5 Reasons Nelson Cruz is a Good Bet to Win the AL MVP

[Patrick Wozniak]

A 60-game season with universal DH and a hot start may just be the perfect storm that leads Nelson Cruz to the AL MVP.So far, so good. Cruz’s season is only three games old but he’s managed to make the most of it. Cruz is leading the American League in fWAR (at 0.6 he’s over halfway to his 1.1 fWAR ZiPS projection), home runs (3), RBI (10), and wOBA (.801). Again, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re also dealing with a really short season, so the hot start is ever meaningful. But regardless of the hot start, Cruz’s chances of grabbing the MVP are better than ever. I promised five reasons, so here they are:

 

1) Counting Stats Will Matter in 2020

 

MVP voters will have less to go on due to the short nature of the season, so traditional counting stats like home runs and RBI will be an easy and obvious measure of a player’s success. Cruz is already up four in the RBI race and leading in home runs as well. He’s currently sitting third in batting average (.538) and hit .311 last season, so Cruz has a legitimate chance at the triple crown which would significantly bolster his MVP chances.

 

2) Minnesota’s Ridiculous Lineup Makes Cruz Even Better

 

Minnesota has one of the best lineups in baseball with no real weakness one-through-nine. If pitchers decide to pitch around Cruz, someone else will hurt them. Plus, as has been the case thus far, Cruz is going to come to the plate with plenty of runners on base, giving him plenty of RBI opportunities. The potent nature of the offense will also lead to plenty of plate appearances for Cruz giving him even more chances to pad his counting stats.

 

3) The Usual Suspects Are More Suspect

 

Due to the increased variance of 60-games, some of baseball’s best hitters won’t have enough time to correct a bad stretch. Even if a great player like Mike Trout has his typical MVP-worthy season, someone is going to go off and put up video game numbers in the shortened season. And so far that player has been Nelson Cruz.

 

4) Being a DH Won’t Be the Detriment That It Usually Is

 

First off, the implementation of the DH in the National League means Cruz will no longer have to sit-out or be limited to pinch hitting appearances when the Twins are playing in NL parks. This is huge since Minnesota is playing a larger percentage of interleague games than is the norm. Additionally, defensive numbers take more time to stabilize, so MVP voters are more likely to focus on offensive numbers and the aforementioned counting stats that Cruz excels in.

 

5) Cruz Is a Great Story

 

A good narrative never hurts a player’s MVP chances and Cruz certainly has one. After having arguably his best season as a 39-year-old, Cruz continues to defy Father Time with an even better start to his age-40 season. He was also recently the recipient of the 2020 Muhammad Ali Sports Humanitarian Award and is well respected as a person and teammate. He has been instrumental in mentoring younger players like Miguel Sanó and it’s made for great storylines.

 

What do you think? Does Cruz have a legitimate shot at MVP? Do you think the Twins should attempt to extend Cruz into his age-41 season and beyond? Please leave your comments below!

 

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[Cap'n Piranha]

I don't know how many people realize this (I certainly didn't until I looked it up), but going only by offense last year (using wRC+), Mike Trout in his prime season (he spent more of 2019 as a 27 year old than a 28 year old, birthday is 8/7) was only 10% better than Nelson Cruz in his age 38/39 season (almost an even split since his birthday is 7/1).  That's almost impossible to put into context, other than to say, Nelson Cruz is really really good at hitting baseballs.

[Shaitan]

Counterpoint: Cruz has an outstanding season but, with reduced travel, writers on the Coasts forget the Midwest exists.