Should the Twins Have Signed a Reliever in Free Agency?

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

If you look back to the offseason, you'd find that I was an advocate for signing multiple relief arms. My approach is that the more darts you throw against the wall, the more likelihood for bullseyes. 

But I don't think it's accurate to associate a lack of MLB signings with "ignoring the pen." As analytical as the front office is, it's hard for me to imagine them ignoring anything. 

For what it's worth, the FO may have...

• Looked at Duran and thought they had a closer. For the most part, they've been right. 
• Looked at Lopez and thought they had their backup closer/8th inning guy. For the most part, they've been right. 
• Looked at Jax and thought they had a high leverage righty. For the most part, they've been wrong. 
• Looked at Thielbar and thought they had a high leverage lefty. He's been hurt, so in that sense they've been wrong. 
• Looked at Pagan and thought he was worth $3.5 million, based on how he pitched the last part of last season and thinking they could fix other issues. For the most part, they've been right, with a couple notable blowups. 
• Looked at Alcala and thought that with health, he would develop into a contributor. Not so much.
• And Moran. Not so much. 
• Looked at the starters and their plan for improving the rotation and determined they'd need about 20 percent fewer innings from the bullpen. For the most part, they've been right. 

The cumulative of those may have led to not pursuing any MLB pitchers, but those are all "decisions," not a case of "ignoring" the bullpen.

Similarly, for all we know they made an offer to Robertson that wasn't acceptable. And to Ottavino. And to Fulmer. And to whoever your favorites were. Again, we don't know if any of those happened, but if so, those are decisions on the max they want to give a reliever, not a case of "ignoring" the bullpen.

If you want to say it was a mistake to not offer one or two guys more, enough to sign them, I'm fine with that. I might even agree with you, though I don't remember many, if any, signings where I thought, "Wow, I wish the Twins would have offered more than that." That speaks to the volatility of relievers that others have referenced. 

 What we know is that they didn't sign any MLB relievers (other than tendering Pagan). What we don't know is the decision-making process. As is generally the case with the front office, we just don't know enough of what happened, so it seems overly simplistic to equate a lack of MLB signings with "ignoring." 

I'm more or less "there is no try, there is only do or not do" kind of guy.

Besides which, Falvey himself said last winter the pen wasn't a "priority." 

So I'm pretty comfortable with "ignore." 

Doesn't really matter the specifics, in any case. I think it was a mistake not to add, whatever the thought process or reasons.

[jorgenswest]

On 5/20/2023 at 7:59 AM, dxpavelka said:

I know, right?  Hard to imagine where we'd be without Solano's 5 RBI.

He is third of the Twins position players in WPA.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He is third of the Twins position players in WPA.

Advanced metrics are an excellent way of predicting the past.  FIVE RBI is actual production.  Or lack thereof.

 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Advanced metrics are an excellent way of predicting the past.  FIVE RBI is actual production.  Or lack thereof.

 

Both RBIs and WPA similarly describe the past neither. They both are heavily based on opportunity. Neither is a predictor of the future.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Both RBIs and WPA similarly describe the past neither. They both are heavily based on opportunity. Neither is a predictor of the future.

Say what you want but 5 RBIs in 106 plate appearances describes a lack of production.  Yes, opportunity may factor in but to call it something other than a lack of production is foolhardy.

 

[jorgenswest]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Say what you want but 5 RBIs in 106 plate appearances describes a lack of production.  Yes, opportunity may factor in but to call it something other than a lack of production is foolhardy.

 

My apologies for derailing this thread.

Solano’s slash stats with runners in scoring position this year.

438/591/563 for an OPS of 1153. If you change it to runners on it is 1104. I believe BR is up to date through yesterday.

He has had few opportunities with runners in scoring position and has done very well when those opportunities have been presented. 

Like RBIs it means nothing for the future at this sample.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

My apologies for derailing this thread.

Solano’s slash stats with runners in scoring position this year.

438/591/563 for an OPS of 1153. If you change it to runners on it is 1104. I believe BR is up to date through yesterday.

He has had few opportunities with runners in scoring position and has done very well when those opportunities have been presented. 

Like RBIs it means nothing for the future at this sample.

FIVE

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He is third of the Twins position players in WPA.

Can't make soup out of WPA.