2019 Payroll

[Lonestar]

The Twins’ 2018 opening day payroll was $128,713,226. How much will they have available to spend for 2019?

First they will have to cover the dead weight: $7.95M for Hughes, Santana, and Morrison.

Then they have the guaranteed contracts: $24.5M Castro ($8M), Pineda ($8M), Reed ($8.5M).

Then there are the arbitration candidates: $38.2M for Gibson ($11M), Odorizzi ($9M), Rosario ($7M), Kepler as Super 2 ($4M), Adrianza ($2M), Sano ($2.5M), Buxton ($1.5M), and May ($1.2M). That’s a total of $76.05M. YMMV and I claim no expertise (none) in estimating arbitration or extension salaries.  Let’s not quibble about anything under $1M.

Then there’s $5.4M for 9 pre-arbitration players : Polanco, Garver, Cave, Berrios, Hildenberger, Rodgers, and three relievers TBD.

If next year’s payroll is $130M, that leaves $53.95M to sign a starting pitcher, a shutdown reliever, a 2B or SS (wherever Polanco does not play), and a 3B or 1B (wherever Sano doesn’t play) and a DH that can “replace” Sano or Buxton if they are optioned or otherwise sidelined. First-year extension premiums (if any) would have to come out of that remainder, also.

If the Twins do not sign a free agent for any one of those 5 positions, the remainder would be reduced by approximately $.6M. For example, Tyler Austin is not counted above but could be part of the solution.

 

Now ... How would you spend that $53.95M?

Edited September 21, 2018 by Lonestar

[Mr. Brooks]

Payroll won't be anywhere near that again (IMO).

The Twins have been on record many times as maxing out payroll at 50% of revenue.

The reason it went up roughly 25 million this year was because they (along with every team) received a one time payment of $50 million (50% being $25 million) from the sale of BAMTech.

[Danchat]

I have no idea who to sign at this point, but I'll make the prediction that next year's payroll will be in the $120Ms ($120-130M), despite what others might say. I think they'll find a way to fill up the $53M or so that's been left open.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll predict 100-105....and the FAs will look a lot like this year, rental types that won't move the needle.

[yarnivek1972]

I think your predictions for Gibson, Rosario and Kepler are WAY high. Gibson sported an ERA north of 5 the last two years and it could very easily nudge over 4 this year. He’s not getting 8 figures. That would almost triple his salary.

 

When Mike Trout hit arb, he signed his current contract. It paid him $5.5 mil in his first arb season. That was in 2015. Eddie Rosario is not Mike Trout. Nor is Max Kepler. Rosario $2.5 tops IMO. Kepler maybe like $1.5 - $1.7 mil.

[mngopherguy]

Payroll will probably be about 110 million.  The Twins will sign relief pitchers and a bat to replace Morrison.  Everything else will be from within, so I don't expect a lot in 2019.