Front Page: Buxton's Bad Breaks, and the (Futile) Search for Answers

[ewen21]

Substantially lower offensive production?

Kepler signed his extension before his offensive breakout this year.

His previous 3 seasons OPS+ were 97,95, and 96.

If you toss out last season, when something clearly wasn't right with Buxton all year, he'll have a better 3 season OPS+ than Kepler had.

 

Even if you INCLUDE last year, Buxton has a chance to get his career OPS+ within 5% of what Kepler's was going into his extension talks.

.

 

Toss out last year because something wasn't right with him?

 

That doesn't work in sports. We aren't at the roulette wheel.

 

Let's talk about what last year was: He had migraine issues and a concussion. The Twins cannot ignore these issues as they continue to mount

[Steve Lein]

To play contrarian, he has missed time on several occasions from running into walls. In these past 2 years he just didn't get placed on the IL and missed only a few games:

 

April 3rd through 5th (pinch ran on the 3rd) -> http://www.startribune.com/postgame-buxton-bruises-his-back-by-colliding-with-center-field-wall/508040142/,

 

May 28th & 29th -> https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-slams-into-wall-leaves-game

 

May 27th, 2018 -> https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/buxton-leaves-game-with-injury-c2087940783

 

My 4th, 2017 (missed 2 days) -> https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/byron-buxton-exits-game-due-to-injury-c228309144

 

July 8th, 2016 (missed basically 3 weeks) -> (http://www.espn.com/espn/wire/_/section/mlb/id/16905241

 

He's gotten lucky that these recent events haven't put him out longer, in my opinion. The events mentioned in the article I agree are mostly unlucky, but he continues to walk a very tight rope that he has fallen off of several times already when it comes to walls. 

[markos]

 

To play contrarian, he has missed time on several occasions from running into walls. In these past 2 years he just didn't get placed on the IL and missed only a few games:

 

April 3rd through 5th (pinch ran on the 3rd) -> http://www.startribune.com/postgame-buxton-bruises-his-back-by-colliding-with-center-field-wall/508040142/,

 

May 28th & 29th -> https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-slams-into-wall-leaves-game

 

May 27th, 2018 -> https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/buxton-leaves-game-with-injury-c2087940783

 

My 4th, 2017 (missed 2 days) -> https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/byron-buxton-exits-game-due-to-injury-c228309144

 

July 8th, 2016 (missed basically 3 weeks) -> (http://www.espn.com/espn/wire/_/section/mlb/id/16905241

 

He's gotten lucky that these recent events haven't put him out longer, in my opinion. The events mentioned in the article I agree are mostly unlucky, but he continues to walk a very tight rope that he has fallen off of several times already when it comes to walls. 

He also get pulled out of the playoff game in 2017 after colliding with the wall early in the game. I don't know if that would have led to a IL stint had the Twins won that game, but it should be noted.

[yarnivek1972]

Like I said, no evidence that he’s evolved. He’s been luckier over some of that span.

 

I also agree that “reckless” isn’t the word to use when describing his collisions. Avoidable is.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Like I said, no evidence that he’s evolved. He’s been luckier over some of that span.

I also agree that “reckless” isn’t the word to use when describing his collisions. Avoidable is.

Nelson Cruz could've probably avoided hurting his wrist if he swung less hard. Mitch Garver could avoid foul tips exposing him to concussion risk if he moved to another position.

 

Do you want to take away the parts of these guys' games that primarily fuel their value in the name of lowering risk that is always going to be inherent to playing this game at the highest level? 

[ewen21]

Nelson Cruz could've probably avoided hurting his wrist if he swung less hard. Mitch Garver could avoid foul tips exposing him to concussion risk if he moved to another position.

 

Do you want to take away the parts of these guys' games that primarily fuel their value in the name of lowering risk that is always going to be inherent to playing this game at the highest level?

And I could get killed crossing the street.

[yarnivek1972]

Nelson Cruz could've probably avoided hurting his wrist if he swung less hard. Mitch Garver could avoid foul tips exposing him to concussion risk if he moved to another position.

 

Do you want to take away the parts of these guys' games that primarily fuel their value in the name of lowering risk that is always going to be inherent to playing this game at the highest level?

Lots of guys play CF. A lot of them even play it pretty well. They don’t land on the DL 2-3 times per year. Every year. There’s this one guy. He plays in LA. And another, I think just down I 35 a ways.

[mikelink45]

I have put up the Blog I promised - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11601-%7B%3F%7D/

I hope you enjoy the historic comparison.

 

[Nick Nelson]

Great stuff mike! That's an awesome historical comp.

 

Also, I loved this line: "You can not legislate injuries. No rules can eliminate the dangers for men who are taught to always play hard." Perfectly stated. 

[jkcarew]

 

Great stuff mike! That's an awesome historical comp.

 

Also, I loved this line: "You can not legislate injuries. No rules can eliminate the dangers for men who are taught to always play hard." Perfectly stated. 

The notion that the injuries related to Buxton's play in the outfield are the inevitable result of "playing hard" is beyond simplistic. There is a real and material aspect that impacts the likelihood of injury...they are abilities. One is the ability to be aware of your surroundings, even when things are happening fast around you. Another is the ability to comprehend the difference between good risks and bad risks. Buxton does not consistently demonstrate these abilities and it absolutely 100% contributes to his issues.

 

Quarterbacks who looks like they're going to be killed, but are always able to get down at the last second...are they just lucky?...or are they not playing hard...or are they just good at recognizing where they (and others) are as the play unfolds? Quarterbacks who run out of bounds on first and second down, rather than going for the extra yards...are they not playing hard? Or are they just smart?

 

On Wednesday against Atlanta, Jake Cave made an extremely 'hard'/aggressive play on a ball hit over the fence. He made very hard contact with the wall. But, he wasn't injured and it wasn't the result of good luck. He went after the ball in an effective way (if the ball had been hit just a couple of feet shorter, he would have caught it)...but, he did so in a manner that protected his limbs and his head...he did so in a way that mitigated the risk/likelihood of injury. He could make that exact same attempt...successfully making the play on occasion...100 times without sustaining an injury beyond sore ribs.