Article: The Discard Pile

[ewen21]

 

Do me a favor. Grab a dart and throw it at a list of MLB teams three times. Then compare the results of those teams over a full decade if you like. Pay close attention to the 1st round, since 70% of your success stories will be those guys. For recent drafts, use the prospect rankings. They are a very reliable take on things. Be fair. For example, adjust for the fact that Royce Lewis, #8 on BA's list, was unavailable to these other teams. First round draft order is immensely important in this comparative analysis. For later round picks, just add up the number of players who've made it and produced, say 1 WAR or more, and add up cumulative WAR for each team from these later round selections. You won't be doing much arithmetic. Throw out that 30 WAR outlier though, the lucky pick is not telling us anything. You learn more from the Rosario and the Rogers type about talent evaluation skill. 

 

The point I'm making is that drafting has not been a bugaboo for a long time. Development? Yes, and this is an area that Falvey has aggressively prioritized in the past year. It may be fixed already. It's futile to ignore what's happening presently.

Pretty much what I said.  I also said things don't look good ODAY and maybe it emerges this year.

 

We aren't too far off

[laloesch]

 

To me it says they are in the belief that their core is strong enough to just add pieces. I'm not sure I agree with that. It's a book or bust scenario for me.

 

I think your right on. It appears that they are still heavily betting on Sano and Buxton rebounding and becoming the core of this team that we all dreamed they could be minus the inconsistencies. That's a BIG gamble and a leap of faith if you ask me. It looks to me that Falvey and Levine are just content adding a few cheap pieces (albeit good bargains), thereby saving the owner a few bucks in the interim and just seeing how things go. I'm not impressed with this strategy at all, especially now that Mauer is officially off the books. 

 

Don't get me wrong I'm encouraged that both Sano and Buxton appear to be heading in the right direction this off-season with their conditioning, but will that help them overcome their deficiencies at the plate?  Only time will tell.

 

Now that Mauer is gone the Twins have a MASSIVE hole in the lineup regardless of whether people liked him and his plate approach or not. These three additions are at best stop gap measures, nothing more.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think your right on. It appears that they are still heavily betting on Sano and Buxton rebounding and becoming the core of this team that we all dreamed they could be minus the inconsistencies. That's a BIG gamble and a leap of faith if you ask me. It looks to me that Falvey and Levine are just content adding a few cheap pieces (albeit good bargains), thereby saving the owner a few bucks in the interim and just seeing how things go. I'm not impressed with this strategy at all, especially now that Mauer is officially off the books.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm encouraged that both Sano and Buxton appear to be heading in the right direction this off-season with their conditioning, but will that help them overcome their deficiencies at the plate? Only time will tell.

 

Now that Mauer is gone the Twins have a MASSIVE hole in the lineup regardless of whether people liked him and his plate approach or not. These three additions are at best stop gap measures, nothing more.

agreed: we need to define “core”. Last I saw Buxton and Sano don’t pitch. If there was belief in Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco and Berrios, wouldn’t there be more supplement to them than Perez and Parker?

 

There’s a big gap in narrative too. The FO has thrown Sano and Buxton under the bus already. We’re not going ‘all in’ until the core makes the next step, doesn’t exude a ton of confidence to me...

Edited February 14, 2019 by Sconnie