Jason Vargas

[jokin]

There isn't an argument to made about Vargas' potential, I haven't offered one. He is what he is. A predictable entity. By season-end he will have averaged over 200 innings per year over the last 3 years and get you consistently ~32starts/YR pitching into the 7th inning.

 

By contrast, everything about Diamond says uncertainty. Diamond has been a nice surprise this year, I pull for him and admire how he goes about his business every time out, but he was among the very first cuts in ST this year, which says something about what the Twins thought of him- and how they might be the most surprised of all. That's why I'm surprised you automatically give the nod to a guy with such a small set of data and the high uncertainty that goes with any shot that Diamond has at sustainability of these numbers in 2013. Although he's clearly had a better year than Vargas, his numbers are rapidly regressing as the league builds a book on him- from his ERA nadir of 1.61 on June 9 to the current 3.04 of August 28. And, he's never pitched these numbers of innings before.

 

While I certainly hope that Diamond can build on this season going into next year, I'll take the certainty of Vargas, even pre-2012 numbers (ie, X-BABIP-effect), going into next season, plus the possibilities that he offers as a trading deadline chip in 2013.

 

If the Twins (unfortunately, a big IF by my reasoning) then go to the offseason FA market and get a Sanchez-type, you suddenly have a much more respectable staff, especially if Gibson and Hendriks come through at all.

 

The problem with Vargas is that he plays half his games in Seattle and all his games with the Seattle outfield at his back. Almost all his numbers are due to regress in 2013, given that he only keeps 40% of his balls on the ground. Fine for Seattle with the Mariners OF, not quite so fine in Target Field with the Twins outfield.

 

I'm not against the idea of going after a player like Vargas. I actually think it's a good idea. I just don't think Vargas is the right guy because if you remove him from the Pacific Northwest, he could turn into a pretty bad pitcher quickly. He doesn't strike guys out, he lets waaay too many balls be hit in the air, he is riding an artificially low BABIP this season, and he's not cheap in 2013. I think there are far better deals to be had on the market or in trades.

 

There is a reason why his road ERA from 2010-2012 is ~1.75 higher than his home ERA. He's not the type of guy that plays well in a small or mid-sized stadium. In fact, those stadiums will kill a guy like that.

 

The exact same arguments used against Maholm.

[old nurse]

Vargas pitched like he did not want to be a Twin last night.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The exact same arguments used against Maholm.

 

Paul Maholm shares few characteristics with Vargas. Maholm induces half his balls hit into the ground. Maholm's HR rate is far lower than Vargas. He also strikes out a few more guys (he's an NL pitcher, after all).

 

Maholm has a better chance of succeeding in Target Field than Vargas, in my opinion. I'm not crazy about the guy but he could be a serviceable pitcher. He doesn't fall apart if he's pitching in a ballpark smaller than the Grand Canyon, that's for sure.

[jokin]

The exact same arguments used against Maholm.

 

Paul Maholm shares few characteristics with Vargas. Maholm induces half his balls hit into the ground. Maholm's HR rate is far lower than Vargas. He also strikes out a few more guys (he's an NL pitcher, after all).

 

Maholm has a better chance of succeeding in Target Field than Vargas, in my opinion. I'm not crazy about the guy but he could be a serviceable pitcher. He doesn't fall apart if he's pitching in a ballpark smaller than the Grand Canyon, that's for sure.

 

I'm not crazy about either of the two, but the Twins would vastly improve their dire situation at SP by obtaining stopgap 200-inning arms while they take the necessary time to right the ship arms that likely won't break down- on short-term deals that are flippable if/when the timing is right.

[J-Dog Dungan]

Man, Vargas was sure pissed off after giving up that home run to Willingham last night. Was the pitch as close as they were saying.

[jokin]

Man, Vargas was sure pissed off after giving up that home run to Willingham last night. Was the pitch as close as they were saying.

 

Foxtrax had it just off the corner, a "pitcher's pitch" that sometimes umps call, sometimes they don't. You could tell Vargas is feeling the pressure of both how he was pitching last night and likely about his up-in-the-air status with the Mariners, who are likely going to move on without him in 2013.

[Top Gun]

Vargas for Blackburn is about equal.

[snepp]

Vargas for Blackburn is about equal.

 

No.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not crazy about either of the two, but the Twins would vastly improve their dire situation at SP by obtaining stopgap 200-inning arms while they take the necessary time to right the ship arms that likely won't break down- on short-term deals that are flippable if/when the timing is right.

 

In the case of Maholm, I agree if the deal is right. But I see Vargas imploding outside of Seattle. Maybe I'm wrong but that flyball rate and his consistent struggles outside of SafeCo worry me.