Why have the Twins been dumping so much salary and players the last couple years?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except most players do not want to play for a mid market penny pinching losing team on a short or resonible contract... so if your going to get quality players , you have to pay to play.

 

If you throw good offers at Marcum, Dempster, and Saunders, you'll get one of them.

 

Of course, it hinges on offering more money than everyone else. The bottom line is more important than playing in Fenway Park to most of these guys. You won't get every free agent, but you'll get some of them.

 

What you can't do is offer Ryan Dempster a one year, $6m deal and then complain that nobody wants to come to Minnesota. I'm not saying that the team does that with every player but there is some pretty solid evidence that they've pulled that trick in the past.

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree on Grienke, if you think he's a top 30 pitcher for the next 5 years, this team can afford him (even if the last 2-3 years are bad). Other than mauer, they have zero legit salaries on this roster the next 5 years. Willingham maybe, but even that is for 1 more year......

 

I don't get why people keep saying they can't afford Greinke. This year, Morneau and Blackburn come off, and they get $25MMM more in revenue. Heck, that revenue increase alone pays Greinke's entire salary for 8 years.......and you still are banking more than $15MM a year in savings when Justin and Nick are gone. There is/was plenty of money to spend big this year.

 

Imagine having a healthy Greinke in this rotation instead of Pelfrey.....I'm not saying that I expect them to keep this up, but if you replace your worst pitcher with a guy that would be your best pitcher, that's got to be worth 5-10 wins over the season. What is that worht this year or next year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree on Grienke, if you think he's a top 30 pitcher for the next 5 years, this team can afford him (even if the last 2-3 years are bad).

 

There's simply no reason to think that. Right now, here are the highest paid starting pitchers who are signed with teams whose farm systems they didn't play for:

 

Johan Santana

CC Sabathia

Cliff Lee

Roy Halladay

Carlos Zambrano

Barry Zito

 

There's a hell of a lot of failure there and not a lot of success. Sure, Greinke might be great for four years and then taper off.

 

But chances are he'll be great for two, good for two more, and then descend into pretty bad. The Twins can't afford to be saddled with that kind of risk.

[drjim]

Let's see one more year of international signings with Ryan before judging, but I fear he's bringing his frugal ways there also.....

 

Based on what? They signed a top 5 bonus and more or less spent their cap. What more do you want?

[Mike Sixel]

Why not? What else will they do with the money? Even if he's bad, what else will they be spending the money on?

[Mike Sixel]

Based on what? They signed a top 5 bonus and more or less spent their cap. What more do you want?

 

Good point. I keep forgetting there is a cap now.

[drjim]

There's simply no reason to think that. Right now, here are the highest paid starting pitchers who are signed with teams whose farm systems they didn't play for:

 

Johan Santana

CC Sabathia

Cliff Lee

Roy Halladay

Carlos Zambrano

Barry Zito

 

There's a hell of a lot of failure there and not a lot of success. Sure, Greinke might be great for four years and then taper off.

 

But chances are he'll be great for two, good for two more, and then descend into p

retty bad. The Twins can't afford to be saddled with that kind of risk.

 

Plus you would lock up almost 50% of your payroll in two guys for the next 6 years. Sure you can fit it for a couple of years but the result is no flexibility going forward. And if Greinke falls off or gets hurt you are really screwed. That is a lot of risk for the Twins to take on.

[kab21]

Let's see one more year of international signings with Ryan before judging, but I fear he's bringing his frugal ways there also.....

 

I think the new signing pools guarantee that teams will spend quite a bit of money internationally. There is only so much money to go around and somebody has to sign the top int'l prospects. Perhaps Ryan trades some of it but I think it will the Twins will be top ten in money spent at the end of the day.

[TheLeviathan]

Plus you would lock up almost 50% of your payroll in two guys for the next 6 years. Sure you can fit it for a couple of years but the result is no flexibility going forward. And if Greinke falls off or gets hurt you are really screwed. That is a lot of risk for the Twins to take on.

 

This team has ridiculous amounts of flexibility. The issue is will Ryan back off the rigid stance he has had his entire career about FA - You could argue this team will have room enough for TWO Grienke salaries next year and beyond. That doesnt mean you do it but we need to be a LOT more willing to consider deals like that to augment our future. And even more so willing to consider 3/40 deals that have risk. We can't even say with assurance that we would even consider that.

[Mike Sixel]

Again, how are you screwed? 100% of Greinke's salary would have been paid for by new revenue, and you still have more than $15MM coming off the books after this year, and $7Mm the next, and they are well below what they could spend.

 

How is the flexibility hurt at all, if they sign Greinke?

 

You left Darvish off your list of FA pitchers.....he was a FA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And even more so willing to consider 3/40 deals that have risk. We can't even say with assurance that we would even consider that.

 

This is the area in which the Twins should be playing, in my opinion. Enough money to get a quality player but not so much money that you hamstring your payroll for 4+ years.

[jun]

So you prefer flame throwing peanuts like Hoey right? Btw, where is this Hoey guy now?

[nicksaviking]

Anyone who thinks Smith is the worst GM ever hasn't paid attention to some of the true disasters of baseball over the years.

 

His drafts were a mixed bag. He hit on Hicks and Gibson

 

I think that's TBD. Playing Devils advocate he could have chosen Mike Trout or Tyler Skaggs over Gibson. Or he could have drafted all three of them had he let Santana leave as a free agent instead of trading him for a grab bag.

 

I agree with your points, although I always find it humorously convenient that the "right" way to build a team just so happens to be the least costly.

 

Ryan's reliance on the youngsters is going to likely force us to withhold our opinions on the thriftyness of the Pohlads for a half decade. 2019-2021 will be when the new batch of young Twins will be hitting free agency, though hopefully the Twins will be able to sign them to extensions previous to that. Will they resign Sano or Buxton if they develop into superstars? Will they pay Alex Myers if he's the real deal even though his agent is Scott Boras and ace pitchers will all be commanding +$200M contracts by then?

 

If the Twins way is to build through the farm, but then let the farm hands walk when they enter their prime instead of fielding a top 10 payroll, then we shall reserve the right to riot. I do fear the Twins are planning for the future using 2013 as the template for player contracts, simply because they are never at the front of these movements. They need to assume these guys will command +$200M contracts if they pan out. After all, why else would they be charging us 2020 beer prices at Target Field today?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Again, how are you screwed? 100% of Greinke's salary would have been paid for by new revenue, and you still have more than $15MM coming off the books after this year, and $7Mm the next, and they are well below what they could spend.

 

How is the flexibility hurt at all, if they sign Greinke?

 

You left Darvish off your list of FA pitchers.....he was a FA.

 

Darvish is only making $9.5m this season. He's not on the highest paid per year list.

 

How is payroll flexibility not hurt by signing Greinke? You're dedicating $45m on two players through most of this decade. Even under the best of financial circumstances, that is 1/3rd of payroll on two guys.

 

Greinke doesn't magically go away in 3 years. That contract sticks around through the entire decade and if you take that kind of risk on a starting pitcher, there's a good chance you spend the end of the decade jettisoning guys like Sano, Rosario, Meyer, or Buxton because you can't afford Mauer, Greinke, and two other star players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think that's TBD. Playing Devils advocate he could have chosen Mike Trout or Tyler Skaggs over Gibson. Or he could have drafted all three of them had he let Santana leave as a free agent instead of trading him for a grab bag.

 

Sure, a lot could still go wrong with those guys but at this point, I think it's pretty hard to complain about those choices. Both guys have been good all the way through the minors and should be productive Major League players in the next 12 months.

[Mike Sixel]

While the other 24 guys are making close to the minimum, and you are banking like $20-50MM per year over the next several years, I'd think it is pretty self evident they can afford that money.

 

Not one infielder or OFer will be making even $1MM per year, other than mauer, after 2014. Not one, unless Plouffe succeeds, and even then, he'll be lucky to be over $4MM. Only Diamond is likely to be making more than $3-4MM per year among all the pitchers for the next 3-6 years.

 

There is plenty of flexibility, and plenty of money saved up to buy players. Explain to me where the extra $25MM is going for the next 6 years, other than the Pohlads' pockets.

[Mike Sixel]

Let alone the money coming off the books this year, and the money coming off the books with Blackburn, Morneau, and Willingham the following year. Even keeping the payroll flat+$25MM, they would have $25MM after signing Grienke to buy other players if they want, like anyone thinks they will.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

While the other 24 guys are making close to the minimum, and you are banking like $20-50MM per year over the next several years, I'd think it is pretty self evident they can afford that money.

 

Not one infielder or OFer will be making even $1MM per year, other than mauer, after 2014. Not one, unless Plouffe succeeds, and even then, he'll be lucky to be over $4MM. Only Diamond is likely to be making more than $3-4MM per year among all the pitchers for the next 3-6 years.

 

There is plenty of flexibility, and plenty of money saved up to buy players. Explain to me where the extra $25MM is going for the next 6 years, other than the Pohlads' pockets.

 

Right now, it has no impact.

 

In 2016, it's much harder to say what kind of impact it might have. Greinke could be Barry Zito at that point, Mauer could be using a walker to get around, and the Twins could be on their way to throwing away 40% of their payroll for 1-2 seasons.

 

Even if the Twins want a guy like Greinke, 2013 was not the season to do it. Greinke adds a handful of wins, which still puts the Twins somewhere in the "mediocre" range. You're throwing away the best seasons of a top-shelf pitcher on a team that isn't ready to compete in any way, shape, or form. By the time the Twins have enough pieces to make a run, there's a good chance that Greinke is on the decline (as evidenced by that pretty awful list of free agent pitchers who declined pretty rapidly after age 30).

[bird]

Let's see one more year of international signings with Ryan before judging, but I fear he's bringing his frugal ways there also.....

 

Last year, the Twins signed the #7 and #22 ranked international prospects, Minier and Silva. They spent their entire considerable signing allottment. They signed the best pitching prospect in Australia, shelling out a half million.

 

What more do you want?

 

And, to CMath's point, why do you attribute so much weight to the GM's influence in drafting and Int. signings? They trust their people. All friggin' five dozen of them involved in scouting, drafting, and development! They don't even have full control over the budget. The GM just isn't nearly as influencial in these decisions as you must think.

 

This organization isn't frugal. They just spend differently than many fans would like, avoiding FA bidding wars and stupid decisions ( with some exceptions of course). If they were so intent on pocketing all the revenue, they'd have a crappy farm system, like, say, Detroit's. Or Chicago's.

 

In the last draft analysis I read, which was a Top 220 prospect list, the Twins had EIGHT prospects in the top 92. How many in this same range for Detroit and Chicago combined? ZERO. Not one! Think about that for a minute.

 

Why is their system so much better than any of their Central Division rival's? It's because they CHOOSE to invest their resources there rather than in the FA market. And they spend lots, but spend it wisely. And they have an exceptional organization reporting up to the GM.

[drjim]

While the other 24 guys are making close to the minimum, and you are banking like $20-50MM per year over the next several years, I'd think it is pretty self evident they can afford that money.

 

Not one infielder or OFer will be making even $1MM per year, other than mauer, after 2014. Not one, unless Plouffe succeeds, and even then, he'll be lucky to be over $4MM. Only Diamond is likely to be making more than $3-4MM per year among all the pitchers for the next 3-6 years.

 

There is plenty of flexibility, and plenty of money saved up to buy players. Explain to me where the extra $25MM is going for the next 6 years, other than the Pohlads' pockets.

 

Again you are correct that the next couple of years would be ok. But players are going to start entering arb and they may eant to acquire other players through trade or free agency.

 

You can fit those two in but it should be evident that doing so will take away flexibility down the road. Ideally at the time when the Twins are ready to compete and may be in a position they want to extend a guy or sign a missing piece.

[drjim]

This team has ridiculous amounts of flexibility. The issue is will Ryan back off the rigid stance he has had his entire career about FA - You could argue this team will have room enough for TWO Grienke salaries next year and beyond. That doesnt mean you do it but we need to be a LOT more willing to consider deals like that to augment our future. And even more so willing to consider 3/40 deals that have risk. We can't even say with assurance that we would even consider that.

 

I generally agree on 3/40 contracts. I think a fair argument can be made that until this past offseason the opportunity didn't really exist because of limited total payroll before Target Field and jigh layrolls since -the though Willingham is close to that number.

 

I also am not sure who would have been worth that this offseason especially considering the state of the roster. Maybe Dempster but it would have taken much more.

[Guest USAFChief]

Last year, the Twins signed the #7 and #22 ranked international prospects, Minier and Silva. They spent their entire considerable signing allottment. They signed the best pitching prospect in Australia, shelling out a half million.

 

.

Unless I'm mistaken, their "entire considerable signing allotment" was $2.9M...about the cost of Jamie Carroll. Call me crazy, but I don't think that's evidence that they "spend lots," nor that "this organization isn't frugal." I also don't consider the Twins currently having higher rated farm systems than Chicago or Detroit as evidence they "aren't frugal." I doubt the Twins are spending more money on their minor leagues than either of those teams...certainly not an amount anywhere near the difference in major league payrolls.

[Mike Sixel]

I did not say 1 thing about the GM and the drafts in this thread, and I've already acknowledged I was wrong about international signings.....

 

What flexibility are they taking away in the future? You all keep typing that, but where is the money going that would tie up flexbility?

 

Correia, gone. Pelfrey, gone. Blackburn, gone. Morneau, gone. Willingham, gone. That leaves Mauer and Perkins as the only players making money. Maybe Plouffe is up for money, maybe, but if Sano is up, is Plouffe on teh roster? Dozier, not likely. Really, you keep typing that the money won't be there, but outside Mauer, they will be spending at or near the league minimum on more than 15 players, maybe more, for the next 5 years.

 

If you assume a $120MM payroll is real, and it should be if $25MM more is coming in revenue, that leave 97MM outside mauer. If you have 15 guys making around a million on average, that leaves 72MM to sign the other players on teh roster. That's a lot of payroll flexibility.

 

Plus, they are pocketing tens of millions this year and the next couple of years to use for signing bonuses or whatever.....

 

Can someone explain to me what flexibility they lose if they have two guys making $48MM, if 15 others are making almost nothing?

 

Look at this roster........take off Morneau, Blackburn, Willingham, and Doumit.....which is what is happening in the next 18 months. Are you all saying those salaries are not enough for flexibility, let alone the $20MM they could add (without even considering the $25MM in new revenue) and still have the payroll be around $100MM?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I did not say 1 thing about the GM and the drafts in this thread, and I've already acknowledged I was wrong about international signings.....

 

What flexibility are they taking away in the future? You all keep typing that, but where is the money going that would tie up flexbility?

 

Correia, gone. Pelfrey, gone. Blackburn, gone. Morneau, gone. Willingham, gone. That leaves Mauer and Perkins as the only players making money. Maybe Plouffe is up for money, maybe, but if Sano is up, is Plouffe on teh roster? Dozier, not likely. Really, you keep typing that the money won't be there, but outside Mauer, they will be spending at or near the league minimum on more than 15 players, maybe more, for the next 5 years.

 

If you assume a $120MM payroll is real, and it should be if $25MM more is coming in revenue, that leave 97MM outside mauer. If you have 15 guys making around a million on average, that leaves 72MM to sign the other players on teh roster. That's a lot of payroll flexibility.

 

Plus, they are pocketing tens of millions this year and the next couple of years to use for signing bonuses or whatever.....

 

Can someone explain to me what flexibility they lose if they have two guys making $48MM, if 15 others are making almost nothing?

 

Look at this roster........take off Morneau, Blackburn, Willingham, and Doumit.....which is what is happening in the next 18 months. Are you all saying those salaries are not enough for flexibility, let alone the $20MM they could add (without even considering the $25MM in new revenue) and still have the payroll be around $100MM?

 

All those guys are going to have to be replaced by somebody and in many cases, that will mean diving into the free agent market to replace them. Not all of Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, et al will pan out. Every team needs to round out a roster with free agent acquisitions and if you drop 40%+ in two guys who are probably going to peak and decline at nearly the same time, you're looking at a recipe for disaster. Right as that group of prospects is (hopefully) coming around and producing at an above-average rate, you've plunked a huge amount of your payroll into 32+ year old veterans who could be injured, ineffective, or both.

 

Baseball history hasn't been terribly kind to franchises who front-load their payroll on 2-3 star players. Too many things can go wrong with that strategy.

 

And again, I'm not saying they shouldn't be playing in the FA market. But they should be doing it on shorter, less expensive contracts that don't absolutely crucify the team if something goes wrong. Willingham was a great pick-up. I was all for going after Dempster, Marcum, or another mid-tier pitcher. There's an entire middle ground of free agency that won't kill the team over the long-term if something catastrophic happens.

 

Does anyone have a link to an article that outlines just how badly teams have done over the past several years when they allocate 40-50% of their payroll on 2-3 players? I've read a few of them in the past few years but can't remember where or when, exactly.

[Mike Sixel]

I've seen those studies, but you just made my argument.....all those guys will need to be replaced, and even if they signed Greinke, they'd have the money to do that! That's the point, plenty of money is coming off the books, and they are $15-30MM under the number that they would be at if the team was any good. Even signing Greinke, they still have a TON of money to sign other players, once the few players making money now leave.

 

Not to mention all the money they are banking right now that could be re-invested in the team later.

 

If all those prospects come up in 2 years (which they aren't), that's 6 years from today before they make real money. At that point, you have 2 years left of Grienke, and, oh, you have something like $50MM in new revenue or cost reduction to sign them, or others.

[Willihammer]

Does anyone have a link to an article that outlines just how badly teams have done over the past several years when they allocate 40-50% of their payroll on 2-3 players? I've read a few of them in the past few years but can't remember where or when, exactly.

 

THT looked at this a while back and arrived at the same conclusion:

 

[Willihammer]

Even if the Twins want a guy like Greinke, 2013 was not the season to do it. Greinke adds a handful of wins, which still puts the Twins somewhere in the "mediocre" range. You're throwing away the best seasons of a top-shelf pitcher on a team that isn't ready to compete in any way, shape, or form. By the time the Twins have enough pieces to make a run, there's a good chance that Greinke is on the decline (as evidenced by that pretty awful list of free agent pitchers who declined pretty rapidly after age 30).

 

2013 a lost season? We're 13-14. With a guy like Greinke in place of Pelfrey, maybe we're 15-12. Bloody hell, its May 6. Magic number is like 100.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've seen those studies, but you just made my argument.....all those guys will need to be replaced, and even if they signed Greinke, they'd have the money to do that! That's the point, plenty of money is coming off the books, and they are $15-30MM under the number that they would be at if the team was any good. Even signing Greinke, they still have a TON of money to sign other players, once the few players making money now leave.

 

Not to mention all the money they are banking right now that could be re-invested in the team later.

 

If all those prospects come up in 2 years (which they aren't), that's 6 years from today before they make real money. At that point, you have 2 years left of Grienke, and, oh, you have something like $50MM in new revenue or cost reduction to sign them, or others.

 

So no matter if it's a good idea or not, they should sign Greinke because they can?

 

I don't understand your point. I'm as irritated as anyone about the current state of the payroll (and this offseason in general) but diving into an arena where you're dedicating 40% of your payroll on two players just because you can when the team is coming off a 96 loss season is a bad idea.

 

I'd much rather see the Twins take a cautious, though not completely risk-averse, approach to free agency. 3-4 year deals on mid-range players to complement a strong farm system. That's how a team can win over the long haul without crossing their fingers and hoping that one guy doesn't go down and ruin their next three seasons.

 

Pay a guy $9m a year and you can win after that player goes downhill or gets injured. It's nearly impossible to do the same thing when a $22m player goes down.

[DutchFarmer]

Do you all remember when we were told the Twins couldn't compete because they couldn't sign FA's because they were committed to spending 52% of revenues on player salaries and revenues were significantly capped from the Dome? You all bought into that argument as justification for public subsidies for Target Field and yet when the Twins don't actually spend close to what they said they would you all toe the corporate line. I'm with the author on this one, even if the deals turn crummy in retrospect, I hate knowing I was had by all the Pohlad apologists.

 

Regardless, go Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

$120MM payroll.....which seems low given the free $25MM they get starting next year.....

 

Mauer - 97 MM left

Diamond - 90 MM left (going with a three year, 21MM deal)

Plouffe - 87MM left

Perkins/Burton/? - 77MM left

4 OFers making the minimum, rosario, sano, escobar/floriman/dozier, backup catcher - 72MM left

 

even if you spent all that 72MM on 10 players, they average more than 7MM each.....like that is going to happen. let's increas the total from the numbers above, but assume 2 more relief pitchers are in there.....let's say that 20MM is in those numbers, meaning you have $52MM to spend on 6-10 players......is that not enough to sign Grienke as one of those players?

 

Maybe not, maybe somehow they will go out and sign like 5 FAs that make in that $7MM range, but does anyone see that coming?