Sickels Top 20

[old nurse]

 

could be the Braves'

It is a good thing to have a lot of prospects when you have 3 90 loss seasons in a row.  Note that Gihara at 19 was once rated as a C* prospect  that blossomed, for those lamenting all the C, C+ prospects the Twins have

[old nurse]

 

 

I don't think this is true. According to Baseball-Reference, they were 4th youngest on the position player side and fifth oldest on the pitching side.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017.shtml

The Twins pitching staff is old because the used Gimminez as a pitcher With Belisle, Breslow, Colon, Perkins, hopefully not Gimmenz pitching and the handful of older prospect tried out likely not coming back to the major league roster it would shave a couple of years off the average.  The other guy posted average age weighted by games played. That would make a difference. The chart you cited includes pitchers who batted, also making the Twins position players seem older because  all of the old pitchers are included in the average age.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins pitching staff is old because the used Gimminez as a pitcher With Belisle, Breslow, Colon, Perkins, hopefully not Gimmenz pitching and the handful of older prospect tried out likely not coming back to the major league roster it would shave a couple of years off the average.  The other guy posted average age weighted by games played. That would make a difference. The chart you cited includes pitchers who batted, also making the Twins position players seem older because  all of the old pitchers are included in the average age.

 

that page is weighted.....not sure what you mean. 

[drjim]

Not that it makes much of a difference for the Twins, but I wonder why they give extra age weight to saves. Interesting formula.

 

The Twins certainly have a young stable of everyday players, but they won't have a young pitching staff. The consequence of years of failures in developing pitching.

[mikelink45]

 

Well this possible rotation greatly concerns me. I would definitely like to add one arm to the dependable top 2 of Berrios and Santana. I would also prefer quality over quantity for additions though.

The free agent always looks good before camp - here is an interesting recap of last years worst signings.  They did not think that they would turn out bad at the time.  https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/10/4/16364362/mlb-rumors-worst-free-agent-signing-2017

 

I have seen no free agents that are likely for us to sign that impress me. 

[mikelink45]

 

Felix Jorge is number 7. Gibson is only retained if their preliminary sniffing around for trades is not encouraging. Likely a FA with upside that nobody here will be excited about so Gonsalves or Mejia are in the minors. That would be my best guess.

Your guess is as good as anyone.  The great post season shuffle will be fascinating to watch.

[bird]

 

The point is, we were the second youngest team in baseball last season based on weighted playing time. The current farm system is very deep, with most of the future star power being teenagers. Our franchise couldn't possibly be more healthy. 

 

 

Having both a MLB roster and a farm system that rank among the best ten in baseball and with both trending in the right direction is something very few organizations can claim, maybe a half dozen. So yeah, we're in an enviable position for a change. However, I want to see Falvine in action a bit more before I get too excited that we're about to have a sustained level of excellence that includes a run at a title.

 

My view is that Terry Ryan, as an asset manager, was a value investor and a reluctant trader. He was a buy and hold guy. While this works with common stocks, it's a poor philosophy and strategy when your assets are volatile baseball players. I'm hoping, and optimistic, that Falvine sees successful trading as a critical value they absolutely have to add because of the volatility of player performance and values, and also because of how fluid an organization's asset composite is. On this last point, we can remember when we questioned whether our development people knew how to develop middle infielders because we had so few, and next year we're going to start hearing about how pitching talent is the strength of our farm system.

 

I want to see a bit more evidence 1) that they'll be opportunistic and aggressive about one-off opportunities that arise (Otani anyone?); 2) that as surplus value surfaces, for example minor league middle infielders and relievers currently, they'll trade surplus to shore up weak areas and improve the talent pipeline further when possible; 3) that they'll use every avenue, including free agency, without compromising one thing that Ryan did in fact have right, which is that you can't sustain anything if your talent pipeline is plundered or simply weak.

[old nurse]

 

that page is weighted.....not sure what you mean. 

 The other guy was clearly stated as the person saying the ages were weighted, go ask that person. I have no clue where he would dig something like that up. Maybe he has time, energy and know how to sort the files.

[bird]

 

The Twins should not be going into the 2018 season expecting anything from Gonsalves, Romero, Sleger, Jorge or Stewart. This off-season they need to add a pitcher with 1 or 2 type stuff.

 

FA Pitcher / Trade

Santana

Berries

Gibson (Hopefully his second half is an indication of what's to come)

Mejia

 

There will obviously be injuries and struggles throughout the season and that's when you bring up one of the young pitchers but don't count on them to start the season.

 

Yes, and I wouldn't mind at all if they picked up one pitcher via FA that could perform at a 2/3 level and a second similar talent via trade. They can always deal the players who finish out of the running and don't have a locker ready for them in Rochester. 

 

Gonsalves, Romero, May, Littell, and Thorpe are the five guys close enough to MLB with the most promise, but the pundits don't project any of them to be top-of-the-rotation guys, and especially out of the blocks.

 

The next guys on the list with a chance to be ready are all thought of as back-end guys at best, I think: Slegers, Jorge, Stewart, and Rosario, and then you have the kind of guys we got used to seeing plugged in, even last season, with Enns, Eades, Hurlbut, and a few others.

 

Regardless of how one defines depth, I think we can agree we have it everywhere in the system but at the top end of the MLB rotation.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

 The other guy was clearly stated as the person saying the ages were weighted, go ask that person. I have no clue where he would dig something like that up. Maybe he has time, energy and know how to sort the files.

 

the baseballreference page is weighted by playing time, so "gimenez pitched, or ESAN hit" is irrelevant....the data on that page is clear, by weighted ages the Twins are not close to the youngest team in baseball.

[bird]

 

the baseballreference page is weighted by playing time, so "gimenez pitched, or ESAN hit" is irrelevant....the data on that page is clear, by weighted ages the Twins are not close to the youngest team in baseball.

 

I don't know why anyone would care to look back at this stuff. It might prove howieramone2's statement to be inaccurate but it doesn't negate his point, which is that this is a team on the rise due to its youthful talent. I know you aren't arguing that point.

 

With Breslow, Colon, Perkins, Kintzler and others gone, and with it being unlikely that we're counting on Hughes, Santiago, Belisle, and Boshers for significant innings, that leaves Santana and Gibson, 29, as the two guys on the staff right now in the declining stages of their careers and one could both argue that Gibson isn't in decline and that he is not a given for 2018. I'm hoping they add two starters and a reliever through FA or trades and get older and better, kind of like me.

 

Positionally, we might get younger by substituting Garver for Giminez. No other player is older than 28 (Escobar) except Castro, Dozier, and Mauer, so the core of our offense can surely be described as young and on the rise, right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know why anyone would care to look back at this stuff. It might prove howieramone2's statement to be inaccurate but it doesn't negate his point, which is that this is a team on the rise due to its youthful talent. I know you aren't arguing that point.

 

With Breslow, Colon, Perkins, Kintzler and others gone, and with it being unlikely that we're counting on Hughes, Santiago, Belisle, and Boshers for significant innings, that leaves Santana and Gibson, 29, as the two guys on the staff right now in the declining stages of their careers and one could both argue that Gibson isn't in decline and that he is not a given for 2018. I'm hoping they add two starters and a reliever through FA or trades and get older and better, kind of like me.

 

Positionally, we might get younger by substituting Garver for Giminez. No other player is older than 28 (Escobar) except Castro, Dozier, and Mauer, so the core of our offense can surely be described as young and on the rise, right?

 

I was more arguing against someone that said the site wasn't weighted.....since it was.

 

I do agree it is on the younger side next year, depending on what they do with C and FA SP.....

 

On the rise? Probably, but player growth isn't linear, as we saw with Kepler this year. I think it should be, and likely will be, doesn't mean it will be. If I was the FO, I'd assume mostly growth from the young players, but again, those are odds, not guarantees. Because there is no good bet on the other side for the position players. On the RP side? I wouldn't trust any of them that were not in the majors last year to contribute. If they do, great, if not, hopefully the two FA I signed plus luck works in my favor.....

[drjim]

I don't know why anyone would care to look back at this stuff. It might prove howieramone2's statement to be inaccurate but it doesn't negate his point, which is that this is a team on the rise due to its youthful talent. I know you aren't arguing that point.

 

With Breslow, Colon, Perkins, Kintzler and others gone, and with it being unlikely that we're counting on Hughes, Santiago, Belisle, and Boshers for significant innings, that leaves Santana and Gibson, 29, as the two guys on the staff right now in the declining stages of their careers and one could both argue that Gibson isn't in decline and that he is not a given for 2018. I'm hoping they add two starters and a reliever through FA or trades and get older and better, kind of like me.

 

Positionally, we might get younger by substituting Garver for Giminez. No other player is older than 28 (Escobar) except Castro, Dozier, and Mauer, so the core of our offense can surely be described as young and on the rise, right?

They will probably sign at least 3 free agent pitchers, so they won't get especially younger.

[Guest]

I don't really get the Diaz love either. Minimal walk rate, meh power, no positional value.

 

With you on Thorpe, but I understand a little caution by Sickels considering the injury history.

I get your comments about Diaz, but professionals inside and outside the organization, such as Sickels, seem to like him and I’m assuming they are seeing him in person, vs. my review of the box scores. He did also have a lot of 2Bs last year, which is promising.

[Guest]

We're on the same page...  No to the Tyler chatwoods of the world. Get a good pitcher.

 

One exception may be Mejia. I'd go north with him unless May is ready to go, though I can definitely respect burning an option on him. Gibson is the hard decision in my opinion. Not sure I'd want that question mark in the rotation.

At least two key starters in July-October may be different from the rotation that starts the year. (1) If things go well, they will make a deadline acquisition. (2) Odds are that either May or one of the young guys will push into the rotation.

[bird]

 

They will probably sign at least 3 free agent pitchers, so they won't get especially younger.

 

Let's hope, right?

[drjim]

 

I get your comments about Diaz, but professionals inside and outside the organization, such as Sickels, seem to like him and I’m assuming they are seeing him in person, vs. my review of the box scores. He did also have a lot of 2Bs last year, which is promising.

 

It will be interesting to see how other prospect sites rank him. I would think a place like Fangraphs will drop him significantly. BA too.

[caninatl04]

 

The Twins pitching staff is old because the used Gimminez as a pitcher With Belisle, Breslow, Colon, Perkins, hopefully not Gimmenz pitching and the handful of older prospect tried out likely not coming back to the major league roster it would shave a couple of years off the average.  The other guy posted average age weighted by games played. That would make a difference. The chart you cited includes pitchers who batted, also making the Twins position players seem older because  all of the old pitchers are included in the average age.

And didn't they have some guy named Bartolo Colon on their pitching staff?

[old nurse]

 

the baseballreference page is weighted by playing time, so "gimenez pitched, or ESAN hit" is irrelevant....the data on that page is clear, by weighted ages the Twins are not close to the youngest team in baseball.

The  original poster said by playing time. Baseball Reference uses at bats, So when a player walks or sacrifices, it did not count.You do not have to hold a bat at the plate to get playing time.  You can hold a bat and only show up in 3 innings.   Edwin Diaz is a 22 year old for Seattle  By weighted AB, he  did not play. All he did is  pitch in 66 games, 66 innings and got the last out when the game was still in question in 24 of them  By AB he never played.

ESPN has the Twins older, but they say the Twins used 35 players, not the 52 listed on BREF.  

Again, go ask they guy who posted it for the source.  It is probably as flawed as the baseball reference age calculator that is being quoted

 

[kab21]

 

We're on the same page...  No to the Tyler chatwoods of the world. Get a good pitcher.

 

One exception may be Mejia. I'd go north with him unless May is ready to go, though I can definitely respect burning an option on him. Gibson is the hard decision in my opinion. Not sure I'd want that question mark in the rotation.

Your exception isn't actually an exception. I consider an unproven (alright first 100 IP) young pitcher that starts out the season as the #5 as depth. He has the best chance at being a solid contributor next season but not a lock.

I am not excited about Gibson either but I don't think the Twins acquire two quality starting pitchers and frankly I prefer Gibson on a 1 yr arb contract to signing someone like Chatwood to a multi-year contract. Him being a question mark is fine since the Twins have some really good options that could be up sometime next season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Your exception isn't actually an exception. I consider an unproven (alright first 100 IP) young pitcher that starts out the season as the #5 as depth. He has the best chance at being a solid contributor next season but not a lock.

I am not excited about Gibson either but I don't think the Twins acquire two quality starting pitchers and frankly I prefer Gibson on a 1 yr arb contract to signing someone like Chatwood to a multi-year contract. Him being a question mark is fine since the Twins have some really good options that could be up sometime next season.

 

I wouldn't like it, but I wouldn't lose sleep over a quality FA signing that put Mejia in AAA if they offered Gibson arb... that, however, is a lot of SPs on the 40 man.. off the top of my head (Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, and Littell)... then you have guys like Enns and Rodriguez.

[old nurse]

 

I wouldn't like it, but I wouldn't lose sleep over a quality FA signing that put Mejia in AAA if they offered Gibson arb... that, however, is a lot of SPs on the 40 man.. off the top of my head (Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, and Littell)... then you have guys like Enns and Rodriguez.

Adding a quality FA and Gibson arbitration would likely get Slegers off the 40 man, Stewart could also be a casualty.  Enns is borderline, being left handed is the good, low strikeouts to the bad. Rodriguez doesn't get much love over at minor league ball but his numbers look respectable enough to keep. Some of the stuff I have read says that he could be really good as a pitcher.

[kab21]

 

I wouldn't like it, but I wouldn't lose sleep over a quality FA signing that put Mejia in AAA if they offered Gibson arb... that, however, is a lot of SPs on the 40 man.. off the top of my head (Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, and Littell)... then you have guys like Enns and Rodriguez.

I think they need to sign/trade two good FA SP's AND offer arb to Gibson to bump Mejia into AAA. I don't think they will take this path. Even if they took the unlikely route of 2 big acquisitions then I think Gibson wouldn't be back (saving money that they spent on other starters).

[drjim]

I think they need to sign/trade two good FA SP's AND offer arb to Gibson to bump Mejia into AAA. I don't think they will take this path. Even if they took the unlikely route of 2 big acquisitions then I think Gibson wouldn't be back (saving money that they spent on other starters).

I could see them going big on one sp and signing an upside sp to a 1 year deal. Depends on how market shakes out.

[kab21]

 

I could see them going big on one sp and signing an upside sp to a 1 year deal. Depends on how market shakes out.

And offering Gibson arb? 

I don't see all 3. In fact I almost see Gibson as that upside SP on a 1 year deal.

[drjim]

And offering Gibson arb?

 

I don't see all 3. In fact I almost see Gibson as that upside SP on a 1 year deal.

And arb. Looking at FA, Santana, Berrios and the 2 1 year flyers. Pushes everyone down for depth.

 

I think it matters how the market shakes out. I doubt they'd overspend for a second SP but they will be opportunistic.

[Tom Froemming]

On Nick Gordon, it's important to note that he spent all year as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He was three years younger than the average player at that level, and faced older pitchers 89.8 percent of the time. He's almost an entire year younger than Brent Rooker.

 

Before I saw Lewin Diaz play I figured he was just some all or nothing slugging first baseman. After seeing him a bit on MiLB.tv this season, I'm a lot more intrigued. To my eye, it looks like he has great hands. He only struck out in 15.8 percent of his at bats and also hit same-sided pitching, which is encouraging (.268/.319/.455 vs. LHP). From July forward (49 games), he hit .319. If he becomes more selective, focusing on "his" pitch rather than just hitable pitches, and the power takes another step (he led the Midwest League in doubles) he could be a beast.

[kab21]

 

And arb. Looking at FA, Santana, Berrios and the 2 1 year flyers. Pushes everyone down for depth.

I think it matters how the market shakes out. I doubt they'd overspend for a second SP but they will be opportunistic.

It looks like you and mikelink are on the extreme opposite sides of addressing the issue. I am not sure they spend (and split up the spending) that much when there are so many prospects so close. I hope they concentrate the spending into one quality option instead of spreading 10+ M across Gibson and another upside type. Of course if they trade for someone like Cole (<10M for next season) then everything works a lot more easily.

[drjim]

It looks like you and mikelink are on the extreme opposite sides of addressing the issue. I am not sure they spend (and split up the spending) that much when there are so many prospects so close. I hope they concentrate the spending into one quality option instead of spreading 10+ M across Gibson and another upside type. Of course if they trade for someone like Cole (<10M for next season) then everything works a lot more easily.

I guess I hope they target one quality option and sign a second pitcher if the market shakes out to allow a good one year deal, or if a good trade can be had. I have no interest in splitting two ways. I wouldn't go multiple years with two guys.

 

There is depth here at upper levels, but as you have said, they need #2-3 guys right now, not significantly more depth.

[drjim]

On Nick Gordon, it's important to note that he spent all year as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He was three years younger than the average player at that level, and faced older pitchers 89.8 percent of the time. He's almost an entire year younger than Brent Rooker.

 

Before I saw Lewin Diaz play I figured he was just some all or nothing slugging first baseman. After seeing him a bit on MiLB.tv this season, I'm a lot more intrigued. To my eye, it looks like he has great hands. He only struck out in 15.8 percent of his at bats and also hit same-sided pitching, which is encouraging (.268/.319/.455 vs. LHP). From July forward (49 games), he hit .319. If he becomes more selective, focusing on "his" pitch rather than just hitable pitches, and the power takes another step (he led the Midwest League in doubles) he could be a beast.

 

Thanks for that perspective on Diaz. Would explain his ranking despite his not great numbers.