Article: How Do You Feel About This Year's Roster?

[Twinsoholic]

Can the Twins still pick up an alternative to Tyler Robertson in the pen. Tyler might be useful later on after some time in Rochester, but he looked horrible tonight, and I don't think his numbers this spring justify his presence as a lefty specialist on the club. Maybe another pitcher option will shake loose from another team this weekend. On the other hand, Bert mentioned tonight that he had a horrible ST with Cleveland and then came out smoking at the start of the season. Still ...

[cmathewson]

Can the Twins still pick up an alternative to Tyler Robertson in the pen. Tyler might be useful later on after some time in Rochester, but he looked horrible tonight, and I don't think his numbers this spring justify his presence as a lefty specialist on the club. Maybe another pitcher option will shake loose from another team this weekend. On the other hand, Bert mentioned tonight that he had a horrible ST with Cleveland and then came out smoking at the start of the season. Still ...

 

Reading between the lines, I think Ryan is working on it. It's not just the numbers. According to thylos, he topped out at 83 on the gun when he watched him. I'm concerned that he's hurt or something.

[Pius Jefferson]

I feel very depressed about the roster.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm in the 70-80 camp personally. I think the offense is going to be better than average. The question on defense is whether the upgrade from Dozier to Florimon will be greater than the downgrade from Casilla to Dozier. OF defense will be a little weaker, but I'm not convinced that Revere's range made up for his lack of an arm.

 

Regardless of all of this, it comes down to pitching. Decent starting pitching and I think this team would be contending. Unfortunately, I don't see much in terms of decent starting pitching. I like Worley going forward as he should settle into a nice #3 (not sure if he will do that this year given the league switch) and I think Deduno will eventually be a bright spot. Hendricks may eventually be a decent 3 too. I'm not sure either will be that this year and the rest will at best be 5s, if not replacement or below.

[ThePuck]

The Pirates ranked 20th in rotation ERA last year...Correia got bumped out of the rotation for awhile...and he's our #2 guy going into this season...

 

Remember when the argument was he'd be our #5 guy...

[mcrow]

Hmmm... Not really sure what I think of this roster. I think they will be about the same at the plate this year, maybe slightly better. It depends on Hicks and Morneau on whether or not there is a modest improvement or a step back in offensive production. I think the ups and downs of the rest of the team will balance out.

 

Going into spring trainig I thought that the rotation was better than what we saw most of the season last year but now I'm not sure of that. I still have hope that Worely and Diamond will be solid, but Correia and Pelfry are very worriesome. I like what I saw from Hendriks for the most part.

 

As for .500, I would be very surprised if they are near .500 early in the season. Diamond will be out for a bit and coming back without spring training, Plefry is still working his way back and there are a lot of young guys on the roster.

[ThePuck]

'Diamond is on the 15-day disabled list as he continues to recover from offseason arthroscopic elbow surgery, but he remains on track to make his first start of the regular season on April 12 against the Mets at Target Field.'

 

April 12th is the 10th game of the season and when Hendricks would be making his 2nd start...so now we know who he'll be replacing...

[mcrow]

'Diamond is on the 15-day disabled list as he continues to recover from offseason arthroscopic elbow surgery, but he remains on track to make his first start of the regular season on April 12 against the Mets at Target Field.'

 

April 12th is the 10th game of the season and when Hendricks would be making his 2nd start...so now we know who he'll be replacing...

 

 

I know that Diamond will be back early on but will he be full go, no rust? That's the question.

[ThePuck]

I know that Diamond will be back early on but will he be full go, no rust? That's the question.

 

I don't know, I was just posting some info I found.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm in the 70-80 camp personally. I think the offense is going to be better than average. The question on defense is whether the upgrade from Dozier to Florimon will be greater than the downgrade from Casilla to Dozier. OF defense will be a little weaker, but I'm not convinced that Revere's range made up for his lack of an arm.

 

Regardless of all of this, it comes down to pitching. Decent starting pitching and I think this team would be contending. Unfortunately, I don't see much in terms of decent starting pitching. I like Worley going forward as he should settle into a nice #3 (not sure if he will do that this year given the league switch) and I think Deduno will eventually be a bright spot. Hendricks may eventually be a decent 3 too. I'm not sure either will be that this year and the rest will at best be 5s, if not replacement or below.

 

Ben Revere's defense was worth 14.9 runs above average last year, so I'd say his range MORE than makes up for his arm.

Arm strength for an OF'er is pretty overrated IMO. On the scarce occasion that his arm came into play, it costs you 1 base, at worst. When he tracks one down deep in the gap it saves you at least 2 bases, plus 1 or more runs if there are runners on base.

People tend not to notice range as often as they do arm strength, because its usually pretty obvious when a guy takes the extra base on his arm, but its not so obvious when he makes a seemingly routine catch that an average OF'er wouldnt have gotten to.

[Kwak]

Somebody refresh me about the % of the game is pitching? My memory says 70%. So, does this roster emphasize the quality of pitching required (with resources) that fits that % of the game? Not only don't I think so, I don't believe the FO believes that pitching is anywhere near in importance to the aforementioned %. Therefore, I conclude that this team will continue to struggle mightily until the pitching problem is solved.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ben Revere's defense was worth 14.9 runs above average last year, so I'd say his range MORE than makes up for his arm.

Arm strength for an OF'er is pretty overrated IMO. On the scarce occasion that his arm came into play, it costs you 1 base, at worst. When he tracks one down deep in the gap it saves you at least 2 bases, plus 1 or more runs if there are runners on base.

People tend not to notice range as often as they do arm strength, because its usually pretty obvious when a guy takes the extra base on his arm, but its not so obvious when he makes a seemingly routine catch that an average OF'er wouldnt have gotten to.

 

Arent' these the same defensive metrics that said Gomez was worth 80 runs in the outfield? I'm somewhat skeptical of them for that reason. What I do know is this, Revere is the only person in my memory that saw runners tag up from 2nd and score, and you could pretty much guarantee that anything hit to him would result in a runner taking an extra base. I realize he can track down balls better than just about any, which is why I tend to think he's a great 4th OF, but his bat was nothing special and his arm cost runs too. He seems like a nice kid, so I hope he does well in Philly, but I think Ryan pulled off a major coup getting Worley and May for him.

 

That said, anyone placing hope in Hicks THIS YEAR, will likely be dissapointed. While the glove is ready now, people need to temper expectations on his bat. Up until last year, he's been underwhelming in the minors. And even last year was hardly dominant. He's also skipping a level. I suspect his OBP will keep him in the 1 slot, but I would not be surprised in the least if he struggled to crack a .750 OPS. I do have high hopes for him long term, but he's going to take some lumps this year... Hopefully Gardy is patient with him.

[snepp]

Arent' these the same defensive metrics that said Gomez was worth 80 runs in the outfield?

 

Defensive metrics never said any such thing, a writer doing statistical gymnastics did.

[Mr. Brooks]

Arent' these the same defensive metrics that said Gomez was worth 80 runs in the outfield? I'm somewhat skeptical of them for that reason. What I do know is this, Revere is the only person in my memory that saw runners tag up from 2nd and score, and you could pretty much guarantee that anything hit to him would result in a runner taking an extra base. I realize he can track down balls better than just about any, which is why I tend to think he's a great 4th OF, but his bat was nothing special and his arm cost runs too. He seems like a nice kid, so I hope he does well in Philly, but I think Ryan pulled off a major coup getting Worley and May for him.

 

That said, anyone placing hope in Hicks THIS YEAR, will likely be dissapointed. While the glove is ready now, people need to temper expectations on his bat. Up until last year, he's been underwhelming in the minors. And even last year was hardly dominant. He's also skipping a level. I suspect his OBP will keep him in the 1 slot, but I would not be surprised in the least if he struggled to crack a .750 OPS. I do have high hopes for him long term, but he's going to take some lumps this year... Hopefully Gardy is patient with him.

 

1) No, Gomez has been worth about 9 runs above average/year, defensively. Not sure where this 80 runs number is coming from.

2) Sure, his bat itself is nothing special, but extra bases via SB have value too. When you adjust his OPS for sb's (minus cs), it puts him in the adequate range.

3) I'd be pretty happy with a .750 OPS from Hicks. I'm putting him somewhere in the .720 to .730 range.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ben Revere's defense was worth 14.9 runs above average last year, so I'd say his range MORE than makes up for his arm.

Arm strength for an OF'er is pretty overrated IMO. On the scarce occasion that his arm came into play, it costs you 1 base, at worst. When he tracks one down deep in the gap it saves you at least 2 bases, plus 1 or more runs if there are runners on base.

People tend not to notice range as often as they do arm strength, because its usually pretty obvious when a guy takes the extra base on his arm, but its not so obvious when he makes a seemingly routine catch that an average OF'er wouldnt have gotten to.

 

Yep. To put it this way:

 

Ignoring offense, who would you want in RF (much less CF)? Vlad Guerrero, Michael Cuddyer, or Ben Revere?

 

I think any sane person chooses Revere 105% of the time.

 

With that said, Ben Revere shouldn't have played a single inning in RF. if he HAS to man a corner, it should be left.

[Riverbrian]

What I do know is this, Revere is the only person in my memory that saw runners tag up from 2nd and score, and you could pretty much guarantee that anything hit to him would result in a runner taking an extra base.

 

When exactly did a runner tag from 2nd and score on Ben?

 

If it did happen... Did it happen without error? Where did Ben catch the ball? What direction was his momentum? What role did the cut off man play in this odd rare occurrence? Was the cut off man hit cleanly? Exactly how fast was the runner who scored?

 

As for the extra base guarantee... Will held percentage back up that theory?

[ashbury]

I think any sane person chooses Revere 105% of the time.

 

I for one learned something last season about the relative value of arm versus legs in that position.

[cmathewson]

The Pirates ranked 20th in rotation ERA last year...Correia got bumped out of the rotation for awhile...and he's our #2 guy going into this season...

 

Remember when the argument was he'd be our #5 guy...

 

I don't think he'll be our #2 guy for long. When Diamond and Deduno are ready, he's the fourth guy, and then only because Pelfry's arm is a question mark.

[Guest USAFChief]

Defensive metrics never said any such thing, a writer doing statistical gymnastics did...

...using defensive metrics.

[diehardtwinsfan]

When exactly did a runner tag from 2nd and score on Ben?

 

If it did happen... Did it happen without error? Where did Ben catch the ball? What direction was his momentum? What role did the cut off man play in this odd rare occurrence? Was the cut off man hit cleanly? Exactly how fast was the runner who scored?

 

As for the extra base guarantee... Will held percentage back up that theory?

 

It was in the BYTO days, but it was a shot to deep center. The runner was fast but not a typical speedster. No error.

[Riverbrian]

It was in the BYTO days, but it was a shot to deep center. The runner was fast but not a typical speedster. No error.

 

It may have happened... I didn't see it... I'm pretty sure it isn't typical. Something didn't go right. The Runner didn't score from 2nd because his arm is weak. (yes... I believe Ben's Arm is sub-par).

 

One reason I'm pretty sure about this (without actually seeing the play). With a runner tagging on 2nd and a ball hit to the OF'er in the air... The Outfielder isn't throwing home.

 

Ben had to make a bad throw to the cut that may not be an actual error but a fundemental error and any outfielder is capable of that and it has little to do with arm strength.

 

Anyway, Ben's a ghost now... I wish him well in Philly... Loved watching him to do his thing in Minnesota.

 

Now that he's gone... I'm not sure which player I'm going to have to work overtime defending this year.

 

BTW... Check out the held percentages... Ben was above league average for RF and CF. Runners were not taking the extra base on him. His arm was sub-par but the effect of that arm is way overblown.

[jokin]

It may have happened... I didn't see it... I'm pretty sure it isn't typical. Something didn't go right. The Runner didn't score from 2nd because his arm is weak. (yes... I believe Ben's Arm is sub-par).

 

One reason I'm pretty sure about this (without actually seeing the play). With a runner tagging on 2nd and a ball hit to the OF'er in the air... The Outfielder isn't throwing home.

 

Ben had to make a bad throw to the cut that may not be an actual error but a fundemental error and any outfielder is capable of that and it has little to do with arm strength.

 

Anyway, Ben's a ghost now... I wish him well in Philly... Loved watching him to do his thing in Minnesota.

 

Now that he's gone... I'm not sure which player I'm going to have to work overtime defending this year.

 

BTW... Check out the held percentages... Ben was above league average for RF and CF. Runners were not taking the extra base on him. His arm was sub-par but the effect of that arm is way overblown.

 

Haven't seen the metrics, but it appeared that Revere got good coaching and made adjustments to improve his OF efficiency to offset some of his arm-weakness deficiencies, he actually had a few OF assists, as well.

[Riverbrian]

Haven't seen the metrics, but it appeared that Revere got good coaching and made adjustments to improve his OF efficiency to offset some of his arm-weakness deficiencies, he actually had a few OF assists, as well.

 

Fundamentals can be quite helpful. Get to the ball quick and get it in... The Runner ain't going anywhere.

 

The place where Revere will get burned is the routine flyball that he settles under. Runner tagging... Those are the situations where your arm is on an island. Your feet or fundamentals won't help you too much in that situation.

 

You either got the hose to nail him or you don't. Ben don't.

[snepp]

...using defensive metrics.

 

By using the combination of ridiculously unsustainable best and worst case scenarios, for multiple players, at multiple positions, yes.

 

That isn't a slight against a metric, it's a slight against the egregiously moronic misuse of one.