Twins Fantasy Fix (5/8): Welcome back, Alex!

[Mike Rose]

The Twins made some big moves with a pair of young hitters and have also seen some rotation shakeups. Here’s a closer look at what it means from a fantasy perspective.

Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

 

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The big news this past week was the team’s decision to essentially replace Trevor Larnach with Alex Kirilloff. After a hot start, Larnach had fallen into a slump, and coupled with Kirilloff’s strong play in the minors, the move made sense. 

We’ll take a closer look at Larnach below, but for Kirilloff, this is a big opportunity. The biggest issue for the 25-year-old has been health, as he’s played just 104 total games at the MLB level the last two years. Kirilloff certainly has the talent to be a strong fantasy contributor if he can stay on the field.

Let’s look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

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Twins Injury Updates
Tyler Mahle
Expected return: TBD
Woof. The Twins’ trade for Mahle at last year’s deadline has not gone as expected, as the righty has missed significant time with injuries since joining the club and is now on the 60-day IL. Depending on your league settings, he could be stashed in an IL spot, but it’s also understandable to just cut Mahle at this point and move on. The silver lining here is that with Mahle out, along with Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober should have a chance to take off (more on him below). The same is true for Louie Varland to some extent, but he’s more likely to be bounced from the rotation when Maeda is able to return. Ober’s starting spot looks more secure.

Kenta Maeda
Expected return: This month
Speaking of Maeda, he’s been on the IL since April 29 with a right triceps strain. The righty should be able to return sometime this month, and with Mahle also out, it seems likely that the team will slot Maeda back in as the No. 5 starter, bumping Varland. If it came down to just Ober and Maeda for a spot, the Twins would likely stick with the former, and it’s possible that they do that with Varland and move Maeda to a long-relief role. Still, the smart money is probably on Varland returning to Triple-A and Maeda getting another shot at starting when healthy. Fantasy managers should keep their expectations tempered, however, as Maeda hasn’t looked great yet this season.

Caleb Thielbar
Expected return: TBD
Thielbar hit the 15-day IL on Friday with a right oblique strain and it remains to be seen how long he’ll be out. This is a bigger blow to the Twins than fantasy players, as Thielber serves as the team’s top lefty out of the bullpen but he’s not regularly seeing save opportunities. Jovani Moran probably gets a slight bump here, but he’s also mostly off the fantasy radar. If anything, a little more responsibility may fall on Minnesota’s top two relievers from a fantasy perspective: Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez.

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Twins Fantasy Player Trends
Stock Rising: Bailey Ober
ESPN ownership: 13%
I could have gone Kirilloff here, but with him just joining the team Saturday, I’ll wait at least a week to see how things shake out there. For Ober, opportunity presented itself a little sooner, and he’s certainly made the most of it. He’s made three starts for the Twins and has allowed only two earned runs across 18 1/3 innings with 16 strikeouts.

Ober likely won’t stay quite this good, but it doesn’t entirely seem like a fluke, as he’s had success in the majors before and also had an impressive spring training leading into this season. As noted above, Mahle’s injury coupled with Maeda being out should strengthen Ober’s hold on a rotation spot, and with the way he’s pitching, it would be surprising to see the Twins move him to the bullpen or Triple-A. Ober is at worst a good streaming option at the moment, and in deeper formats, you could definitely grab and hold.

Stock Falling: Trevor Larnach
ESPN ownership: 3%
Earlier this season, I had Larnach in the “stock rising” section, noting that he looked like a key offensive piece. Things can change quickly in baseball. Larnach is now in Triple-A given his struggles plus the return of Kirilloff. In single-season fantasy formats, this obviously tanks his value, though he’ll likely be back up at some point. In dynasty formats, this also puts a dent in Larnach’s profile, as it’s a bit concerning to see a 26-year-old go in the wrong direction. The talent and pedigree are still there for Larnach to be a good MLB player, but the Twins also have the likes of Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, and Royce Lewis in the system, so Larnach will have to play well to earn his spot moving forward.

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Prospect Spotlight
Royce Lewis (Current team: AA-Witchita)
Lewis has been playing in Florida Complex League games as he continues to rehab from ACL surgery. The youngster has only played a few innings at a time with some rest in between appearances, but he'll begin a rehab assignment with AA-Witchita this week and then possibly make his full return next month.

Lewis demonstrated last year just what kind of impact he can have, albeit in a small sample size. His return to health will be interesting to watch, as the Twins will have to decide how to use him. Lewis could play center field in place of Michael A. Taylor, who hasn’t done much with the bat but does provide good defense at the position. Shortstop is another possibility, but even with Carlos Correa struggling, he should be locked in there. That leaves third base as the most likely landing spot. With Jose Miranda struggling as well in the early going, he could be the one on the hot seat when Lewis is ready to return.

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Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games vs Padres (Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Yu Darvish)
3 Games vs Cubs (Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, Marcus Stroman)
The Twins will return home for a pair of unfamiliar opponents. Both the Padres and Cubs are hovering around .500. Despite San Diego’s high-end talent, Chicago actually looks like the tougher matchup on paper right now, as their 3.44 team ERA is fourth in the league, right behind the Twins. Offensively, the Cubs are ninth in runs scored. Meanwhile, the Padres are 14th in team ERA and 19th in runs scored.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Louie Varland sets up for two starts this week and he looks like a risky proposition, albeit with upside. The youngster has 14 strikeouts in just 10 2/3 innings this season, but he’s also given up four home runs and has a 5.91 ERA. Obviously, it’s a small sample size, and your willingness to use Varland should depend on how confident you are that he’ll be able to keep the ball in the ballpark while still missing plenty of bats. As noted above, Chicago has been the tougher matchup of the two teams for opposing pitchers.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Of all the matchups in the coming week, I’m probably targeting the first one against Wacha. His 5.46 ERA is the highest of any of the six scheduled starters. He also has a 1.15 HR/9 this season and a 1.65 mark over the past three years, so Minnesota hitters may be able to get to him with the long ball. Christian Vasquez is 5-for-9 in his career against Wacha, while Max Kepler is 3-for-10 with two doubles and a home run.

I’m not necessarily running away from the remaining matchups during the week, though Stroman has been pretty good with a 2.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. You could certainly consider Minnesota stacks against any of these starters as slight contrarian plays. Smyly is the lone southpaw on the slate, and Donovan Solano is 4-for-12 lifetime against him. You could also consider the righty bats of Byron Buxton and Correa (he has to get going eventually, right?) if you want to go all in on the right-left split.

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Kirilloff this week. After joining the team Saturday, he made a pinch-hit appearance that day, and as of writing this, he’s set for his first start of the year Sunday. It would seem that he’ll take over as the regular first baseman in the near future, though the Twins may ease him back into action. With five righties on the slate this week, things line up favorably for Kirilloff, but you’ll, of course, want to check that he’s actually in the lineup before deploying him in daily formats. In weekly formats, it may be best to wait this week out to see how often he plays and how he looks at the plate.

What are your expectations for Kirilloff as a fantasy asset the rest of the way? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on the matchups this week.

 

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[AdoreAdorno]

Thielbar is a strong play in holds and saves+holds leagues. I'm stashing him on the IL in those leagues. 

[Otwins]

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I like Kiriloff just not sure about a big fantasy impact.  He should have a decent average with solid power but no steals and the counting stats in the Twins lineup are well below average.

 

 

 

[Mike Rose]

13 hours ago, AdoreAdorno said:

Thielbar is a strong play in holds and saves+holds leagues. I'm stashing him on the IL in those leagues. 

That’s a good point. He’s certainly droppable if you need to, and in a lot of leagues he’s not even owned right now, but a stash makes sense in some formats. 

[Hubie29]

Kiriloff:  another MEDIOCRE AT BEST bat in an already terribly weak lineup.  Things just don't look like they are going to get any better until we make a few trades or bring up the wonder kids from the minors. We have to quit relying on the same old same old!