Article: Deciphering Deduno

[JP3700]

I mean.. Let's be honest.. What he's currently doing isn't sustainable. But I do agree he should finish out the season.. But he does need to improve his walk rate. Hard to believe he will.. considering he's almost 30 and still hasn't figured it out but I hope he does cause he does have good stuff.

 

For the Deduno lovers.. Get excited about Esmerling Vasquez. Should be up September. Similar to Deduno. Wild with good stuff.. Has a much better track record though.

[frightwig]

Deduno has only given up 37 hits in 46 innings whereas most Twins pitchers give up at least a hit per inning. (ahem Nick Blackburn - 143 hits in 98 innings) In most cases a walk surrendered is a better outcome than a hit surrendered in not moving baserunners as far around the diamond and keeping the double play in order - so a low-hit high-walk pitcher should fare better than a high-hit low-walk pitcher if their baserunners to innings pitched are proportional.

 

Can you give some examples of "low-hit high-walk" pitchers (let's say a BB/9 above 4.0, but the closer to a 7.0 BB/9 the better) who sustained above-average success by that approach? And would any pitchers on such a list also have a K/9 below 6?

[DaveW]

DeDuno has a FIP of 5.40 and an xfIP of 5.07

 

If you are going to walk a ton of guys, you frankly need to strike out a ton as well. Sanchez is the perfect example, he has always walked a ton of guys, but when he was striking out 9.5-10 guys per 9 innings he was able to get away with it. This year his k rate dropped below 7 and he has gotten shelled.

[Kobs]

I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power.

 

"I told one of my employees to do my job" is not a valid excuse.

[JP3700]

I am by far not a Gardy supporter, but its not Gardy who runs the pitching staff....he gives Rick Anderson almost full power.

 

"I told one of my employees to do my job" is not a valid excuse.

 

Might be the best comment I've read

[Teflon]

Deduno has only given up 37 hits in 46 innings whereas most Twins pitchers give up at least a hit per inning. (ahem Nick Blackburn - 143 hits in 98 innings) In most cases a walk surrendered is a better outcome than a hit surrendered in not moving baserunners as far around the diamond and keeping the double play in order - so a low-hit high-walk pitcher should fare better than a high-hit low-walk pitcher if their baserunners to innings pitched are proportional.

 

Can you give some examples of "low-hit high-walk" pitchers (let's say a BB/9 above 4.0, but the closer to a 7.0 BB/9 the better) who sustained above-average success by that approach? And would any pitchers on such a list also have a K/9 below 6?

 

I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

[kab21]

I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

 

This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

 

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

 

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.

[COtwin]

No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

 

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

 

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.

 

 

Agree. With how often we have let average or worse pitchers with average or worse stuff try to pull it together, Deduno should definitely be in the picture for next year. Lets say Diamond, Hendriks, and only one decent free agent. 2 spots remaining for Deduno, Hernandez, Devries, Walters, maybe Vasquez, Baker remote chance. Deduno has to be in the picture. He pitches fairly deep into games and doesn't saddle the team with big deficits. Sure only 25% of a seasons work, but we let way worse (results) pitchers go to the mound day after day. Marquis, Blackburn, Gray (RP so what), Pavano. Deduno has a much higher ceiling (IMO) than any of the 4 just mentioned, and probably higher than a couple of the others he'd be battling.

[Mauerzy4Prez]

No reason not to leave him in the rotation for this year. If he is one of the top five starters entering 2013, that's a failure by management.

 

I somewhat disagree. It's going to be a real challenge to fill four rotation spots in one offseason. Say you have Diamond and Hendriks filling the first two spots. You add a decent FA for the third spot, maybe even the fourth spot if you get a guy in a trade.

 

That still leaves one spot open to fill. Given the "prospects" on the team after Hendriks, I'd just as soon see Deduno get a shot as anyone else on the roster.

 

 

Agree. With how often we have let average or worse pitchers with average or worse stuff try to pull it together, Deduno should definitely be in the picture for next year. Lets say Diamond, Hendriks, and only one decent free agent. 2 spots remaining for Deduno, Hernandez, Devries, Walters, maybe Vasquez, Baker remote chance. Deduno has to be in the picture. He pitches fairly deep into games and doesn't saddle the team with big deficits. Sure only 25% of a seasons work, but we let way worse (results) pitchers go to the mound day after day. Marquis, Blackburn, Gray (RP so what), Pavano. Deduno has a much higher ceiling (IMO) than any of the 4 just mentioned, and probably higher than a couple of the others he'd be battling.

 

Diamond and Henricks as our #1 and 2 is not good. Diamond is a #2-3 type pitcher on a legit staff, and Hendricks is right around the same. We have Gibson coming back next year hopefully by July, and I'd like to see him in the 2 spot. That leaves it up to the FO to pick up a solid #1 guy, and figure out their 4 and 5 spots... Personally I think they will end up giving Deduno, Duensing, maybe DeVries/Walters/Vasquez/Hernandez, a chance to fill up the back of the rotation. We will see how some of these young guys do in the next 45 games...

 

For all you that are going to rip me for mentioning Duensing, the main reason I have him listed is because everyone from the organization publicly talks about how they believe he can start in the major leagues. The Twins aren't as ready to give up on him as some of the fans might be.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Diamond and Henricks as our #1 and 2 is not good. Diamond is a #2-3 type pitcher on a legit staff, and Hendricks is right around the same. We have Gibson coming back next year hopefully by July, and I'd like to see him in the 2 spot. That leaves it up to the FO to pick up a solid #1 guy, and figure out their 4 and 5 spots... Personally I think they will end up giving Deduno, Duensing, maybe DeVries/Walters/Vasquez/Hernandez, a chance to fill up the back of the rotation. We will see how some of these young guys do in the next 45 games...

 

For all you that are going to rip me for mentioning Duensing, the main reason I have him listed is because everyone from the organization publicly talks about how they believe he can start in the major leagues. The Twins aren't as ready to give up on him as some of the fans might be.

 

In no way is either Hendriks or Diamond a #1 pitcher. I was merely using those numbers as placeholders, not the intended position of each player in the rotation.

[Teflon]

I think you would look for pitchers with comparable WHIPs and then compare the percentages of walks of each. My supposition would be that the pitcher with the higher walk total should give up fewer runs, barring a large discrepancy in extra-base hits between the two. For instance, Aaron Harang and Dan Haren have almost identical WHIPs (1.391) in a fairly comparable number of innings (143 - 129) with a similar number of strikeouts (112 - 101) Harang has walked twice as many batters (67) as Haren (33) but has an ERA over a run lower. (3.65 to 4.90) To my mind, Harang would be the better choice between the two BECAUSE he walks more batters. I'm not saying Harang would be better than a pitcher with a lower WHIP - just better than a pitcher with a comparable WHIP and fewer walks.

 

This would only be true if you were leaving BAPIP out of the equation as well as GB rate and HR/FB rate. Going forward you would expect Harang's BAPIP to climb some and for him to give up a similar number of HR's as Haren.

 

Irrelevant. My only point is that a walk is a better outcome than a hit. Deduno's walks hurt less than if they were hits.