Walt's daily odds

[walt-o-meal]

Here is daily odds for Twins make playoff levels. Is base from win percent and binomial function.

 

Win Second Wall Car: 0.62

Win Total Wall Car: .457

Win ALDS : .136

Win ALCS .047

Win WS: .012

 

And here is graph to make clear.

 

I update if you like.

 

Win Twins!

[walt-o-meal]

After Friday's (9-22) games:

 

Win WC2:  .730 (+.110)
Win WC:  .463 (+.006)
Win ALDS:  .143 (+.007)
Win ALCS:  .050 (+.003)
Win WS:  .013 (+.001)

[amjgt]

If they have a 73% chance of being the second WC and a 46% chance of reaching the ALDS doesn't that imply we have a 63% chance (.46/.73) of winning the wild card game?

 

That doesn't seem correct.

[drjim]

If they have a 73% chance of being the second WC and a 46% chance of reaching the ALDS doesn't that imply we have a 63% chance (.46/.73) of winning the wild card game?

 

That doesn't seem correct.

All they would have to do is beat the Yankees. Why should that be a problem?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I could see a 46% chance of winning the WC game once we have clinched the 2nd WC, but that seems high right now.

 

FWIW, Fangraphs has us up to 88% chance to get the 2nd WC, and a 37% chance to advance to the ALDS. That implies something like a 42% chance once they get to the WC game, which seems about right given records as the road team. (Without any Twins-Yankee curse adjustment, of course!)

[walt-o-meal]

 

If they have a 73% chance of being the second WC and a 46% chance of reaching the ALDS doesn't that imply we have a 63% chance (.46/.73) of winning the wild card game?

That doesn't seem correct.

Oops. You're right. .463 was the chance of winning the wild card game. Securing the second wild card AND winning the wild card game would be .73 * .462 = .338.

 

Here are the corrected numbers:

Win WC2:.730 (+.110)
Win WC:.338 (+.055)
Win ALDS:.104 (+.020)
Win ALCS:.037 (+.007)
Win WS:.009 (+.002)

[gil4]

 

Oops. You're right. .463 was the chance of winning the wild card game. Securing the second wild card AND winning the wild card game would be .73 * .462 = .338.

 

Here are the corrected numbers:

Win WC2:.730 (+.110)
Win WC:.338 (+.055)
Win ALDS:.104 (+.020)
Win ALCS:.037 (+.007)
Win WS:.009 (+.002)

Down to less than 1% chance of winning the WS.  I guess  I need to hold off on my travel arrangements for the parade.

[walt-o-meal]

After play today:

 

Win WC2:.880 (+.150)
Win WC:.409 (+..071)
Win ALDS:.127 (+.023)
Win ALCS:.044 (+.008)
Win WS:.012 (+.003)

 

Daily odds indicate we're moving in the right direction.

 

Optimistic thought of the day: The Twins are 53x more likely to win the WS than they were on 8/1.