Jason Vargas

[J-Dog Dungan]

He is on waivers. Any chance the Twins claim him? and if they do, what are the chances that they work out a trade with the Mariners?

[JP3700]

Great post.. I was thinking the same thing earlier when I heard about it. The twins have first crack at him due to their record. I don't think it would hurt to at least put in the claim and see what happens. Find out what they want for him. Worst case they pull him off waivers. He has 1 year of team control after this season and if we can get him for cheap we might be able to make a Paul Maholm type trade next year at the deadline.

[jokin]

Great post.. I was thinking the same thing earlier when I heard about it. The twins have first crack at him due to their record. I don't think it would hurt to at least put in the claim and see what happens. Find out what they want for him. Worst case they pull him off waivers. He has 1 year of team control after this season and if we can get him for cheap we might be able to make a Paul Maholm type trade next year at the deadline.

 

Exactly spot on. I can't understand why there was any disagreement when discussing this option earlier this evening. The Twins are in the perfect position to pick up outright bargains relative to pursuing pitchers in the FA market (who of course, are accompanied by their over-promising agents). Given the demonstrated trade value for veterans in July and August, they could already have bolstered and/or set up 2 or 3 legitimate SPs for the 2013 staff with little lost except B- or lower prospects to teams who have been anxiously prioritizing the shedding of payroll anchors on their 2012 rosters. By not participating in this current buyer's market, they have set themselves up to be outbid in the offseason for anything other than Marquis-level retreads, never-weres or never-wills. (I'd definitely pass on Millwood, too old and Scott Boras as an agent)

 

As I've written previously, missing out on Maholm and others- with the chance of flipping or keeping them after a one-year deal was a huge overlook by the Twins this past season.

[jokin]

He is on waivers. Any chance the Twins claim him? and if they do, what are the chances that they work out a trade with the Mariners?

 

Glunn, myself and others discussed the Mariners as a trade partner last week during the Mariners sweep of the Twins. Gotta think you could get 3 superior arms ( a combination of a ML pitcher like Vargas and a prospect or two (How about James Paxton and Carter Capps/Stephen Pryor?) from the relatively pitching-rich Mariners in exchange for very little, the Mariners need bats, some combination involving Revere and/or Plouffe/Parmelee with another high-ceiling Class A prospect thrown in?

[Riverbrian]

He is on waivers. Any chance the Twins claim him? and if they do, what are the chances that they work out a trade with the Mariners?

 

Glunn, myself and others discussed the Mariners as a trade partner last week during the Mariners sweep of the Twins. Gotta think you could get 3 superior arms ( a combination of a ML pitcher like Vargas and a prospect or two (How about James Paxton and Carter Capps/Stephen Pryor?) from the relatively pitching-rich Mariners in exchange for very little, the Mariners need bats, some combination involving Revere and/or Plouffe/Parmelee with another high-ceiling Class A prospect thrown in?

 

I don't see the Mariners giving up any of those top 3 arms. Hultzen, Walker and Paxton are the ticket back to contention.

 

Yes they will be looking for hitting but they will acquire it without giving up the arms or else they will be spinning their wheels.

 

Vargas... On the other hand... They will give him up for offense. No doubt.

[Seth Stohs]

Vargas isn't exactly a 'cheap' option. The soft-tosser is projected to make $8.1 million in 2013 according to MLB Trade Rumors. I'm not saying he's not worth it, and he would likely be the Twins top starter today, but I think I'd rather go the free agent way since it wouldn't require giving up anything in return.

[Winston Smith]

The easy part is we have the first claim and the Mariners are in town. Ryan just needs to walk into the Mariners box and make a deal before he even makes the claim. If he is not willing to give up something for him and the chance to kick start improving the rotation for next year I'm at a loss as to why. Nothing is free you give up something to get it, the cost of quality FA pitching is very high and his salary next year will fit in the Pavano 8m slot. DO something please!

[DaveW]

Id give them Benson for him. Actually nevermind.

I'm not sure who I would give up, but it wouldn't be for anyone of significant value.

[Winston Smith]

Vargas isn't exactly a 'cheap' option. The soft-tosser is projected to make $8.1 million in 2013 according to MLB Trade Rumors. I'm not saying he's not worth it, and he would likely be the Twins top starter today, but I think I'd rather go the free agent way since it wouldn't require giving up anything in return.

 

Which free agent pitchers would you put at the level of Vargas? I don't see a lot of solid starters on the market, a lot of so so guys but not a lot of quality.

How much do you expect the quality guys to cost and will they have to over pay for those guys to get them to sign with a last place team?

Just because we want a free agent doesn't mean they will want us. After all a bird in the hand.........

[Steve Penz]

Vargas isn't exactly a 'cheap' option. The soft-tosser is projected to make $8.1 million in 2013 according to MLB Trade Rumors. I'm not saying he's not worth it, and he would likely be the Twins top starter today, but I think I'd rather go the free agent way since it wouldn't require giving up anything in return.

 

Which free agent pitchers would you put at the level of Vargas? I don't see a lot of solid starters on the market, a lot of so so guys but not a lot of quality.

How much do you expect the quality guys to cost and will they have to over pay for those guys to get them to sign with a last place team?

Just because we want a free agent doesn't mean they will want us. After all a bird in the hand.........

 

It is hard not to agree with Mr. Smith. We have first crack. Take it. Please go after him. I think he has great stats for a pitcher on team that does not score runs.

[nicksaviking]

Vargas is a one-hit wonder. No thanks, I don't have interest in any free agents or trades for starters making that kind of money with stats that suspicious. This guy is time bomb waiting to explode in another uniform, he doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of HR. His splits away from Safeco are alarming. 2 points higher ERA away and he's given up 23 HR on the road compared to 6 at home this year. Do the Twins really want a guy who is 3rd in the league in HR allowed when he spends half of his time at Safeco? If the Twins are going to be giving a pitcher $8 million next year, he better be able to top a 6.0 K/9. Vargas has disaster written all over him for who ever acquires this journyman having a career year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Vargas is a one-hit wonder. No thanks, I don't have interest in any free agents or trades for starters making that kind of money with stats that suspicious. This guy is time bomb waiting to explode in another uniform, he doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of HR. His splits away from Safeco are alarming. 2 points higher ERA away and he's given up 23 HR on the road compared to 6 at home this year. Do the Twins really want a guy who is 3rd in the league in HR allowed when he spends half of his time at Safeco? If the Twins are going to be giving a pitcher $8 million next year, he better be able to top a 6.0 K/9. Vargas has disaster written all over him for who ever acquires this journyman having a career year.

 

Agreed. The guy might have success at TF based on his success at Safeco but it's far from a given. He's having a good year with pretty mediocre (or bad) peripherals.

 

Vargas is the type of guy you pick up on the cheap after he posts a 4.50 ERA and then you cross your fingers, hoping for a rebound. He's not the guy you pick up after a 3.50 ERA because he's going to be overpaid and he's almost certainly going to regress.

[Steve Penz]

Vargas is a one-hit wonder. No thanks, I don't have interest in any free agents or trades for starters making that kind of money with stats that suspicious. This guy is time bomb waiting to explode in another uniform, he doesn't strike anyone out and gives up a ton of HR. His splits away from Safeco are alarming. 2 points higher ERA away and he's given up 23 HR on the road compared to 6 at home this year. Do the Twins really want a guy who is 3rd in the league in HR allowed when he spends half of his time at Safeco? If the Twins are going to be giving a pitcher $8 million next year, he better be able to top a 6.0 K/9. Vargas has disaster written all over him for who ever acquires this journyman having a career year.

 

Agreed. The guy might have success at TF based on his success at Safeco but it's far from a given. He's having a good year with pretty mediocre (or bad) peripherals.

 

Vargas is the type of guy you pick up on the cheap after he posts a 4.50 ERA and then you cross your fingers, hoping for a rebound. He's not the guy you pick up after a 3.50 ERA because he's going to be overpaid and he's almost certainly going to regress.

 

I can see what you are saying. What are we looking at having to give up/pay for him? Let me do some homework before getting to far ahead of myself.

 

My issue is that I have serious concerns about the twins getting any pitching this off season. Generally I am optimistic and here I remain very worried. Vargas is no savior and has questionable #s but the innings are good and the whip seems to be in the ballpark. If they get him for a reasonable deal then that is one decent piece and they can go out and continue looking for better in the off season. If they don't do something like this then what will they do?

[Winston Smith]

With our outstanding starting rotation it might be hard to find a spot for Vargas. You guys do understand we have the worst starting pitching in the majors?

[Docsilly]

He's 6-1 in his last 10 starts with a 2.54 ERA. Should reallly be a no-brainer. Take over Pavano's salary. Who cares about the number of HRs as long as he gets outs. Bert Blyleven gave up a lot of HRs too and he's in the HOF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With our outstanding starting rotation it might be hard to find a spot for Vargas. You guys do understand we have the worst starting pitching in the majors?

 

It has less to do with the Twins rotation and everything to do with buying high on Vargas. You're paying for a guy who will almost certainly regress from his current numbers but the Mariners will almost certainly expect a return in line with his current performance. That's a bad baseball decision.

 

The Mariners would probably start the discussion with Parmelee. That's not a place the Twins should consider going at this point. Not for one year of a guy who is going to regress.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My issue is that I have serious concerns about the twins getting any pitching this off season. Generally I am optimistic and here I remain very worried. Vargas is no savior and has questionable #s but the innings are good and the whip seems to be in the ballpark. If they get him for a reasonable deal then that is one decent piece and they can go out and continue looking for better in the off season. If they don't do something like this then what will they do?

 

With Marcum, Liriano, Greinke, Jackson, Sanchez, and others hitting the FA market this winter, there is really no excuse for the Twins not to pick up one of those guys in the $12-15m per year range in a 3-5 year deal. They have the money and they have the need. History be damned, they need to pick up one of those guys.

[Winston Smith]

My issue is that I have serious concerns about the twins getting any pitching this off season. Generally I am optimistic and here I remain very worried. Vargas is no savior and has questionable #s but the innings are good and the whip seems to be in the ballpark. If they get him for a reasonable deal then that is one decent piece and they can go out and continue looking for better in the off season. If they don't do something like this then what will they do?

 

With Marcum, Liriano, Greinke, Jackson, Sanchez, and others hitting the FA market this winter, there is really no excuse for the Twins not to pick up one of those guys in the $12-15m per year range in a 3-5 year deal. They have the money and they have the need. History be damned, they need to pick up one of those guys.

 

There may not be a good excuse for not signing one of them but TR has already said that it's not the way he plans to go. Unless Ryan suddenly decides to change his MO and spend big in free agency for the first time how else do you fill out the rotation?

[nicksaviking]

My issue is that I have serious concerns about the twins getting any pitching this off season. Generally I am optimistic and here I remain very worried. Vargas is no savior and has questionable #s but the innings are good and the whip seems to be in the ballpark. If they get him for a reasonable deal then that is one decent piece and they can go out and continue looking for better in the off season. If they don't do something like this then what will they do?

 

With Marcum, Liriano, Greinke, Jackson, Sanchez, and others hitting the FA market this winter, there is really no excuse for the Twins not to pick up one of those guys in the $12-15m per year range in a 3-5 year deal. They have the money and they have the need. History be damned, they need to pick up one of those guys.

 

There may not be a good excuse for not signing one of them but TR has already said that it's not the way he plans to go. Unless Ryan suddenly decides to change his MO and spend big in free agency for the first time how else do you fill out the rotation?

 

If you're going to be making trades, it better be for younger and higher upside arms. Why waste more time with another nobody like Vargas AND give up players because of a percieved higher value? Ryan isn't going to pay for free agents just to spend money, but by the same token, he shouldn't be making trades just for the sake of making trades. If you get Vargas, his salary is going to force the club to look at him as a top of the rotation arm, yet every red flag this year, and everything that he has done previous to 2012 points to him being a #5. That's the same problem the Twins have faced the last two years. They have guys they expected to perform as a 1-2 starter and and up getting #5 production. It's crippling the team and it needs to stop.

[jokin]

With our outstanding starting rotation it might be hard to find a spot for Vargas. You guys do understand we have the worst starting pitching in the majors?

 

It has less to do with the Twins rotation and everything to do with buying high on Vargas. You're paying for a guy who will almost certainly regress from his current numbers but the Mariners will almost certainly expect a return in line with his current performance. That's a bad baseball decision.

 

The Mariners would probably start the discussion with Parmelee. That's not a place the Twins should consider going at this point. Not for one year of a guy who is going to regress.

 

If the Mariners are starting the discussion with Parmelee, it largely explains why they haven't been able to move him yet.

[jokin]

My issue is that I have serious concerns about the twins getting any pitching this off season. Generally I am optimistic and here I remain very worried. Vargas is no savior and has questionable #s but the innings are good and the whip seems to be in the ballpark. If they get him for a reasonable deal then that is one decent piece and they can go out and continue looking for better in the off season. If they don't do something like this then what will they do?

 

With Marcum, Liriano, Greinke, Jackson, Sanchez, and others hitting the FA market this winter, there is really no excuse for the Twins not to pick up one of those guys in the $12-15m per year range in a 3-5 year deal. They have the money and they have the need. History be damned, they need to pick up one of those guys.

 

There may not be a good excuse for not signing one of them but TR has already said that it's not the way he plans to go. Unless Ryan suddenly decides to change his MO and spend big in free agency for the first time how else do you fill out the rotation?

 

If you're going to be making trades, it better be for younger and higher upside arms. Why waste more time with another nobody like Vargas AND give up players because of a percieved higher value? Ryan isn't going to pay for free agents just to spend money, but by the same token, he shouldn't be making trades just for the sake of making trades. If you get Vargas, his salary is going to force the club to look at him as a top of the rotation arm, yet every red flag this year, and everything that he has done previous to 2012 points to him being a #5. That's the same problem the Twins have faced the last two years. They have guys they expected to perform as a 1-2 starter and and up getting #5 production. It's crippling the team and it needs to stop.

 

And yet, you ignore the obvious facts that Vargas: 1) would immediately be better than anyone that the Twins currently control and project to start in 2013, 2) could be acquired without giving up much in return to a motivated seller, 3) would be highly incentivized to perform well in his FA-year, 2013, 4) could be a more valuable deadline trading chip than Paul Maholm was this year.

 

This sets up a great high-reward, low-risk, no-brainer opportunity for the Twins

[Brock Beauchamp]

And yet, you ignore the obvious facts that Vargas: 1) would immediately be better than anyone that the Twins currently control and project to start in 2013, 2) could be acquired without giving up much in return to a motivated seller, 3) would be highly incentivized to perform well in his FA-year, 2013, 4) could be a more valuable deadline trading chip than Paul Maholm was this year.

 

This sets up a great high-reward, low-risk, no-brainer opportunity for the Twins

 

Scott Diamond is better than Jason Vargas.

 

That says a lot about the "potential" of Jason Vargas. At least Scott keeps the ball on the ground to go along with those pedestrian peripherals and he's not riding an unsustainable .250 BABIP to put up that above average ERA.

[nicksaviking]

Vargas is not a high reward guy. He's having an outlier season which is A) going to surely be his career high point, and drive up his arbitration figure for the next year. Saying Vargas is better than anyone the Twins have isn't saying much, but I still don't think it's true. He belongs in the 5th spot of an average rotation, the 4th spot on a poor one, but the Twins would be forced to look at him as a #1 or 2 due to the salary. Having him on the team does more harm than good. Let a playoff team overpay for his mirage 2012 season.

 

Scott Baker, Joe Blanton, Eric Bedard, Kevin Correia, Jorge De La Rosa, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf and Carlos Zambrano. None of these guys get me too excited, but they will all likely be cheaper than Vargas and I don't doubt just as effective while not costing a prospect.

[J-Dog Dungan]

Vargas is not a high reward guy. He's having an outlier season which is A) going to surely be his career high point, and drive up his arbitration figure for the next year. Saying Vargas is better than anyone the Twins have isn't saying much, but I still don't think it's true. He belongs in the 5th spot of an average rotation, the 4th spot on a poor one, but the Twins would be forced to look at him as a #1 or 2 due to the salary. Having him on the team does more harm than good. Let a playoff team overpay for his mirage 2012 season.

 

To name a few, Scott Baker, Joe Blanton, Eric Bedard, Kevin Correia, Jorge De La Rosa, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf and Carlos Zambrano. None of these guys get me too excited, but they will all likely be cheaper than Vargas and I don't doubt just as effective while not costing a prospect.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't include Marquis on this list, mostly because all Twins fans hate him now. Oswalt has seemed a little rusty in his outings with the Rangers and was even demoted to the bullpen. Zambrano seems unlikely because BS/TR have rarely added guys who would be clubhouse distractions. Pavano's pitching days might be done with this most recent injury. But all the other guys the Twins should look at, including Scott Baker.

[jokin]

And yet, you ignore the obvious facts that Vargas: 1) would immediately be better than anyone that the Twins currently control and project to start in 2013, 2) could be acquired without giving up much in return to a motivated seller, 3) would be highly incentivized to perform well in his FA-year, 2013, 4) could be a more valuable deadline trading chip than Paul Maholm was this year.

 

This sets up a great high-reward, low-risk, no-brainer opportunity for the Twins

 

Scott Diamond is better than Jason Vargas.

 

That says a lot about the "potential" of Jason Vargas. At least Scott keeps the ball on the ground to go along with those pedestrian peripherals and he's not riding an unsustainable .250 BABIP to put up that above average ERA.

 

There isn't an argument to made about Vargas' potential, I haven't offered one. He is what he is. A predictable entity. By season-end he will have averaged over 200 innings per year over the last 3 years and get you consistently ~32starts/YR pitching into the 7th inning.

 

By contrast, everything about Diamond says uncertainty. Diamond has been a nice surprise this year, I pull for him and admire how he goes about his business every time out, but he was among the very first cuts in ST this year, which says something about what the Twins thought of him- and how they might be the most surprised of all. That's why I'm surprised you automatically give the nod to a guy with such a small set of data and the high uncertainty that goes with any shot that Diamond has at sustainability of these numbers in 2013. Although he's clearly had a better year than Vargas, his numbers are rapidly regressing as the league builds a book on him- from his ERA nadir of 1.61 on June 9 to the current 3.04 of August 28. And, he's never pitched these numbers of innings before.

 

While I certainly hope that Diamond can build on this season going into next year, I'll take the certainty of Vargas, even pre-2012 numbers (ie, X-BABIP-effect), going into next season, plus the possibilities that he offers as a trading deadline chip in 2013.

 

If the Twins (unfortunately, a big IF by my reasoning) then go to the offseason FA market and get a Sanchez-type, you suddenly have a much more respectable staff, especially if Gibson and Hendriks come through at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There isn't an argument to made about Vargas' potential, I haven't offered one. He is what he is. A predictable entity. By season-end he will have averaged over 200 innings per year over the last 3 years and get you consistently ~32starts/YR pitching into the 7th inning.

 

By contrast, everything about Diamond says uncertainty. Diamond has been a nice surprise this year, I pull for him and admire how he goes about his business every time out, but he was among the very first cuts in ST this year, which says something about what the Twins thought of him- and how they might be the most surprised of all. That's why I'm surprised you automatically give the nod to a guy with such a small set of data and the high uncertainty that goes with any shot that Diamond has at sustainability of these numbers in 2013. Although he's clearly had a better year than Vargas, his numbers are rapidly regressing as the league builds a book on him- from his ERA nadir of 1.61 on June 9 to the current 3.04 of August 28. And, he's never pitched these numbers of innings before.

 

While I certainly hope that Diamond can build on this season going into next year, I'll take the certainty of Vargas, even pre-2012 numbers (ie, X-BABIP-effect), going into next season, plus the possibilities that he offers as a trading deadline chip in 2013.

 

If the Twins (unfortunately, a big IF by my reasoning) then go to the offseason FA market and get a Sanchez-type, you suddenly have a much more respectable staff, especially if Gibson and Hendriks come through at all.

 

The problem with Vargas is that he plays half his games in Seattle and all his games with the Seattle outfield at his back. Almost all his numbers are due to regress in 2013, given that he only keeps 40% of his balls on the ground. Fine for Seattle with the Mariners OF, not quite so fine in Target Field with the Twins outfield.

 

I'm not against the idea of going after a player like Vargas. I actually think it's a good idea. I just don't think Vargas is the right guy because if you remove him from the Pacific Northwest, he could turn into a pretty bad pitcher quickly. He doesn't strike guys out, he lets waaay too many balls be hit in the air, he is riding an artificially low BABIP this season, and he's not cheap in 2013. I think there are far better deals to be had on the market or in trades.

 

There is a reason why his road ERA from 2010-2012 is ~1.75 higher than his home ERA. He's not the type of guy that plays well in a small or mid-sized stadium. In fact, those stadiums will kill a guy like that.

[snepp]

Safeco may be the perfect fit for a guy like Vargas, that park is murder on right handed hitters, especially those that hit the ball in the air.

[jokin]

Vargas is not a high reward guy. He's having an outlier season which is A) going to surely be his career high point, and drive up his arbitration figure for the next year. Saying Vargas is better than anyone the Twins have isn't saying much, but I still don't think it's true. He belongs in the 5th spot of an average rotation, the 4th spot on a poor one, but the Twins would be forced to look at him as a #1 or 2 due to the salary. Having him on the team does more harm than good.*** Let a playoff team overpay for his mirage 2012 season.

 

Scott Baker, Joe Blanton, Eric Bedard, Kevin Correia, Jorge De La Rosa, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf and Carlos Zambrano. None of these guys get me too excited, but they will all likely be cheaper than Vargas and I don't doubt just as effective while not costing a prospect.

 

*** This simply isn't true. Vargas's career numbers BEFORE the "mirage" of 2012 exceed the Twins SP average numbers in virtually every category over the same time span (05-11).

 

Furthermore, here are his non-"mirage" numbers (ie, before 2012), versus the Twins SP averages for this year, 2012:

 

Vargas: ERA 4.19/WHIP 1.29/BAA .257/LOB% 70.3

Twins: ERA 5.50/WHIP 1.50/BAA .293/LOB% 67.1

 

The prospect the Twins would get for Vargas is based on the Mariners desire to rid themselves of $8-10M in salary, there's no way they get anyone very consequential in that transaction (Benson-level or lower?).

[JP3700]

I think some people are looking at this the wrong way. We have the right to make the first claim on him. What happens from there.. We either get him for nothing.. They pull him back.. Or we try to work out a trade. If the mariners ask for too much.. Then just don't complete a trade and the mariners will have to pull him back or just give him to us and we pay for the remaining of his 2012 salary which would be just under $1M.

 

Now let's say we do acquire him for nothing or more likely low-mid level prospect(s) and he finishes out the year with the team. Now we have another asset on the ball club. He would have great value in the winter especially for the lack of left handed starters on the FA market.

 

Just think about the fact that the cubs got a top 40 prospect (prior to Tommy John) for Paul Maholm who is a very comparable pitcher to Vargas. All I'm saying is explore the option of claiming him.. There is nothing to lose. I'm not saying he should be part of our rotation or any part of the twins' future but if acquiring him increases the overall value of the franchise then do it. Sometimes you have to think out of the box.. Especially when you're going to lose 90+ games for the second straight season with a budget that's going to continue to decrease.

[jokin]

I think some people are looking at this the wrong way. We have the right to make the first claim on him. What happens from there.. We either get him for nothing.. They pull him back.. Or we try to work out a trade. If the mariners ask for too much.. Then just don't complete a trade and the mariners will have to pull him back or just give him to us and we pay for the remaining of his 2012 salary which would be just under $1M.

 

Now let's say we do acquire him for nothing or more likely low-mid level prospect(s) and he finishes out the year with the team. Now we have another asset on the ball club. He would have great value in the winter especially for the lack of left handed starters on the FA market.

 

Just think about the fact that the cubs got a top 40 prospect (prior to Tommy John) for Paul Maholm who is a very comparable pitcher to Vargas. All I'm saying is explore the option of claiming him.. There is nothing to lose. I'm not saying he should be part of our rotation or any part of the twins' future but if acquiring him increases the overall value of the franchise then do it. Sometimes you have to think out of the box.. Especially when you're going to lose 90+ games for the second straight season with a budget that's going to continue to decrease.

 

Ding, Ding, Ding!