Mason: Correia expects to eat up innings for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Fan bases always have their irrational focal points for their ire. Correia is one of them, clearly.

I don't see what's irrational about it. The Twins' pitching staff is in horrible shape, in part, because they value pitchers like Correia.

[snepp]

Actually, based on the concepts of WAR, he more likely has less value than what they are paying him.

[Willihammer]

A 30% Improvement is a great improvement. It might still be failing, but it is improvement. Your make-believe poor parenting is not really germane to the discussion, though.

 

The Twins signed a player who based on the concepts of Wins over Replacement has more value than they are paying for him. Thus it's potentially a good move.

 

A replacement level player is worth 0 WAR. The Twins had 80 starts last year by the 6 ERA guys which were good for something like -10 Wins. In other words, they weren't even replacement level. So your baseline is somewhat skewed in relation to the overall marketplace for Wins.

 

But that is all really beside the point. Its not the value that is problem. This team has plenty of money. The problem is that Jr would rather get a good deal on a 1 Win player, than get a mediocre deal on a 3 or 4 win player.

 

This team has 20 games or more to make up. And they can afford to overpay good players on contracts that are a mediocre value. Heck, Mauer is a mediocre value. But you fill your roster with Mauer's and you have a much better team than a roster full of Correias.

[snepp]

The problem is that Jr would rather get a good deal on a 1 Win player, than get a mediocre deal on a 3 or 4 win player.

 

And in this case they got a mediocre deal on a guy that likely isn't even a 1 win player.

[Riverbrian]

I agree. That's why when my children failed a test miserably in school I always gave them credit for failing the next test less miserably. "Hey, good job junior! You only failed by 30% this time! Great improvement!"

 

Your Kids are gonna turn out great!!!

[nicksaviking]

A 30% Improvement is a great improvement. It might still be failing, but it is improvement. Your make-believe poor parenting is not really germane to the discussion, though.

 

The Twins signed a player who based on the concepts of Wins over Replacement has more value than they are paying for him. Thus it's potentially a good move.

 

Well how about this one then. The Twins apologists are acting like the parents who are told their child has been sent home from school for misbehaving and they fly off the handle and blame the school. "My kid couldn't have done anything wrong! He's an angel! Are you calling him a liar?!?!"

 

The rest of us are trying to hold our child accontable for thier mistakes hoping that they will not repeat them and they may develop into a functioning ball club er human being.

[Riverbrian]

I think it's a more accurate comparison to be a Parent of a child that is getting into Bar Fights at age 12. Screaming at the top of his lungs in the supermarket that he wants Milk Duds while setting his sister's bra on fire and crapping behind the fridge where no one can see it but everyone can smell it.

 

The parent sends that kid to Juvie and changes the locks on the doors and picks up 3 or 4 new kids who are all fairly well behaved but struggle from time to time with advanced math.

 

My comparison is the most accurate!!!

[LoganJones]

I don't see what's irrational about it. The Twins' pitching staff is in horrible shape, in part, because they value pitchers like Correia.

 

And fans are irrational when they ignore the fact that players like Correia do have value. He's being paid less for two years of service to the Twins than Anibel Sanchez is getting for one year with the Tigers. Using a bunch of boring calculations, we see that Sanchez projects to be worth 4-6 More wins over that 2 year period than Correia. He's also getting paid 35 Million to Correia's 10.

 

We also see that Sanchez is contracted for an additional 3 years where his downward trends are more likely to be catching up with him. He's a much bigger risk, and that's where guys like Correia have their value. They're not as flashy effective, but they do help good teams win. If the team has a functioning offense that can put up similar numbers to last year, Correia will put the team in a postion to win a very similar percentage of games Sanchez will for the Tigers, at much less cost.

 

The annoying part of Correia's contract shouldn't be that he signed it, but that the flexibility it provided hasn't resulted in more signings.

[nicksaviking]

And fans are irrational when they ignore the fact that players like Correia do have value. He's being paid less for two years of service to the Twins than Anibel Sanchez is getting for one year with the Tigers. Using a bunch of boring calculations, we see that Sanchez projects to be worth 4-6 More wins over that 2 year period than Correia. He's also getting paid 35 Million to Correia's 10.

 

We also see that Sanchez is contracted for an additional 3 years where his downward trends are more likely to be catching up with him. He's a much bigger risk, and that's where guys like Correia have their value. They're not as flashy effective, but they do help good teams win. If the team has a functioning offense that can put up similar numbers to last year, Correia will put the team in a postion to win a very similar percentage of games Sanchez will for the Tigers, at much less cost.

 

The annoying part of Correia's contract shouldn't be that he signed it, but that the flexibility it provided hasn't resulted in more signings.

 

If you are going to compare Correia's contract to Sanchez's, then why not compare Correia's to Lannan, Jurrjains or Marcum? Those guys are getting paid in fewer dollars and years than Correia. Would that not make them a better proposition for the Twins under your theory?

[LoganJones]

Actually, based on the concepts of WAR, he more likely has less value than what they are paying him.

You have to evaluate who the player would have been replacing. And in Correia's case, it's a bunch of really bad players. Hell, the guy was worth .9 WAR last year even though he was tossed out of the rotation for a couple weeks.

 

The rest of us are trying to hold our child accontable for thier mistakes hoping that they will not repeat them and they may develop into a functioning ball club

 

No. At this point all you're doing is whining. You aren't in a postion to hold the team to anything. You're angry because you don't like the direction and there's nothing you can do about it. You're certain you have better plans than the Twins, but for a cruel twist of fate you are working at an insurance company rather than the Twins front office. It's stupid to keep carrying on day after day about the same thing. Kevin Correia is going to pitch for the Twins. If he sucks he'll get cut. If he pitches like he has, he'll win some games for them. It's just that simple.

[LoganJones]

If you are going to compare Correia's contract to Sanchez's, then why not compare Correia's to Lannon, Jurrjains or Marcum? Those guys are getting paid in fewer dollars and years than Correia. Would that not make them a better proposition for the Twins under your theory?

 

That's exactly my point with the last line. I have no issue with Correia, Pelfrey, Worley. I want more. There weren't any opportunities for aces this year, so I prefer the blue collar approach. Joe Saunders would be perfect for this.

[snepp]

You have to evaluate who the player would have been replacing. And in Correia's case, it's a bunch of really bad players. Hell, the guy was worth .9 WAR last year even though he was tossed out of the rotation for a couple weeks.

 

If you're going to give Correia "credit" for the person he's replacing, then you have to give that same credit to a superior pitcher that would be replacing him, which makes your argument just as wrong.

[nicksaviking]

You have to evaluate who the player would have been replacing. And in Correia's case, it's a bunch of really bad players. Hell, the guy was worth .9 WAR last year even though he was tossed out of the rotation for a couple weeks.

 

 

 

No. At this point all you're doing is whining. You aren't in a postion to hold the team to anything. You're angry because you don't like the direction and there's nothing you can do about it. You're certain you have better plans than the Twins, but for a cruel twist of fate you are working at an insurance company rather than the Twins front office. It's stupid to keep carrying on day after day about the same thing. Kevin Correia is going to pitch for the Twins. If he sucks he'll get cut. If he pitches like he has, he'll win some games for them. It's just that simple.

 

There is plenty we can do about it. If we are vocal enough the dissatisfaction will spread. Reporters will ask the front office difficult questions they would rather not be honest about and fans will have less patience and will not tune in or show up to the stadium. The fans need to be the FIRST segment of Twins nation to hold the front office accountable. How much money and effort do you think they would put into the product if the fans blindly followed the team and said nothing? There is a reason the Cubs are such miserable losers.

[LoganJones]

If you're going to give Correia "credit" for the person he's replacing, then you have to give that same credit to a superior pitcher that would be replacing him, which makes your argument just as wrong.

No, it doesn't. I've never once suggested guys like Sanchez or Grienke wouldn't have been even better for the rotation. I'm not arguing that Correia is the best possible choice for the Team. I'm saying he's not really being overpaid based on ways to evaluate his value to the team. I'm also arguing that getting multiple guys in Correia's price range on short deals is a better way to recover from a truly shambled rotation than paying one guy 5/88 when he's showing signs of getting worse.

[LoganJones]

There is plenty we can do about it. If we are vocal enough the dissatisfaction will spread. Reporters will ask the front office difficult questions they would rather not be honest about and fans will have less patience and will not tune in or show up to the stadium. The fans need to be the FIRST segment of Twins nation to hold the front office accountable. How much money and effort do you think they would put into the product if the fans blindly followed the team and said nothing? There is a reason the Cubs are such miserable losers.

 

Posting angry missives over and over in a message board is not going to spread dissatisfaction. It's just going to make people ignore your nonsense.

[Willihammer]

No, it doesn't. I've never once suggested guys like Sanchez or Grienke wouldn't have been even better for the rotation. I'm not arguing that Correia is the best possible choice for the Team. I'm saying he's not really being overpaid based on ways to evaluate his value to the team. I'm also arguing that getting multiple guys in Correia's price range on short deals is a better way to recover from a truly shambled rotation than paying one guy 5/88 when he's showing signs of getting worse.

 

The price of Wins isn't contingent on how good or bad the Twins pitching staff was last year. Whether Correia represents a 2 win or 20 win improvement over the likes of PJ Walters and Sam Deduno is irrelevant. He's a 1 win talent, at best. So the Twins aren't getting any particularly great value, certainly not much better than a 1-4 win talent like Sanchez at $15m, or even a 1-10 Win talent like Greinke at $25m.

[Big Daddy H]

Correia expects to eat up innings for Twins

 

Lets give the old boy a chance. He pitched some good games last year for the Pirates. Also, Target field is not a homer friendly park so maybe hitters will just be hitting longer fly balls that can be caught. He will be more effective at home so lets position him that way, and pass him by when we are playing in a band box size stadium.

[LoganJones]

The price of Wins isn't contingent on how good or bad the Twins pitching staff was last year. Whether Correia represents a 2 win or 20 win improvement over the likes of PJ Walters and Sam Deduno is irrelevant. He's a 1 win talent, at best. So the Twins aren't getting any particularly great value, certainly not much better than a 1-4 win talent like Sanchez at $15m, or even a 1-10 Win talent like Greinke at $25m.

 

Do you think WAR is a real thing? I doubt you do. It's just a way of quickly outlining how much runs are worth on average. That varies from year to year, team to team. It's just a basic idea that helps shape what you feel paying any player is appropriate. They're paying 5 Mil per year to Correia to as you say, give them at best 1 win for next year. I'm sure the Team thinks he's got the potential to be worth more than 1 win, but let's just say they expect him to be worth 1. It still seems they have paid him appropriately, since nobody signs someone they expect to fail.

[snepp]

Correia has accumulated roughly 1 FIP-based WAR over the last 3 year, and negative 2 RA-based WAR in that time. That makes him more of a replacement level player than a 1 WAR player moving forward.

 

You don't give $5 million to near-replacement level players, and you certainly don't give them multiple years.

[LoganJones]

Correia has accumulated roughly 1 FIP-based WAR over the last 3 year, and negative 2 RA-based WAR in that time. That makes him more of a replacement level player than a 1 WAR player moving forward.

 

You don't give $5 million to near-replacement level players, and you certainly don't give them multiple years.

 

OK. Feel free to keep banging your stick on the ground. I'm sure you'll eventually get your point across.

[edavis0308]

And fans are irrational when they ignore the fact that players like Correia do have value. He's being paid less for two years of service to the Twins than Anibel Sanchez is getting for one year with the Tigers. Using a bunch of boring calculations, we see that Sanchez projects to be worth 4-6 More wins over that 2 year period than Correia. He's also getting paid 35 Million to Correia's 10.

 

We also see that Sanchez is contracted for an additional 3 years where his downward trends are more likely to be catching up with him. He's a much bigger risk, and that's where guys like Correia have their value. They're not as flashy effective, but they do help good teams win. If the team has a functioning offense that can put up similar numbers to last year, Correia will put the team in a postion to win a very similar percentage of games Sanchez will for the Tigers, at much less cost.

 

The annoying part of Correia's contract shouldn't be that he signed it, but that the flexibility it provided hasn't resulted in more signings.

 

Do you think WAR is a real thing? I doubt you do. It's just a way of quickly outlining how much runs are worth on average. That varies from year to year, team to team. It's just a basic idea that helps shape what you feel paying any player is appropriate. They're paying 5 Mil per year to Correia to as you say, give them at best 1 win for next year. I'm sure the Team thinks he's got the potential to be worth more than 1 win, but let's just say they expect him to be worth 1. It still seems they have paid him appropriately, since nobody signs someone they expect to fail.

 

But... But...

[johnnydakota]

You have to evaluate who the player would have been replacing. And in Correia's case, it's a bunch of really bad players. Hell, the guy was worth .9 WAR last year even though he was tossed out of the rotation for a couple weeks.

 

 

 

No. At this point all you're doing is whining. You aren't in a postion to hold the team to anything. You're angry because you don't like the direction and there's nothing you can do about it. You're certain you have better plans than the Twins, but for a cruel twist of fate you are working at an insurance company rather than the Twins front office. It's stupid to keep carrying on day after day about the same thing. Kevin Correia is going to pitch for the Twins. If he sucks he'll get cut. If he pitches like he has, he'll win some games for them. It's just that simple.

 

ok so what else is there to talk about if not the players ?

You want positive discussion , make positive acquitions...

[snepp]

OK. Feel free to keep banging your stick on the ground. I'm sure you'll eventually get your point across.

 

If poorly constructed defenses of his signing weren't being made, the stick-banging wouldn't be required.

[edavis0308]

The best analogy I have thought of in respect to the matter is this:

 

Let's pretend I need a gallon of milk, and I am going to give you $20 dollars and send you to the store. I tell you that I prefer the organic kind, but if it is too expensive when you get there, just a regular gallon will do. You return with a pint of regular milk, saying it was a better deal. You also pocket my change. Once I drink the pint in one day, I ask you to go get me more milk with the money I gave you, and you say you dont have it anymore. I'm left drinking water the rest of the week. Now if you would use that money to get me something to drink other than water, or buy me a present or something with, you know, MY money, I probably wouldnt be so angry. At least that way I am some kind of value with my own money that I gave you in the first place.

[TheLeviathan]

If poorly constructed defenses of his signing weren't being made, the stick-banging wouldn't be required.

 

I say we shut the whole thing down. Sorry TD - LoganJones feels all opinions are meaningless. So....we all just agree to de-bookmark, have a beer, and go our separate ways then? I think that's his point. Nothing else is "rational" to borrow a term.

 

Unless.....you see that he's stick-banging about stick-banging. And if stick-banging is meaningless then his stick banging about the stick-banging meaningless. Problem....solved?

[snepp]

The best analogy I have thought of in respect to the matter is this:

 

You left out the part where you were constantly being assured that your regular milk was in fact organic, despite the evidence to the contrary.

[nicksaviking]

OK. Feel free to keep banging your stick on the ground. I'm sure you'll eventually get your point across.

 

So pro-front office stick banging = effective

Disappointment with the front office stick banging = ineffective

 

Got it. That is one hard lesson to learn.

[ThePuck]

his ERA+ for the past 3 years is 78. The 104 starts in question gave us an ERA+ of 69. 8.8% better in that regard, too.

 

Thanks for the info...but you can see why people have issues with signing someone so very low below an ERA+ of 100.

[Willihammer]

how much runs are worth on average. That varies from... team to team.

 

No it doesn't. What defines "replacement level" is an average across the entire league. The Twins could elavate the quality of their replacements by simply picking up guys on waivers and signing guys to minor league contracts for basically zero dollars. Would that be any better of a bargain than signing a 1 win player for $5m?

 

You're right, I don't like WAR and I don't like constructing rosters based on past WAR but it happens to be more or less in line with how the market values free agents, that is roughly $5-7m for every Win.

[snepp]

Unless.....you see that he's stick-banging about stick-banging. And if stick-banging is meaningless then his stick banging about the stick-banging meaningless. Problem....solved?

 

Stick-banging

???

Profit