Article: On Lack of Pitching Youth, Eddie Rosario's Progress and Other Notes

[yarnivek1972]

 

Love Hildenberger. Reminds me a lot of Pat Neshek. And his numbers in the minors are better than Neshek's were.

 

I think Hildenberger is a guy that can help at the MLB level as well.  Minor league numbers better than Neshek's?  As Ob-Wan Kenobi said, "what you say is true, from a certain point of view".  Some are, some are not.

 

First, Hildenberger is already a year older than Neshek was when he made his MLB debut.  And Neshek stuck.  He didn't ride the shuttle back and forth to Rochester once he made it up.

 

In 2006 in AAA, Neshek was used as an "old school" closer.  By that I mean he often came into the game in the 8th and a couple times in the 7th, and finished the game - you're going to have to take my word for it, BR doesn't have minor league game logs prior to 2008.  But Neshek made 33 appearances in the first half of 2006 (finished 23 of them), and pitched 60 innings.  Hildenberger is being used primarily 1 IP at a time.  There's nothing wrong with that approach except that I think part of the reason why Neshek was used that way was to accelerate his development.  He essentially got a full season's worth of innings at AAA in half a season.  Of course, Neshek was more of true sidearmer.  I've never seen Hildenberger pitch, but from what I have heard he does sometimes use a "conventional" delivery.  

 

Which brings me to my second point.  Neshek obliterated AAA.  6 hits per 9, 13 K per 9.  Through 10 innings, Hildenberger has allowed 8.4 hits per 9 and "only" 10 K per 9.  Obviously far fewer IP than Neshek at the AAA level, so who is to say where his numbers will go.

 

But that brings me to my third point.  As I said, Neshek had 60 IP at AAA before getting called up.  If that is the standard the Twins use with Hildenberger, he won't be up before September.  Frankly that would be true of any of the other guys (Burdi, Melotakis, et al) as well.  I don't know that 60 IP at AAA will be the standard used by Falvey.  I suspect it will not if the Twins fall out of contention.  But if the Twins do stay in contention with the bullpen they have, Falvey would be quite justified in saying "Why change it?"

[TheLeviathan]

I've always been a bit of a fanboy of Rosario.  He provides a really tantalizing blend of defense, speed, and power.  It's awesome to see him putting it together this year.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Why would that be odd? Most people don't know what the future holds for a team, .....

I agree that most casual fans don't know what the future holds.

I mean, we don't even know what the future holds, and look how brilliant we are!

[SadMinnySportsFan]

Great read, well done.
im also perplexed by this musical chairs of scrap heap old dude's instead of bringing up these promising young guys we've a lot about.
At least Berrois is finally back!

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I think Hildenberger is a guy that can help at the MLB level as well.  Minor league numbers better than Neshek's?  As Ob-Wan Kenobi said, "what you say is true, from a certain point of view".  Some are, some are not.

 

First, Hildenberger is already a year older than Neshek was when he made his MLB debut.  And Neshek stuck.  He didn't ride the shuttle back and forth to Rochester once he made it up.

 

In 2006 in AAA, Neshek was used as an "old school" closer.  By that I mean he often came into the game in the 8th and a couple times in the 7th, and finished the game - you're going to have to take my word for it, BR doesn't have minor league game logs prior to 2008.  But Neshek made 33 appearances in the first half of 2006 (finished 23 of them), and pitched 60 innings.  Hildenberger is being used primarily 1 IP at a time.  There's nothing wrong with that approach except that I think part of the reason why Neshek was used that way was to accelerate his development.  He essentially got a full season's worth of innings at AAA in half a season.  Of course, Neshek was more of true sidearmer.  I've never seen Hildenberger pitch, but from what I have heard he does sometimes use a "conventional" delivery.  

 

Which brings me to my second point.  Neshek obliterated AAA.  6 hits per 9, 13 K per 9.  Through 10 innings, Hildenberger has allowed 8.4 hits per 9 and "only" 10 K per 9.  Obviously far fewer IP than Neshek at the AAA level, so who is to say where his numbers will go.

 

But that brings me to my third point.  As I said, Neshek had 60 IP at AAA before getting called up.  If that is the standard the Twins use with Hildenberger, he won't be up before September.  Frankly that would be true of any of the other guys (Burdi, Melotakis, et al) as well.  I don't know that 60 IP at AAA will be the standard used by Falvey.  I suspect it will not if the Twins fall out of contention.  But if the Twins do stay in contention with the bullpen they have, Falvey would be quite justified in saying "Why change it?"

 

I don't really disagree with any of this, just will point out what I see:

 

1. Hildenberger does throw one of his pitches overhand, not sure which but would guess his 4-seamer. Everything else is side-winder (not quite submariner). You can catch the differences in these videos:

 

 

 

2. Neshek was younger for the levels but these were the #'s:

 

Midwest League:

-Neshek (22) - 28 Games, 0.52 ERA, 34.1 IP, 20 H's, 11 BB, 53 K's

-Hildenberger (24) - 28 games, 0.80 ERA, 45 IP, 24 H's, 5 BB, 59 K's

 

Fort Myers:

-Neshek (22, 23) - 36 games, 2.45 ERA, 47.2 IP, 36 H's, 8 BB, 48 K's

-Hildenberger (24, 25) - 19 games, 2.54 ERA, 28.1 IP, 26 H's, 2 BB, 29 K's

 

AA:

-Neshek (22, 23, 24) - 86 games, 2.87 ERA, 125.1 IP, 110 H's, 42 BB, 138 K's

-Hildenberger (25) - 32 games, 0.70 ERA, 38.2 IP, 21 H's, 6 BB, 45 K's.

 

AAA:

-Neshek (25) - 33 games, 1.95 ERA, 60 IP, 41 H's, 14 BB's, 87 K's

-Hildenberger (26) - 9 games, 2.53 ERA, 10.2 IP, 10 H's, 3 BB's, 12 K's

 

There's really not the differences you point out until AAA, and Hildenberger has just 9 IP as you mention. Both were drafted out of college, so you can look at it as Neshek debuted in his 5th year in the system, which was also was his first year at AAA. This is Hildenberger's 4th year in the system, and he is in AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Neshek was pitching in a lower strikeout environment.  League average K/9 is 8.4 in the International League this year; in 2006, that figure was only 6.9.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

As an addendum, it's important to realize this:

 

The Twins have given 30 starts to Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Mejia, and Gibson. That's pretty reasonable given the roster going into the season. Now Berrios will be added to that group tomorrow.

 

The Twins have given one start to Nick Tepesch. One.

 

Maybe Gibson should have gotten the axe a start or two earlier but when you really examine this rotation, the front office hasn't been handing away starts to junk pitchers off the waiver wire.

Your point is really a great point. I had not really thought of this. This is a huge deviation from the past 4-5 years.