Article: Central Intelligence: Indians Vulnerable

[Cody Christie]

Cleveland has won the AL Central for three consecutive years, but that streak could come to an end this year. The Indians are coming off a year where they had a club-record $135 million payroll. Ownership decided it was time for a mass exodus of players, so there will be a lot of new faces in the Cleveland line-up.

 

Could this open the division to other foes? Fans will have to wait to find out.Key Additions: Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers

Santana played his first eight big league seasons in Cleveland before signing a three-year $60 million deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies traded him back to the Indians this off-season in a deal that sent Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle. Santana offers some more line-up flexibility since he is a switch-hitter and he can play multiple positions.

 

Jake Bauers was also part of the Santana trade. He could start the year in the Indians outfield or split time with Santana at first base. He’s only 23 years old and he hit 11 home runs last year for Tampa. Since Tampa was willing to part with him, one has to wonder if they know something that others do not.

 

Key Departures: Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, Yandy Diaz, Rajai Davis, Brandon Guyer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Donaldson, Melky Cabrera, Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, and Josh Tomlin.

 

A team could field a pretty good squad with the players that left the Indians from the end of last season. Heck, you might be able to win a Wild Card spot with this crew. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were key late inning pieces for the Cleveland’s recent success. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez will drive the offense but there are plenty of holes in the rest of the line-up.

 

What if one of their key pieces gets hurt? This club might not score a ton of runs and they are going to rely on their strong starting staff to keep games close.

 

Potential X-Factors: Trevor Bauer

Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are going to be a strong one-two punch at the top of the rotation, but Trevor Bauer could be a difference maker as the club’s number three pitcher. He does some outlandish things on social media and has hurt his hand with a drone, but he could put together some solid numbers that help to prove he belongs with the top two Indians arms.

 

FanGraphs Projected 2019 Record: 92-70

My Projected 2019 Record: 87-76 (Win Game 163 against the Twins)

 

2018 Record: 91-71 (1^st Place AL Central, Lost ALDS to Astros)

2017 Record: 102-60, (1^st Place AL Central, Lost ALDS to Yankees)

2016 Record: 94-67, (1^st Place in the AL Central, Lost World Series to Cubs)

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

It sure would be nice for our Twins to put the Cleveland baseballers in their place and knock them down a peg in 2019. I suppose sustained excellence will naturally cause jealousy from the also rans. Although there has been an aroma of arrogance coming from Clevaland's fans this winter. The whole '2018 was boring because we had no competition' vibe is annoying.

[Channing1964]

I have been annoyed with them for longer than I care to admit. Nothing would make me happier than to knock them off their smug perch and watch them pout all winter.

[Tom Froemming]

Their rotation is incredible. Their top four starters area all being drafted above Jose Berrios on average in fantasy leagues this year. Their fifth guy, Shane Bieber, had a 3.23 FIP and 5.13 K:BB ratio in his rookie season last year (Berrios was at 3.90 FIP and 3.31 K:BB).

 

The rumors that they were shopping a starter this offseason makes me hope that if they stumble to a slow start the front office/ownership will be anxious to sell. Otherwise, it's tough to see a team with this good of a staff win fewer than 90 games in this division. Their lineup isn't great, but there's a lot of bad pitching in the AL Central I think they'll squeeze out enough runs more often than not.

[howieramone2]

They won 11 less games than 2017 and Dolan the owner recently stated they were losing money. Last I looked payroll is at 112M. When a team starts dumping salaries, it's usually all over. Also, it was certainly no secret that Kluber and Bauer were both available this offseason.

[Vanimal46]

I think this 'Vulnerable' storyline is totally overblown with this team. As Tom said their rotation is incredible. They don't have to try all that hard to get 90 wins with that rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They won 11 less games than 2017 and Dolan the owner recently stated they were losing money. Last I looked payroll is at 112M. When a team starts dumping salaries, it's usually all over. Also, it was certainly no secret that Kluber and Bauer were both available this offseason.

102 win teams generally regress in the win column. And the 2018 Cleveland club had little incentive to try to win that many again -- as it was, they still won the division by 13 games with only 91 wins.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock into the owner's assessment -- that's pretty standard fare for MLB owners, who want to appear benevolent in public. Likewise, Kluber and Bauer being available for a high asking price doesn't mean much either.

 

Obviously they weren't comfortable keeping the opening day payroll around $130 mil but neither were the Twins. I don't see them slashing it it further quite yet -- in fact, if they are in the race I wouldn't be surprised to see them add salary in-season as they did several times in recent years.

[howieramone2]

 

102 win teams generally regress in the win column. And the 2018 Cleveland club had little incentive to try to win that many again -- as it was, they still won the division by 13 games with only 91 wins.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock into the owner's assessment -- that's pretty standard fare for MLB owners, who want to appear benevolent in public. Likewise, Kluber and Bauer being available for a high asking price doesn't mean much either.

 

Obviously they weren't comfortable keeping the opening day payroll around $130 mil but neither were the Twins. I don't see them slashing it it further quite yet -- in fact, if they are in the race I wouldn't be surprised to see them add salary in-season as they did several times in recent years.

 So they won 11 less games because teams that win 102 games generally regress and they had no incentive to win as many in 2018. Sounds to me, you're just making excuses. I put a lot of stock in the owner's assessment, and there is no standard fare for MLB owners. Kluber and Bauer being available may not mean much to you, but it certainly does to them, their teammates, and Cleveland fans.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 So they won 11 less games because teams that win 102 games generally regress and they had no incentive to win as many in 2018. Sounds to me, you're just making excuses.

Does a guy who hits 50 HR one season, and only 40 HR the next, need an "excuse" to explain the drop? Does it necessarily mean he had less talent in power hitting the second season?

 

I subjectively agree the 2018 Indians weren't as good as the 2017 team, but I don't think "minus 11 wins" is necessarily an accurate measure of that drop.

 

I put a lot of stock in the owner's assessment, and there is no standard fare for MLB owners.

Has any MLB owner ever publicly stated how much money they made from their team? Yes, it's pretty standard for MLB owners to say they're losing money, or at best, breaking even.

 

That's not to say Cleveland is going to go on a spending spree now -- but I'm guessing they are fairly comfortable staying at their current level, and wouldn't need a whole lot of incentive to push up to 2017-2018 levels again. The owner crying poor certainly doesn't convince me otherwise.

[howieramone2]

 

Does a guy who hits 50 HR one season, and only 40 HR the next, need an "excuse" to explain the drop? Does it necessarily mean he had less talent in power hitting the second season?

 

I subjectively agree the 2018 Indians weren't as good as the 2017 team, but I don't think "minus 11 wins" is necessarily an accurate measure of that drop.

 

Has any MLB owner ever publicly stated how much money they made from their team? Yes, it's pretty standard for MLB owners to say they're losing money, or at best, breaking even.

 

That's not to say Cleveland is going to go on a spending spree now -- but I'm guessing they are fairly comfortable staying at their current level, and wouldn't need a whole lot of incentive to push up to 2017-2018 levels again. The owner crying poor certainly doesn't convince me otherwise.

You don't read MLBTR do you? They are convinced. Last I looked they are at 112M. Also, rarely have I heard an owner stating they are losing money. Last time was the pizza guy in Detroit who lost 7M one year.

[Channing1964]

I dont care what they do as long as we kick their A$$es 16 more tumes in 2019.