twins saw enough in Balazovic to sign him for $515,000. 

He spent his first two professional seasons pitching for the GCL Twins, making 18 appearances (72 1/3 innings). He posted a 3.61 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a 45-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. During the 2016 season, he never faced a batter younger than himself, and he faced older batters in 80% of his plate appearances in 2017. While his numbers don’t stand out, he added strength to his frame to help him move up the organizational ladder.  

Balazovic got his first taste of full-season ball during the 2018 season when the Twins assigned him to Cedar Rapids, the organization’s Low-A affiliate at the time. He made 12 appearances (11 starts) and posted a 3.94 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 61 2/3 innings. His most significant improvement was in his strikeout rate. He posted a 5.6 K/9 in the rookie leagues, but that total jumped to 11.4 K/9 in his first season with the Kernels. He also continued to be young for the level, as he was 2.4 years younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League. 

In the 2019 season, Balazovic put himself on the prospect map, including being named the Twins’ representative in the Futures Game. He began the year in Cedar Rapids and dominated hitters by limiting them to five earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with 14.4 K/9. He continued his strong pitching performance after being promoted to High-A. In Fort Myers, he posted a 2.84 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and 11.8 K/9 in 73 innings. Following the season, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline included him in the backend of their top-100 prospect lists. 

After the pandemic, the Twins added Balazovic to the 40-man roster and sent him to Double-A. His start to the 2021 season was delayed until June because of a back issue. Across 20 starts (97 innings), he combined for a 3.62 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He allowed more hits per nine (9.1 H/9), his highest rate since rookie ball, but he was still young for his level, with nearly 82% of his plate appearances coming versus older batters. His fastball averaged 96 mph, and there was hope he’d still develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter at the big-league level. 

Balazovic struggled with his on-field performance for the first time in his career during the 2022 season. A knee injury during the spring kept him from pitching until May. He never seemed to put it all together after the injury, but the team continued to use him regularly. With the Saints, he pitched 70 2/3 innings while allowing 58 earned runs (7.39 ERA) with a 1.94 WHIP. His average fastball velocity also dipped to 94 mph. During September, Balazovic had his best month of the season. He posted a 3.43 ERA in five starts with 30 strikeouts and ten walks in 21 innings. The Twins hoped it was a sign of bigger things to come for Balazovic in 2023. 

Entering this season, Balazovic reported early to Twins camp to get work in before the scheduled reporting date. However, his early arrival led to an altercation. On the evening before the players reported, he went to a local bar, and someone punched him in the face. He broke his jaw, requiring surgery and an overnight hospital stay. In interviews, he told reporters that he didn’t know the person and he didn’t throw a punch of his own. It was shaping up to be an important spring for Balazovic, and this incident put him behind at the season’s start.

The Twins were clearly frustrated with the Balazovic situation, making him the first cut during spring training. At Triple-A, he began the year as a reliever, with the team using him sparingly as a spot starter. In 35 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.79 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.3 K/9. His performance wasn’t pushing him to the big-league level, but he was on the 40-man roster, and the Twins needed a reliever. Balazovic’s MLB debut showcased what he can do out of the bullpen with 3 2/3 scoreless innings while throwing a lot of strikes. 

It will be interesting to see how Balazovic adjusts to a bullpen role. He used his fastball and curveball over 32% of the time in his debut. His slider is another option, but he didn’t get a lot of swings and misses. It might be best for him to focus on those three pitches and ditch his changeup since that pitch gets hit the hardest. Few pitchers follow a linear development path, and Balazovic has dealt with some issues on the way to his debut. However, he can provide future value for the Twins.

How do you view Balazovic at this point in his career? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[jkcarew]

One pitch gets hit hard. One pitch doesn’t get whiffs…so it’s likely to get hit hard at the major league level soon enough. Add to that, his challenges with controlling his pitches.

It that’s the case, we have…a relief pitcher. Someone who can potentially control two good pitches. Disappointing, but probably the most realistic ceiling at this point. And if he can be a good one…

[bighat]

Meanwhile Simeon Woods Richardson is 0-5 with a 7.47 ERA over 11 starts in St. Paul. He's got just 40 strikeouts in 47 innings of work. 

Austin Martin way down in Fort Meyers on a rehab assignment and has just 6 ABs on the year. 

Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have proven they can play major league baseball, but it doesn't look like they are on the path to stardom - in fact it's been a struggle for them to hang on to the jobs that have been handed to them for several reasons.

90% of top ranked, eye-catching prospects don't deliver as advertised. It's not just Twins prospects, either (although sometimes it sure feels that way). 

Maybe it's time to appreciate Miguel Sano a bit more. The guy was a big name prospect who showed up in the majors and hit 25, 28, 30, and 34 HRs. Played a solid 3rd base and even made some spectacular plays, switched to 1st base and was very serviceable. Made an All-Star team. All while getting torn to shreds by lots of Strib and TD fans regularly. 

[Brandon]

I think a solid reliever is his floor.  He still has a high mid nineties fastball.  While it may take a few more years to fully develop he could be a number 3-5 starter if I had to guess with improved control, a better slider and serviceable/ show me change up.  

[TwinsDr2021]

The pipeline continues to give the Twins relativity effective relief pitchers. Hopefully, Balazovic ends up being something between Jax and Duran.

[DocBauer]

I have accepted that Balazovic is going to be a pen option for this season due to need, based on injury and some poor performances. And I'm now OK with that despite initially believing he should continue his "recovery" path in 2023 getting ready for 2024. I believe he does have the kind of stuff that could potentially really play up in the pen. And while that's disappointing based on past projections, being a really good bullpen arm is still an important role.

But I still believe he should head in to 2024 with the idea of being a starter. I think there's still a solid rotation arm there if allowed to continue developing his stuff.

But if he ends up as a really good pen arm, I won't be disappointed.