Christensen: Minnesota Twins Pitching Hope Are On Horizon

[cr9617]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

That core, other than Mauer, is about as average as average can be.

[cr9617]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

You go Brock! I love the fact that the Twins are in rebuilding mode right now and everybody is calling for TR head. Lest people forget that rebuilding is one of his strengths? If the pitching injuries did not happen this year this team would have been much more competitive (shhh... nobody wants to talk about that).

 

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

What's positive about a team approaching 100 losses 2 years in a row? And are they really in rebuild mode? Seems to me they are throwing all sorts of crap at the wall and hoping something will stick.

 

How is this team going to approach .500 next year with Scott Diamond and four nobody's making up their rotation? If you think the Twins are going to outbid other teams for a top end starter or two, you have not been paying attention.

 

This team would be 5 wins better with a healthy Baker, I'll give you that. Pavano's has nothing left, even if he was healthy.

[Vervehound]

the real struggle for this organization has been its abysmal track record of drafting college arms post-2005 draft. 2011 was a deep, deep draft and the twins haul of michael, boyd, harrison, boer, williams, summers and grimes in the top five rounds looks horrible a year later. that was a blown draft and the preceding drafts were not a lot better. perhaps the real issue here is the scouting department?

 

You're ready to give up on a draft class that is one year old?? I wasn't high on Michael, and definitely not a Grimes guy, but there is no reason to give up on Williams, Boer and Summers yet, and certainly WAY too early to give up on Boyd and Harrison.

 

And, let's see how Gibson does, and how Wimmers returns next year midseason before completely giving up on ALL college pitchers drafted since 2005.

 

i wouldn't say i'm ready to give up on it at all - but you had picks 30, 50 and 55 and it none of the guys you picked look like standouts a year later. as for the college arms - summers has pitched decently and has a nice arm, but he hasn't missed bats at all and i doubt he makes it as a starter so you succeeded in picking three potential middle relievers. not what this system needs. i have the most hope for our first three picks and understand that harrison's approach is much more geared towards line drives than moonshots, but i don't think this is an impressive haul by any means. that said, i do like our later round southpaws from last year - particularly montanez, lee and malinowski.

[twinsnorth49]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

You go Brock! I love the fact that the Twins are in rebuilding mode right now and everybody is calling for TR head. Lest people forget that rebuilding is one of his strengths? If the pitching injuries did not happen this year this team would have been much more competitive (shhh... nobody wants to talk about that).

 

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

What's positive about a team approaching 100 losses 2 years in a row? And are they really in rebuild mode? Seems to me they are throwing all sorts of crap at the wall and hoping something will stick.

 

How is this team going to approach .500 next year with Scott Diamond and four nobody's making up their rotation? If you think the Twins are going to outbid other teams for a top end starter or two, you have not been paying attention.

 

This team would be 5 wins better with a healthy Baker, I'll give you that. Pavano's has nothing left, even if he was healthy.

 

You don't like the FO, we get it, anything objective to say?

[JB_Iowa]

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

And if none of that happens, will you come back and admit you were wrong? I remember a number of posters in various places saying that THIS year couldn't possibly approach last year's record of futility.

 

Well, guess what? Mauer and Morneau have been healthier and more productive than almost anyone could have anticipated. The rest of the line-up has been pretty healthy, too. Admittedly the hit with Baker was a hard one and I think most of us expected more from Frankie (although he has always been a cautionary tale). Pavano? Can't say that was unanticipated. There were plenty of people who were worried about giving him a multi-year contract the last time. And yet, as of today, the Twins' record is worse than last year. By the end of the year, they may not have equaled last year's futility but its going to come pretty darn close.

 

I'm willing to give Terry Ryan some slack. It is hard to turn around a team in one year. On the other hand, I can't forget that he WAS with the team after he left the GM's chair the first time albeit not as GM. In addition, he pretty much absconded from responsibility in the face of some tough challenges (Hunter, Santana).

 

While I am reserving judgment on Terry Ryan, I strongly believe that some changes need to be made in this organization. It is stale, stale, stale. I'd prefer a new manager but if nothing else, there needs to be some changes in the coaching staff. Just like there needs to be changes in the front office.

 

This franchise is starving for some new leadership, energy and ideas.

[cr9617]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

You go Brock! I love the fact that the Twins are in rebuilding mode right now and everybody is calling for TR head. Lest people forget that rebuilding is one of his strengths? If the pitching injuries did not happen this year this team would have been much more competitive (shhh... nobody wants to talk about that).

 

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

What's positive about a team approaching 100 losses 2 years in a row? And are they really in rebuild mode? Seems to me they are throwing all sorts of crap at the wall and hoping something will stick.

 

How is this team going to approach .500 next year with Scott Diamond and four nobody's making up their rotation? If you think the Twins are going to outbid other teams for a top end starter or two, you have not been paying attention.

 

This team would be 5 wins better with a healthy Baker, I'll give you that. Pavano's has nothing left, even if he was healthy.

 

You don't like the FO, we get it, anything objective to say?

 

It's already been said.

[deanlambrecht]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

Frankly, it's getting harder and harder to criticize the Santana-Gomez (et al) trade. Gomez is having a good year, and continues to have big upside at a very young age. Santana can't be considered anything but a disaster for the Mets.

• He's put together only a single complete season at the level of success he achieved with the Twins, his first one, and ever since:
  
  • Has been on the DL for seasons-length of periods of time, with repeated shorter DL stints.
    
  • Despite his no-hitter earlier this season, has been pitching quite poorly this season, including being a complete and utter disaster since he tossed that 134 pitch no-hitter.
    

Yet they're paying him in the mid $20M range every year, and still owe him $25M next season (which is looking increasingly troublesome).

 

With the other players in that trade, we netted Jon Rauch in the Mulvey trade, which worked out well for us for over a season. Indeed, Humber was a disaster, and while he's still hanging by a thread it's looking the same for Guerra.

 

We got some interesting production from a very young Gomez, and the CF threat he posed to Denard seemed to spark something in Span to turn his languishing career around. We then we got Hardy for Gomez - as you noted, a fantastic move (and that we blew this with the Hardy to B'more trade says nothing about the Santana trade).

 

Gleeman wrote about this earlier this year, calling it a lose-lose trade (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15979). I'd argue the Twins did better than did the Mets. Whether or not we would have done better by letting Santana go and getting a few picks for him is the only argument, IMO, that flies, but it's a purely speculative one. As Gleeman aptly points out, the pieces we got for Santana were highly ranked when we got them. They didn't pan out like we'd hoped. Obviously neither did Santana. None of the teams we were targeting were willing to give us the pieces we wanted - perhaps they were suspicious of Santana's ability to keep producing at the level we'd seen, and perhaps so were we. And if the lot of 'em were suspicious, turns out they were right.

 

Outside of that, Brock, you've got a far superior argument here compared to those having a little freakout about our front office. The comparison point isn't the Yankees or Red Sox. It's all other teams in baseball. Compared to all other teams, based on performance over a reasonable time frame (a decade), our front office looks far better than most.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

And if none of that happens, will you come back and admit you were wrong? I remember a number of posters in various places saying that THIS year couldn't possibly approach last year's record of futility.

 

Well, guess what? Mauer and Morneau have been healthier and more productive than almost anyone could have anticipated. The rest of the line-up has been pretty healthy, too. Admittedly the hit with Baker was a hard one and I think most of us expected more from Frankie (although he has always been a cautionary tale). Pavano? Can't say that was unanticipated. There were plenty of people who were worried about giving him a multi-year contract the last time. And yet, as of today, the Twins' record is worse than last year. By the end of the year, they may not have equaled last year's futility but its going to come pretty darn close.

 

I'm willing to give Terry Ryan some slack. It is hard to turn around a team in one year. On the other hand, I can't forget that he WAS with the team after he left the GM's chair the first time albeit not as GM. In addition, he pretty much absconded from responsibility in the face of some tough challenges (Hunter, Santana).

 

While I am reserving judgment on Terry Ryan, I strongly believe that some changes need to be made in this organization. It is stale, stale, stale. I'd prefer a new manager but if nothing else, there needs to be some changes in the coaching staff. Just like there needs to be changes in the front office.

 

This franchise is starving for some new leadership, energy and ideas.

 

At the beginning of the year, this team shouldn't have approached the futility we are seeing, but lets look at this:

 

Position players in total are outperforming hopes and expectations: healthy Mauer, healthy Morneau, healthy Span (concussion wise), Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, even Butera. Hard to argue against these decisions.

 

Bullpen is, at the worst, doing what was expected. Not the league worst, fairly effective, even very good at times.

 

Starting staff decimated by injuries and playing below expectations. Look at the opening day starting five:

Pavano - if he only pitched at the same level he pitched last year, missed a lot of time due to injury (how long did he pitch hurt?).

Baker - Out for season, injury.

Liriano - 1st half was disaster, pitched better over last 8 starts with the team (couldn't even match last year's terrible numbers)

Blackburn - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (again, couldn't match last year's numbers)

Marquis - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (how much did missing Spring Training mess with him? Look at him now)

 

If these five had pitched to the levels they were supposed to how many more wins would the Twins have? Ten is probably a conservative number. Add ten wins and subtract ten losses, what do you have? A .500 team. I guarantee you nobody around here would be complaining about .500 after last year. The Twins banked on these guys maintaining and being healthy. Virtually everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

 

Why is everybody ignoring the fact that this team has been about .500 since May? The sample size is large enough that you don't write it off. This is currently an average team that needs to improve it's starting pitching. But yet you say fire everybody and start over...

[JB_Iowa]

Please re-read my post. Where did I say fire everybody and start over?

 

I said that there need to be some changes and that this franchise needs an injection of fresh energy, leadership and ideas.

 

That is not the same as saying fire everybody. But take a look at the leadership (on field and front office) over the last 10 years. It is moribund.

 

When you seldom bring in anybody to challenge your status quo, you get complacent. I believe that the Twins are paying now for failing to gradually infuse new talent over time.

[twinsnorth49]

oh please. You can bury your head in the sand if you wish, but a lot us of here aren't buying it. The FO has made one blunder after another in recent years, both large and small. When times were good they were pretty quick to pat themselves on the back and remind everyone how cute and special they are. They were never all that special. Winning the Central is great, but it's not all THAT great. It's consistently the weakest division in baseball. Every other team that won the Central when the Twins did not, all had more success than did the Twins in the postseason. All those Central division banners ring somewhat hollow when you can't win a game, much less a series in the postseason.

 

Solid core of young-ish players? Who??

 

Yes, the front office made several blunders... And most of them weren't on JR's watch. Ramos/Capps, the Johan trade (admittedly, Smith was put into a difficult position there), Hardy/Hoey, Nishioka, etc... Smith did a great job with international signings, a pretty good job with the draft, and a completely abominable job with the Major League roster. The only move he made that was considered a good one by analysts was the Hardy for Gomez trade, which he later reversed with the ridiculous Hardy for Hoey trade.

 

You don't think the Twins have a solid core of young-ish players? What do you think Scott Diamond, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, and Glen Perkins are? They certainly need more pitching but their hitting core is pretty good. Willingham is the only guy who is old enough to show a significant decline at this point.

 

Frankly, it's getting harder and harder to criticize the Santana-Gomez (et al) trade. Gomez is having a good year, and continues to have big upside at a very young age. Santana can't be considered anything but a disaster for the Mets.

• He's put together only a single complete season at the level of success he achieved with the Twins, his first one, and ever since:
  
  • Has been on the DL for seasons-length of periods of time, with repeated shorter DL stints.
    
  • Despite his no-hitter earlier this season, has been pitching quite poorly this season, including being a complete and utter disaster since he tossed that 134 pitch no-hitter.
    

Yet they're paying him in the mid $20M range every year, and still owe him $25M next season (which is looking increasingly troublesome).

 

With the other players in that trade, we netted Jon Rauch in the Mulvey trade, which worked out well for us for over a season. Indeed, Humber was a disaster, and while he's still hanging by a thread it's looking the same for Guerra.

 

We got some interesting production from a very young Gomez, and the CF threat he posed to Denard seemed to spark something in Span to turn his languishing career around. We then we got Hardy for Gomez - as you noted, a fantastic move (and that we blew this with the Hardy to B'more trade says nothing about the Santana trade).

 

Gleeman wrote about this earlier this year, calling it a lose-lose trade (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15979). I'd argue the Twins did better than did the Mets. Whether or not we would have done better by letting Santana go and getting a few picks for him is the only argument, IMO, that flies, but it's a purely speculative one. As Gleeman aptly points out, the pieces we got for Santana were highly ranked when we got them. They didn't pan out like we'd hoped. Obviously neither did Santana. None of the teams we were targeting were willing to give us the pieces we wanted - perhaps they were suspicious of Santana's ability to keep producing at the level we'd seen, and perhaps so were we. And if the lot of 'em were suspicious, turns out they were right.

 

Outside of that, Brock, you've got a far superior argument here compared to those having a little freakout about our front office. The comparison point isn't the Yankees or Red Sox. It's all other teams in baseball. Compared to all other teams, based on performance over a reasonable time frame (a decade), our front office looks far better than most.

 

Only 11 different teams have won the WS since 1991, seeing as that is the only measuring stick by the "fire everybody" crowd, we're at least as good as 19 other teams. That's a lot of people out of work.

[cr9617]

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

And if none of that happens, will you come back and admit you were wrong? I remember a number of posters in various places saying that THIS year couldn't possibly approach last year's record of futility.

 

Well, guess what? Mauer and Morneau have been healthier and more productive than almost anyone could have anticipated. The rest of the line-up has been pretty healthy, too. Admittedly the hit with Baker was a hard one and I think most of us expected more from Frankie (although he has always been a cautionary tale). Pavano? Can't say that was unanticipated. There were plenty of people who were worried about giving him a multi-year contract the last time. And yet, as of today, the Twins' record is worse than last year. By the end of the year, they may not have equaled last year's futility but its going to come pretty darn close.

 

I'm willing to give Terry Ryan some slack. It is hard to turn around a team in one year. On the other hand, I can't forget that he WAS with the team after he left the GM's chair the first time albeit not as GM. In addition, he pretty much absconded from responsibility in the face of some tough challenges (Hunter, Santana).

 

While I am reserving judgment on Terry Ryan, I strongly believe that some changes need to be made in this organization. It is stale, stale, stale. I'd prefer a new manager but if nothing else, there needs to be some changes in the coaching staff. Just like there needs to be changes in the front office.

 

This franchise is starving for some new leadership, energy and ideas.

 

At the beginning of the year, this team shouldn't have approached the futility we are seeing, but lets look at this:

 

Position players in total are outperforming hopes and expectations: healthy Mauer, healthy Morneau, healthy Span (concussion wise), Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, even Butera. Hard to argue against these decisions.

 

Bullpen is, at the worst, doing what was expected. Not the league worst, fairly effective, even very good at times.

 

Starting staff decimated by injuries and playing below expectations. Look at the opening day starting five:

Pavano - if he only pitched at the same level he pitched last year, missed a lot of time due to injury (how long did he pitch hurt?).

Baker - Out for season, injury.

Liriano - 1st half was disaster, pitched better over last 8 starts with the team (couldn't even match last year's terrible numbers)

Blackburn - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (again, couldn't match last year's numbers)

Marquis - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (how much did missing Spring Training mess with him? Look at him now)

 

If these five had pitched to the levels they were supposed to how many more wins would the Twins have? Ten is probably a conservative number. Add ten wins and subtract ten losses, what do you have? A .500 team. I guarantee you nobody around here would be complaining about .500 after last year. The Twins banked on these guys maintaining and being healthy. Virtually everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

 

Why is everybody ignoring the fact that this team has been about .500 since May? The sample size is large enough that you don't write it off. This is currently an average team that needs to improve it's starting pitching. But yet you say fire everybody and start over...

 

How many IFS does it take to get to .500?

 

I don't know how you can spin something positive out of the worst record in the AL, and the 2nd highest ERA in the Majors.

[JB_Iowa]

I don't even know where the "since May" .500 record idea comes from anymore.

 

According to baseballreference.com, the Twins record by month is:

 

April 6-16

May 12-16

June 14-13

July 12-14

August 6-11

 

 

So, they had 1 month above .500 (June). One slightly below .500 (July). Taking those 2 months together, they were still slightly below .500 (26-27).

 

Even if you throw out April altogether, they are 44-54 (.449). I don't think there's even a date in May that you can "cherry pick" to somehow give them a .500 record.

 

You can't just celebrate June and July and forget April and August.

[CDog]

I don't even know where the "since May" .500 record idea comes from anymore.

 

According to baseballreference.com, the Twins record by month is:

 

April 6-16

May 12-16

June 14-13

July 12-14

August 6-11

 

 

So, they had 1 month above .500 (June). One slightly below .500 (July). Taking those 2 months together, they were still slightly below .500 (26-27).

 

Even if you throw out April altogether, they are 44-54 (.449). I don't think there's even a date in May that you can "cherry pick" to somehow give them a .500 record.

 

You can't just celebrate June and July and forget April and August.

 

They were 14 games under .500 as of May 7th and 17 games under by May 27th. They've been bouncing around close to those numbers of games under .500 ever since. That's where the idea comes from.

[Steve Lein]

I have no idea why this puts a "gleam in Antony's eye." I'd wager you wouldn't be able to find another team in as bad of shape as far as SP-prospects-coming-up as the Twins are. They are basically ridiculed for their draft this year on that front as well, as pretty much every Pitching prospect they drafted early (except Berrios) profiled as a RP.

 

All these guys have questions.

 

Berrios - just was drafted, do you really know what you have after the ~40 IP he'll throw in rookie leagues this year?

Gibson - Looks good so far on his comeback, but can he keep it up?

Hendriks - Love this guy, but will he figure out the Majors? I think he will, but he's a poor-mans Radke.

Hernandez - At least in my view, a guy viewed as a #5 would never put a "gleam" in my eye.

Vasquez - He's 28. His last 10 starts mean about the same to me as giving P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, and Sam Deduno opportunities this year. You go to him because you don't have any other options.

 

There's only 1 spot in this rotation spoken for next year, with Scott Diamond. And I agree with Mackey for once, lets not get carried away with what we think Diamond is. It's those Free Agent Starting Pitchers this offseason that should put a "gleam" in Antony's eye, not anybody that's already here.

[diehardtwinsfan]

you can add Blackburn to this list too... Former #1 prospect of the team.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

People are all over how good the Twins are when they do great and throw everybody under the bus when the are not. Its just too bad the same dozen negative posters keep repeating the "fire Terry, fire Gardy" mantra. It is old and stale. I sincerely hope that when this team is .500 next year and competing for the division within the next 2 that these same folks will admit their inadequacies and retire from posting.

 

 

And if none of that happens, will you come back and admit you were wrong? I remember a number of posters in various places saying that THIS year couldn't possibly approach last year's record of futility.

 

Well, guess what? Mauer and Morneau have been healthier and more productive than almost anyone could have anticipated. The rest of the line-up has been pretty healthy, too. Admittedly the hit with Baker was a hard one and I think most of us expected more from Frankie (although he has always been a cautionary tale). Pavano? Can't say that was unanticipated. There were plenty of people who were worried about giving him a multi-year contract the last time. And yet, as of today, the Twins' record is worse than last year. By the end of the year, they may not have equaled last year's futility but its going to come pretty darn close.

 

I'm willing to give Terry Ryan some slack. It is hard to turn around a team in one year. On the other hand, I can't forget that he WAS with the team after he left the GM's chair the first time albeit not as GM. In addition, he pretty much absconded from responsibility in the face of some tough challenges (Hunter, Santana).

 

While I am reserving judgment on Terry Ryan, I strongly believe that some changes need to be made in this organization. It is stale, stale, stale. I'd prefer a new manager but if nothing else, there needs to be some changes in the coaching staff. Just like there needs to be changes in the front office.

 

This franchise is starving for some new leadership, energy and ideas.

 

At the beginning of the year, this team shouldn't have approached the futility we are seeing, but lets look at this:

 

Position players in total are outperforming hopes and expectations: healthy Mauer, healthy Morneau, healthy Span (concussion wise), Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, even Butera. Hard to argue against these decisions.

 

Bullpen is, at the worst, doing what was expected. Not the league worst, fairly effective, even very good at times.

 

Starting staff decimated by injuries and playing below expectations. Look at the opening day starting five:

Pavano - if he only pitched at the same level he pitched last year, missed a lot of time due to injury (how long did he pitch hurt?).

Baker - Out for season, injury.

Liriano - 1st half was disaster, pitched better over last 8 starts with the team (couldn't even match last year's terrible numbers)

Blackburn - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (again, couldn't match last year's numbers)

Marquis - Unmitigated disaster, should have been more effective (how much did missing Spring Training mess with him? Look at him now)

 

If these five had pitched to the levels they were supposed to how many more wins would the Twins have? Ten is probably a conservative number. Add ten wins and subtract ten losses, what do you have? A .500 team. I guarantee you nobody around here would be complaining about .500 after last year. The Twins banked on these guys maintaining and being healthy. Virtually everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

 

Why is everybody ignoring the fact that this team has been about .500 since May? The sample size is large enough that you don't write it off. This is currently an average team that needs to improve it's starting pitching. But yet you say fire everybody and start over...

 

How many IFS does it take to get to .500?

 

I don't know how you can spin something positive out of the worst record in the AL, and the 2nd highest ERA in the Majors.

 

You're right on your previous post, I did lump you in with the "fire everybody" crowd. For that I apologize. I don't believe making major changes to admin will have the desired effect you are looking for. The Twins have a very defined set of rules concerning payroll and budgets. I believe the admin currently in place is among the best suited for this environment.

 

As for the IFS, I am not saying "if these 15 things happened, where would we be". I am saying that the injuries to the starting pitching are making the Twins look worse then they really are. Heck, a healthy Baker alone is probably worth 6-7 more wins for this team (not WAR, as many of our pitchers are not average).

 

You see change and new blood needed for this team to be competitve, I see 2 decent starting pitchers and what we currently have to maintain what they've done. That's not major change.

[Guest USAFChief]

I have no idea why this puts a "gleam in Antony's eye." I'd wager you wouldn't be able to find another team in as bad of shape as far as SP-prospects-coming-up as the Twins are. They are basically ridiculed for their draft this year on that front as well, as pretty much every Pitching prospect they drafted early (except Berrios) profiled as a RP.

 

All these guys have questions.

 

Berrios - just was drafted, do you really know what you have after the ~40 IP he'll throw in rookie leagues this year?

Gibson - Looks good so far on his comeback, but can he keep it up?

Hendriks - Love this guy, but will he figure out the Majors? I think he will, but he's a poor-mans Radke.

Hernandez - At least in my view, a guy viewed as a #5 would never put a "gleam" in my eye.

Vasquez - He's 28. His last 10 starts mean about the same to me as giving P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, and Sam Deduno opportunities this year. You go to him because you don't have any other options.

 

There's only 1 spot in this rotation spoken for next year, with Scott Diamond. And I agree with Mackey for once, lets not get carried away with what we think Diamond is. It's those Free Agent Starting Pitchers this offseason that should put a "gleam" in Antony's eye, not anybody that's already here.

 

+1.

 

"Gleam in the eye?" If this is the best list an organization can point to in a season with starting pitching this disastrous--an 18 yr old with a 2 month resume, a guy a yr removed from TJ, one semi-legit AAA guy who can't even seem to crack THIS major league rotation, a guy who "might be" a #5 someday, and a 28 yr old--you should be looking to poke yourself in the eye with a sharp stick, rather than pretending this represents some sort of near term or long term fix.

[Riverbrian]

I have no idea why this puts a "gleam in Antony's eye." I'd wager you wouldn't be able to find another team in as bad of shape as far as SP-prospects-coming-up as the Twins are. They are basically ridiculed for their draft this year on that front as well, as pretty much every Pitching prospect they drafted early (except Berrios) profiled as a RP.

 

All these guys have questions.

 

Berrios - just was drafted, do you really know what you have after the ~40 IP he'll throw in rookie leagues this year?

Gibson - Looks good so far on his comeback, but can he keep it up?

Hendriks - Love this guy, but will he figure out the Majors? I think he will, but he's a poor-mans Radke.

Hernandez - At least in my view, a guy viewed as a #5 would never put a "gleam" in my eye.

Vasquez - He's 28. His last 10 starts mean about the same to me as giving P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, and Sam Deduno opportunities this year. You go to him because you don't have any other options.

 

There's only 1 spot in this rotation spoken for next year, with Scott Diamond. And I agree with Mackey for once, lets not get carried away with what we think Diamond is. It's those Free Agent Starting Pitchers this offseason that should put a "gleam" in Antony's eye, not anybody that's already here.

 

+1.

 

"Gleam in the eye?" If this is the best list an organization can point to in a season with starting pitching this disastrous--an 18 yr old with a 2 month resume, a guy a yr removed from TJ, one semi-legit AAA guy who can't even seem to crack THIS major league rotation, a guy who "might be" a #5 someday, and a 28 yr old--you should be looking to poke yourself in the eye with a sharp stick, rather than pretending this represents some sort of near term or long term fix.

 

Anyone else notice that Antony is becoming more quoted... Interviewed... Hadent noticed a lot of Antony material this year until recently. Maybe I missed some stuff.

[twinsnorth49]

I have no idea why this puts a "gleam in Antony's eye." I'd wager you wouldn't be able to find another team in as bad of shape as far as SP-prospects-coming-up as the Twins are. They are basically ridiculed for their draft this year on that front as well, as pretty much every Pitching prospect they drafted early (except Berrios) profiled as a RP.

 

All these guys have questions.

 

Berrios - just was drafted, do you really know what you have after the ~40 IP he'll throw in rookie leagues this year?

Gibson - Looks good so far on his comeback, but can he keep it up?

Hendriks - Love this guy, but will he figure out the Majors? I think he will, but he's a poor-mans Radke.

Hernandez - At least in my view, a guy viewed as a #5 would never put a "gleam" in my eye.

Vasquez - He's 28. His last 10 starts mean about the same to me as giving P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, and Sam Deduno opportunities this year. You go to him because you don't have any other options.

 

There's only 1 spot in this rotation spoken for next year, with Scott Diamond. And I agree with Mackey for once, lets not get carried away with what we think Diamond is. It's those Free Agent Starting Pitchers this offseason that should put a "gleam" in Antony's eye, not anybody that's already here.

 

You're not really making much of a point as to why this wouldn't put a gleam in Antony's eye. Other than Vasquez and I'll give you that one, you've just stated that you don't have much of a clue how any of them will turnout.

 

No, we don't don't know for sure about Berrios at this point but is there anything to not feel good about?

 

Gibson, yeah, looks good so far, can he keep it up? Any reason to think no as opposed to yes? Not really.

 

Hendriks, ok poor man's Radke, he's only 23, if he can be a solid #4 he's young enough to keep the team in a lot of games for a few years.

 

Hernandez, how many #5 pitchers put a gleam in anybody's eye?

 

Diamond, I don't think most people are getting ahead of themselves as Mackey seems to think, he's had a great year and so far there is no reason to believe he won't continue to contribute pretty steadily.

 

This group could just as easily be viewed as promising as not, it's just too early for most of them.

[Steve Lein]

You're not really making much of a point as to why this wouldn't put a gleam in Antony's eye. Other than Vasquez and I'll give you that one, you've just stated that you don't have much of a clue how any of them will turnout.

 

No, we don't don't know for sure about Berrios at this point but is there anything to not feel good about?

 

Gibson, yeah, looks good so far, can he keep it up? Any reason to think no as opposed to yes? Not really.

 

Hendriks, ok poor man's Radke, he's only 23, if he can be a solid #4 he's young enough to keep the team in a lot of games for a few years.

 

Hernandez, how many #5 pitchers put a gleam in anybody's eye?

 

Diamond, I don't think most people are getting ahead of themselves as Mackey seems to think, he's had a great year and so far there is no reason to believe he won't continue to contribute pretty steadily.

 

This group could just as easily be viewed as promising as not, it's just too early for most of them.

 

The POINT, is Antony is making it sound like we have some super-awesome-young-core-nucleus of Starting Pitching that is going to turn the Twins fortunes around sooner rather than later, and that's not even close to the truth. They don't even have a core-nucleus of Starting Pitching to form a rotation next year.

 

Then there's the fact that if every other team in baseball put together a list of 5 starting pitchers that put a "gleam" in their GM or Assistant GM's eye, that this list would get laughed at by 90% of them.

 

As for your comments on each guy:

 

Berrios: Sure, he can get a gleam for what he's doing now in the Rookie Leagues, but how does that help the Twins?

Gibson: You basically said the same thing I did.

Hendriks: My point with the "poor mans Radke" comment is that he's not a Rotation Savior, a "poor mans Radke" certainly has value.

Hernandez: Exactly. So why is he on this list?

 

I guess I'm a glass half-empty, and you're a glass half-full guy, when it comes to this.