Twins Offseason Blueprints

[Steve J]

Here's mine. It's not complete and I'm still missing a shortstop and another utility player. I would also like more options in the bullpen. It comes in at $90M currently including the legacy costs of Blackburn, etc.

 

Offseason blueprint:

 

Trade Justin Morneau for a C+ Prospect and pick up $4M of his salary. After LaRoche, Morneau is the second best 1b option probably available. I’m looking for about $10m in budget relief and a low-minors pitching arm. I don’t think that’s too much to ask for a one-year rental.

 

Trade (Denard Span OR Ben Revere) and Michael Tonkin and Josmil Pinto to TB for SP James Shields. I think TB would prefer the cheaper, healthier, pre-arb Ben Revere to even Span’s team-friendly contract. We’re giving up a lot, but getting a very good player. If we can’t resign him after his contract lapses, he’s the type of guy we could probably give a qualifying offer to and win either way. This gets Tampa a solution in center, catcher, and a minor leaguer with a good arm. Actually, if we can substitute Tonkin for some other pitcher, that would be great. I'm just trying not to make this a deal a homer.

Sign SP Roy Oswalt to a one-year $6m contract. I don’t think he’s retiring and his peripherals from last season indicate he can still pitch at a high level. I hear he held out last season as he wanted to pitch close to his Mississippi home and MN isn’t that far (and he may be giving up on that requirement). He enjoys hunting and MN is a good state for an outdoorsman. If he still insists on being closer to home, he may sign with STL or KC, but MN remains an option. At least he’s got to know that MN won’t bench a veteran after a few bad starts.

Re-sign SP Scott Baker. For an incentive laden contract with a base of 2M and incentives up to 6M with a 11m team option for ’14. He’s a full free agent now, but I can see this working out as he likes it here.

Offer a minor league deal with an invite to spring training to P Jonathan Sanchez. This is a reclamation project that could work out for both parties.

Sign OF Grady Sizemore to a one-year deal for $2.5M + incentives based on AB up to $5.5m. I have a hunch he is going to be a “hidden gem” about a dozen other teams are going to be offering an deal with incentives to, but MN might be only one in the AL Central where he’s used to playing.

Sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a one year $1.5M contract

C: Mauer, $23M

1b: Parmelee $ .5M

2b: Carroll $3.75M

3b: Plouffe $.5M

SS:

LF: Willingham $7M

CF: Span $4.75M

RF Sizemore $5.5M

DH: Doumit $3.5M

IF: Florimon $.5M

OF: Mastriaonni $.5M

C: Butera $.6M

 

SP: Shields* $9M

SP: Oswalt* $6M

SP: Baker* $6M

SP: Diamond $.5M

SP: who really cares if we get the first four, I suppose Gibson, DeVries, Henricks, etc $ .5M

RP: Perkins (L) $2.5M

RP: Burton ® $2M

RP: M. Gonzalez (L)* $1.5M

RP: Burnett ® $.5M

RP: Fien ® $.5M

RP: Slama ® $.5M

RP: Duensing (L) $.6M

 

Legacy Costs

RHP: Blackburn $5.5M, justin morneau $4M (salary picked up from his trade)

 

STAY AWAY: from junk throwing middle aged "Innings Eaters". I'm talking about the Millwoods, Guthries, and Saunders of the market. We would be buying no-upside players with lots of downside potential on multi-year contracts, and you can get innings from anywhere.

[Steve J]

Keep in mind I'm wearing rose tinted glasses and drinking Kool-Aid.

1. Trade Revere and Parmalee for Shields. If you could fuse the two of them together, they'd make a great player. Nonetheless, I'd wager that combined they'll be worth more than double the Career War of Aaron Hicks...

2. Trade Hicks for Elvis Andrus. With Maestro and Benson near ready as at least defensive CFers, and Buxton and maybe Rosario in the pipeline, trade high on Hicks.

3. Sign Haren for 3/33$ or something

4. Bring back Baker.

5. Spread a wide net for veteran SP on the rebound, starting with Pavano, Bedard, et. al.

Done and done. Haren and Shields seem to profile as classic Morris/Radke/Pavano type bulldog/gritty/workhorse guys. Lineup intact with a solid addition of Andrus. Rotation bolstered.

 

You aren't going to get Haren for eleven million, and probably not for only 3 years of comittment. And why in the world would Texas trade away Andrus for a B-list outfield prospect? That makes no sense for Texas at all. Andrus one of the best SS in the American League, is young, and not too expensive. And since TX isn't shopping him, you would have to pay very high to get him.

 

Even if this works out, your payroll looks like it will be over 100M

[NoCryingInBaseball]

With so little happening now and doubtful prior to the Winter Meetings, I have been considering putting together a blue print. After all, other than having Baker sign with the Cubbies, very little has transpired.

 

The only thing that prevented me from putting together my list was my indecision between trading Span or Morneau, while I like both of them the Twins are in desperate need of starters. I have been leaning towards trading Span for weeks now, but it simply boils down to who replaces the trade (Span or Morneau) and both position players would most likely be replaced with Parmelee and his natural position would be first base. With only one year remaining on Morneau’s contract he seems to be more expendable. Keeping Span would allow more time for the outfielders who are knocking on the door to develop.

 

So trade for a young pitching prospect, even if the Twins need to cover some of the contract. Sign a couple of free agents (Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Villanova) and let the young minor leaguers develop into starters for 2014 and 2015.

[Shane Wahl]

1. Sign Shaun Marcum for 3 years/40 million (+13)

2. Trade Denard Span for Something Cool (-4.75)

3. Sign Kevin Youkilis 2 years/15 Million (+7.5)

4. Sign Erik Bedard 1/3 Million (+3)

5. Sign Rich Harden to incentives based deal (+4)

6. Sign Scott Baker to incentives based deal (+4)

 

 

I don't like the overall plan here, but I love the ballsy Youkilis move. He is one of my favorite players and I love the OBP potential there if he has a bounce-back season. Add in Ichiro and the Twins would have my heart.

 

Anyway, I would have liked, if adding Youkilis, to trade Morneau or Parmelee. And actually, the addition of a RH bat like that makes me more open to trading Willingham.

 

I have big doubts about moving Plouffe anywhere else.

[jorgenswest]

What's your blueprint now?

 

Good news thus far this winter:

 

Entering 2012 the Twins farm system was in the bottom 10 of major league teams. The farm system is now in the top 10. The Twins have added two very hard to acquire power arms to their stable.

 

They added a young starter that can be counted on to help this year and down the road.

 

Step one of Terry's blueprint looks to be rebuild the system. Mission accomplished

 

What still needs to be addressed...

 

There are at most 4 guys that can even remotely be projected to be in the rotation both this year and in the future. (Worley, Diamond, Gibson and Hendriks).

 

The defense may be the worst in team history.

 

Mastroianni will probably be below league average in CF. He did not come into baseball as a CF. The Blue Jays started him at 2B, moved him to CF and played him in LF when they had a better CF option in the minors. It is hard to find scouting reports because he wasn't a prospect. The Minor League Baseball Analyst liked his work ethic and make up but said both his arm and instincts came up short. Together, Parmelee and Willingham will be well below league average at the corners. Our young pitching staff deserves better.

 

The infield defense may not be much better. Scouting reports on Florimon spoke of flash and inconsistency. Escobar's reports are better, but his bat is weaker if that is possible. Plouffe will get better with more time at 3B.

 

Catching? Overall it was below average last year and hasn't changed.

 

Another concern... key offensive players are in their decline phase.

 

What next?

 

I would trade the veterans. The off season is the perfect time to trade a guy like Morneau and send cash to pay a significant part of his salary. Budget lines are much tighter in the offseason. There are teams that still need a bat and don't have the budget space. The Twins can make it work for them with the right offer. Willingham could be dealt in this fashion also.

 

Fix the defense by playing Hicks or Benson in CF and Arcia in RF. Select a SS by glove first. Yes, the arbitration clock will start one year earlier. The Twins are not a small market team, they can afford to pay them when their time comes. Worst case is that they will be so good that they will be able to demand millions in arbitration. The Twins should hope for such misery.

 

Sign a starter like Jurrjens or Lannon and see if they can right their career. The Twins should be a good fit for them.

 

Wait out the free agent market and sign a veteran starter to a one year deal that can be flipped midseason.

 

Play young guys who can defend and let their bats struggle. Defense first when choosing a SS and back up catcher. The Twins do need to assess if Butera is really an elite defender. Metrics suggest otherwise.

 

Earlier the argument was that the Twins couldn't rebuild for the future because they had no arms in the system. That can't be argued any longer. This could be a historically bad season for losses. It also could be the first step towards Minnesota's 4th successful run of good seasons.

[Big City]

Now that we've traded Span and Revere, what do we do next? The assumption is that we haven't signed any pitching so, let's get started there but I say, not so fast my friends. I'd say our biggest organizational need at this point has now shifted to SS. If we were to start the season today, the Twins could have a rotation that would look like this:

 

#1 Diamond

#2 Worley

#3 Hendricks

#4 Gibson

#5 May/Deduno/DeVries/Hermsen/Blackburn

 

Now you look at the Twins 2014 projected rotation and you start to see fewer holes:

 

#1 Worley

#2 Diamond

#3 Gibson

#4 May

#5 Meyer/Hendricks/Hermsen/DeVries

 

Based on that, do we really need to go out and sign 3 or even 2 SP's? Would it even be wise to sign 1 to a long-term deal? I'd say no. After trading Span and Revere I think TR's addressed a huge organizational concern and set up the Twins to sign one, maybe two starting pitchers to short-term contracts to bridge the gap. Shaun Marcum would be a perfect candidate on a 2-year deal and what about Brett Myers on a 2-3 year deal. With Myers, he could be stretched out to start the season in the rotation until Gibson is ready to take over. At that point Myers can be shifted back to the bullpen where the Twins have another need.

 

Finally, getting to the SS position. If the Twins seriously hope to contend or even compete in 2013 they need to address their middle infield. By signing Stephen Drew to a 3-year $33 million we may be able to guarantee his services. Signing Drew would shift Carroll to 2nd and demote Florimon, Escobar, and/or Dozier to AAA where they belong. This could also create the opportunity/option to trade Willingham and move Plouffe to LF if Sano is ready for the call in 2014. It would also create the opportunity/option to trade Carroll when/if Rosario is also ready for his call in 2014.

 

With these moves I've suggested the Twins could be highly competitive in 2013:

 

CF Mastrionni/Hicks

SS Drew

C Mauer

LF Willingham

1B Morneau

DH Doumit

RF Parmalee

3B Plouffe

2B Carroll

 

SP Marcum

SP Worley

SP Diamond

SP Myers

SP Hendricks

 

In 2014, having traded Morneau, Willingham, Carroll, and Marcum (with those trades, I'd suggest targeting a top SS, C, and SP prospect):

 

CF Hicks

SS Drew

C Mauer

1B Parmalee

DH Doumit

LF Plouffe

RF Arcia

3B Sano

2B Rosario

 

SP Worley

SP Diamond

SP Gibson

SP May

SP Meyer

[Shane Wahl]

Did ANYONE have trading both Span and Revere in their blueprint?????

 

I do know that I heard one or more commenters say that throughout the last several months. Of course, one hears just about anything and everything around here.

 

I have to re-think things now, certainly.

[shs_59]

1. Draft LHP Danny Rosenbaum in Rule 5 draft. (missed him by 2 spots) ACTUAL: Alex Pressly ...return to boston.

2. Trade Denard Span for Alex Meyer (B+)

3. Trade Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May (B/ B-)

4. Trade Josh Willingham and Eduardo Escobar to Pittsburgh Pirates for P Kyle McPherson (B-),P Nick Kingham (, and SS Alen Hanson (B+)

5. Let Scott Baker (ugh), Matt Capps, Matt Carson, JR Towles and Luis Perdomo all leave via FA.

6. Sign Jeff Kobernus or Casey McGahee or Mark DeRosa to a 1 yr minor league deal w/ invite to ST.

7. Sign -Brandon McCarthy- I mean -Joe Blanton- Damn I mean: LHP Joe Saunders to a 2 yr. $ 13 Million dollar deal.

8. Sign -Cody Ross- i mean - Ichiro- i mean -Bobby Abreu- Damn I mean: LF/3B Mark Reynolds to a 2 yr. $15 Million dollar deal

9. Sign SP Jeff Karstens to a 1 yr. $3.5 Million dollar deal.

 

 

2013 opening day Roster:

 

1. CF - Darin Mastroanni

2. 2B - Jamey Carroll

3. C - Joe Mauer

4. 1B - Justin Morneau

5. LF - Mark Reynolds

6. RF - Chris Parmelee

7. 3B - T-Money Plouffe

8. DH - Ryan Doumit

9. SS - Pedro Florimon

 

Bench:

SS/2B - Brian Dozier

OF -- Joe Benson

C --- Drew Butera

3B -- Mark DeRosa ?

 

Pitching :

SP Kyle Gibson

SP Scott Diamond

SP Vance Worley

SP Joe Saunders

SP Jeff Karstens

 

Bullpen :

 

LHP - Brian Duensing

LHP - Glen Perkins

LHP - Tyler Robertson

RHP - Alex Burnett

RHP - Jared Burton

RHP - Casey Fien

RHP - Kyle Waldrop

 

 

AAA ROC Red Wings

 

SP Kyle McPherson

SP Liam Hendriks

SP Samuel Deduno

SP Cole DeVries

SP BJ Hermsen

 

RP Anthony Swarzak

RP Anthony Slama

RP Caleb Theilbar

RP Deolis Guerra

RP Steven Hirshfeld

RP min. lg. FA

 

AAron Hicks, Chris Herrmann, Deibinson Romero, Evan Bigley, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dinkelman, Chris Collabelo.

 

 

AA New Britian Rock Cats

SP Trevor May

SP Alex Wimmers

SP Alex Meyer

SP Pat Dean/ Logan Darnell

SP Matt Summers

 

RP Dakota Watts

RP Matt Hauser

RP Bruce Pugh

RP Jose Gonzalez

RP Ricky Bowen

RP Ryan O' Rourke

RP Miguel Munoz

 

Oswaldo Arcia, Nathan Roberts, Daniel Santana, James Beresford, Nate Hanson, Josmil Pinto, Angel *cough* Morales, Levi Michael*.

 

A+ Ft. Myers Miracle

 

SP Nick Kingham

SP Mason Melotakis

SP Hudson Boyd

SP Adrian Salcedo

SP Jason Wheeler

 

RP Zach Jones

RP Luke Bard

RP A.J. Achter

RP Madison Boer

RP DJ Baxendale

RP Corey Williams

RP Clint Dempster

RP Cole Nelson

DL Manuel Soliman

DL Matt Tomshaw

 

Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Allen Hanson, Niko Goodrum, Jario Rodriguez, Kyle Knudson, Danny Ortiz, Lance Ray,Travis Harrison, Max Kepler.

 

 

a-ball types:

 

Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Aderlin Mejia, Jorge Fernandez, Amuerys Minier, Felix Jorge, Trent Higginbotham, Austin Malinowski, Tyler Duffy, Taylor Rogers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Now that we've traded Span and Revere, what do we do next? The assumption is that we haven't signed any pitching so, let's get started there but I say, not so fast my friends. I'd say our biggest organizational need at this point has now shifted to SS. If we were to start the season today, the Twins could have a rotation that would look like this:

 

#1 Diamond

#2 Worley

#3 Hendricks

#4 Gibson

#5 May/Deduno/DeVries/Hermsen/Blackburn

 

Now you look at the Twins 2014 projected rotation and you start to see fewer holes:

 

#1 Worley

#2 Diamond

#3 Gibson

#4 May

#5 Meyer/Hendricks/Hermsen/DeVries

 

Based on that, do we really need to go out and sign 3 or even 2 SP's? Would it even be wise to sign 1 to a long-term deal? I'd say no. After trading Span and Revere I think TR's addressed a huge organizational concern and set up the Twins to sign one, maybe two starting pitchers to short-term contracts to bridge the gap. Shaun Marcum would be a perfect candidate on a 2-year deal and what about Brett Myers on a 2-3 year deal. With Myers, he could be stretched out to start the season in the rotation until Gibson is ready to take over. At that point Myers can be shifted back to the bullpen where the Twins have another need.

 

Finally, getting to the SS position. If the Twins seriously hope to contend or even compete in 2013 they need to address their middle infield. By signing Stephen Drew to a 3-year $33 million we may be able to guarantee his services. Signing Drew would shift Carroll to 2nd and demote Florimon, Escobar, and/or Dozier to AAA where they belong. This could also create the opportunity/option to trade Willingham and move Plouffe to LF if Sano is ready for the call in 2014. It would also create the opportunity/option to trade Carroll when/if Rosario is also ready for his call in 2014.

 

With these moves I've suggested the Twins could be highly competitive in 2013:

 

CF Mastrionni/Hicks

SS Drew

C Mauer

LF Willingham

1B Morneau

DH Doumit

RF Parmalee

3B Plouffe

2B Carroll

 

SP Marcum

SP Worley

SP Diamond

SP Myers

SP Hendricks

 

In 2014, having traded Morneau, Willingham, Carroll, and Marcum (with those trades, I'd suggest targeting a top SS, C, and SP prospect):

 

CF Hicks

SS Drew

C Mauer

1B Parmalee

DH Doumit

LF Plouffe

RF Arcia

3B Sano

2B Rosario

 

SP Worley

SP Diamond

SP Gibson

SP May

SP Meyer

 

I think the biggest issue is your question as to whether or not we will need starting pitching in 2014. There's a saying among propsect hounds that there's no such thing as a pitching propsect. While I like both Meyer and May, I'd say that the odds are very good that one of those two never amounts to anything at the ML level (though I think at this point, both are far enough along to get a shot). I'm also not sold that Diamond will ever again come close to what he did this season. This is why I'd strongly suggest still prusing Sanchez or Jackson. Odds are good we will need at least one of them to help solidify the rotation come 2014/15. As well, Rosario will be in AA come 2014. He's not going to skip AA and AAA. Same with Sano.

 

I do agree whole heartedly that the Twins are going to need to address the middle so that they have something come 2014/15. I'm not yet convinced just yet that Dozier is going to be a bust, but even if he's not, that's one of the two positions, and most likely 2nd. I like the Stephen Drew idea (I've said the same myself), but I'll be mildly surprised if he gets a 2 year deal, much less a 3 year deal, and whether we like it or not, there's not guarantee he bounces back.

 

Personally, I'd be looking at drafting college pitching like Appel (or some other college pitcher) come June and stashing them in AA. I'd trade Morneau at the deadline for a strong MI prospect that can help in 2014. Trading Willingham is going to have more to do with whether or not Arcia, Hicks, and Benson are ready. Two of the three of them are going to have to be if Morneau gets traded (as Parmalee shifts to first), and all 3 will have to be ready to send Willingham away in 2014.

[kab21]

Did ANYONE have trading both Span and Revere in their blueprint?????

 

I do know that I heard one or more commenters say that throughout the last several months. Of course, one hears just about anything and everything around here.

 

I have to re-think things now, certainly.

 

If I thought that Revere was worth Worley and May then I would have traded both of them also. So far it's been a good offseason. getting a good starter is still the top priority and hopefully they add something in the MI and/or a 7th inning guy during the rest of the offseason.

[JP3700]

Let me start off by saying that I'd like to sign Sanchez and Marcum and call it a day, but that doesn't look like a possibility, so I decided to take a different approach. Now that the Span and Revere trades are out of the way, these would be my corresponding moves.....

 

Sign Stephen Drew to a three year, $25 million contract.

Year 1: $7.5 million

Year 2: $8.5 million

Year 3: $9 million

 

Sign Andres Torres to a one year, $1 million contract, with up to $500,000 in incentives

 

Sign Carlos Villanueva to a one year, $5 million contract. Includes a second year club option of $8 million, with a $1 million buyout.

 

Sign Jair Jurrjens to a one year, $5 million contract.

 

CF Andres Torres 1M

SS Stephen Drew 7.5M

C Joe Mauer 23M

LF Josh Willingham 7M

1B Justin Morneau 14M

DH Ryan Doumit 3.5M

3B Trevor Plouffe

RF Chris Parmelee

2B Brian Dozier

 

IF Jamey Carroll 3.75M

Utility Eduardo Escobar

OF Darin Mastroianni

C Drew Butera

 

Scott Diamond

Vance Worley

Carlos Villanueva 5M

Jair Jurrjens 5M

Liam Hendriks

 

Glen Perkins 2.5M

Jared Burton 2M

Brian Duensing 1.5M

Casey Fien

Tyler Robertson

Josh Roenicke

Ryan Pressly

 

Nick Blackburn 5.5M

Matt Capps .25M

 

Why?

 

Now that we have a young core of starting pitching, I wanted to address the shortstop position. Sure, giving $25 million to a guy coming off a major injury is risky, but I'm buying his production prior to the injury and late in the 2012 season. If he performs at or near his ability, $25 million over three years would be a bargain.

 

With the Andres Torres signing, I'm essentially investing an additional $1 - 1.5 million into the development of Aaron Hicks. Torres is coming off 2 down years, but he can still get on base a third of the time, steal some bases and play a good center field. He and Mastro would compete for the starting gig.

 

I went after Villanueva and Jurrjens because of the upside. Villanueva wants to find a place where he can start and I see him as a poor man's Shaun Marcum. The big knock on him is that he gives up a healthy amount of long balls (especially to left handed batters). That leads me to believe that Target Field would be a good fit for him. As for Jurrjens, he is coming off a horrific year, but he's had success in the past. Another reason why I like him is because he still has one more arbitration year. If either pitcher pitches well, they could serve as good trade chips, especially with the extra year of control with the club option and arbitration.

 

This roster would have a salary of roughly $88 million, which is about where I think it will be once all is said and done. There should be a healthy amount of trade chips with Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and possibly Villanueva and/or Jurrjens. Assuming all these players are either traded or not re signed, let's take a look at 2014 (not including possible returns from trades).....

 

C Joe Mauer

1B Chris Parmelee

2B Brian Dozier

3B Trevor Plouffe

SS Stephen Drew

LF Joe Benson

CF Aaron Hicks

RF Oswaldo Arcia

DH

 

C/OF Chris Herrmann

IF Eduardo Escobar

OF Darin Mastroianni

 

 

Kyle Gibson

Scott Diamond

Vance Worley

Trevor May

Liam Hendriks

B.J. Hermsen

Pedro Hernandez

Alex Meyer

 

Glen Perkins

Jared Burton

Brian Duensing

 

With less than $40 million committed to payroll and only 3 players eligible for arbitration, that leaves a lot of room to add around the young talent.