Berrios staying in the minors?

[Mike Sixel]

I should trust the FO that thought Belisle, Breslow, Tepesch, and Rucinski were good ideas?

[Blake]

 

I should trust the FO that thought Belisle, Breslow, Tepesch, and Rucinski were good ideas?

I'm going with the FO went with experienced arms because they're not sure where the organization is at in the minors. I doubt the FO is under any illusions about the players they brought it. Remember, this FO has only been in place for 8 months or so and the failures of the Twins organization is at all levels. This is not something fixed in a few months. It may very well take a couple of agonizing years.

 

I'm expecting some whole sale changes, soon, though. Heck Santana and Tonkin are gone and it's relatively early in the season.

 

On the upside, the Twins have an outfield and an infield, both of which were suspect a couple of years ago.

[drjim]

I should trust the FO that thought Belisle, Breslow, Tepesch, and Rucinski were good ideas?

Belisle is a fine complaint, but those last 2 were minor league depth signings thrust into the majors. They aren't signing better free agents for that role.

[Steve Lein]

 

Have you watched baseball in the last ten years? An awful lot of MLB hitters swing at an awful lot of pitches not in the strike zone.

 

So, you don't think there is a difference in MLB to AAA in this? (FYI - there is, and quite a big one at that)

[Lefty74]

It is likely that the new FO has added some analytical software that allows them to better predict Berrios MLB vs AAA performance. The fact that Molitor and others keep bringing up command means someone in FO is digging deep in this area. Intuitively we all know that MLB hitters miss far fewer fat pitches than AAA hitters--I believe the FO has a metric on the ERA difference based upon his command. They'd rather bring in a journeyman who isn't integral to long term plans than rush Berrios if he's not able to have at least solid success. I trust the FO on this one.

[Linus]

So they have to polish Berrios to perfection but Mejia can throw it all over the place? The Twins are over thinking this one unless this really is about service time which I hope it isnt.

[yarnivek1972]

It is likely that the new FO has added some analytical software that allows them to better predict Berrios MLB vs AAA performance. The fact that Molitor and others keep bringing up command means someone in FO is digging deep in this area. Intuitively we all know that MLB hitters miss far fewer fat pitches than AAA hitters--I believe the FO has a metric on the ERA difference based upon his command. They'd rather bring in a journeyman who isn't integral to long term plans than rush Berrios if he's not able to have at least solid success. I trust the FO on this one.

I don't know about digging, but they certainly seem to be piling it up plenty deep. The best hitters in the world get themselves out 70% of the time. I personally find it difficult to believe that Berrios' command is so bad that he wouldn't be one of the 5 best starters on the team right now.

 

I see no reason to "trust the FO". Trust has to be earned. None of the pitchers they chose to bring in has done much. That calls their evaluation of any pitcher into question IMO.

[drjim]

 

II personally find it difficult to believe that Berrios' command is so bad that he wouldn't be one of the 5 best starters on the team right now.

 

He is very likely one of the 5 best starters on the team, I don't think even the front office would disagree. That's not the primary concern or reasoning behind the decision.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He is very likely one of the 5 best starters on the team, I don't think even the front office would disagree. That's not the primary concern or reasoning behind the decision.

 

You know this how? I mean, we don't know what their assessments are, or their plans are.

[drjim]

 

You know this how? I mean, we don't know what their assessments are, or their plans are.

 

I'm naive enough to more or less believe what they say publicly.

 

They want this call up to be the last one. The thing he needs to tighten up is his command. Both statements are very reasonable.

[drjim]

But I think they are now boxed into a position where they have to call him up even if they don't want to do so quite yet. There are no other options.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm naive enough to more or less believe what they say publicly.

 

They want this call up to be the last one. The thing he needs to tighten up is his command. Both statements are very reasonable.

 

Ah, I missed any talk of them admitting he was one of the 5 best pitchers right now. That's what I get for only coming to TD for news, and even then not clicking every link.

[yarnivek1972]

He is very likely one of the 5 best starters on the team, I don't think even the front office would disagree. That's not the primary concern or reasoning behind the decision.

Then we are back to a lack of clear direction again. If the FO thinks he is one of their 5 best starters, don't you have to call him up if you believe you are contending?

 

But if you believe you are not contending and you truly believe that bringing Berrios up now does more harm than good, why send Gibson down? As you said, there is almost no one to bring up other than Berrios.

 

That is why I am not willing to blindly accept what the FO is saying. They are talking out of both sides of their mouths.

[drjim]

 

Ah, I missed any talk of them admitting he was one of the 5 best pitchers right now. That's what I get for only coming to TD for news, and even then not clicking every link.

 

They didn't literally say that of course. But they also haven't said he isn't one of the five best.

 

The front office isn't infallible, but they aren't idiots either. They know the talent Berrios has. But they also want to make sure he is ready to succeed when he is called up again.

 

People, rightly or wrongly, complain all the time about good prospects bouncing up and down. Seems to me they are trying really hard to avoid that with Berrios.

[drjim]

 

Then we are back to a lack of clear direction again. If the FO thinks he is one of their 5 best starters, don't you have to call him up if you believe you are contending?

But if you believe you are not contending and you truly believe that bringing Berrios up now does more harm than good, why send Gibson down? As you said, there is almost no one to bring up other than Berrios.

That is why I am not willing to blindly accept what the FO is saying. They are talking out of both sides of their mouths.

 

It seems to me they are trying to remain competitive while also developing their best assets. It doesn't necessarily have to be either/or.

 

I suspect they absolutely didn't want to send Gibson down, but he left them with no choice.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It seems to me they are trying to remain competitive while also developing their best assets. It doesn't necessarily have to be either/or.

 

I suspect they absolutely didn't want to send Gibson down, but he left them with no choice.

 

Working the middle strategy rarely works all that well, or quickly. In every business.

[Dantes929]

 

A lot of those strikes are swinging strikes that fool AAA hitters that mlb hitters will laugh it.

I buy the company line in the sense that it was the problem that dogged him in the bigs last year, but it is a little discouraging that it hasn't improved enough by now.

I don't like this, Tepesch does nothing for me. But if the front office has a very specific plan with very specific benchmarks, I guess I can accept it.

I agree a little.    The part I don't agree with is that you don't go from a 2.00 ERA in the high minors to an 8.00 ERA in the majors by pitching the same way.     Watching him on TV last year you could tell he was over throwing and eventually after getting advice from everyone just had no idea what he was doing.   Same thing happened with May's first try and it is similar to Buxton.    You don't hit high minors pitching like he did and then bat .054 like he did by doing the same things.    We are now getting a glimpse of why he was succeeding in the minors.    

[yarnivek1972]

It seems to me they are trying to remain competitive while also developing their best assets. It doesn't necessarily have to be either/or.

 

I suspect they absolutely didn't want to send Gibson down, but he left them with no choice.

That approach didn't work for the previous regime. My feeling is you have to be all in or all out. Like Mr. Miyagi said, "Karate do yes or karate do no. Karate do so so, squash like grape."

[drjim]

 

Working the middle strategy rarely works all that well, or quickly. In every business.

 

What makes you think they are trying to work quickly? Seems they are in it for the long haul.

 

To me it seems development is the higher priority, but I don't think they want any part of blowing it up and stripping to the studs. They've said before they don't think it is necessary to strip all the way down. (And I generally agree).

[drjim]

 

That approach didn't work for the previous regime. My feeling is you have to be all in or all out. Like Mr. Miyagi said, "Karate do yes or karate do no. Karate do so so, squash like grape."

 

What did Mr. Miyagi ever do?

 

The bigger issue is they shouldn't fully reload, they have too much young talent.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What makes you think they are trying to work quickly? Seems they are in it for the long haul.

 

To me it seems development is the higher priority, but I don't think they want any part of blowing it up and stripping to the studs. They've said before they don't think it is necessary to strip all the way down. (And I generally agree).

 

Well, Sano is here not forever. The longer it takes the less useful his time here is.

 

By quickly, I mean 2019, not this year or even next.

 

And, losing means you have a shot at Harper or Strasburg.......

 

I'm not a fan of "let's try to be respectable" as a strategy. Either try to WIN, or rebuild. Not saying I'm certainly correct, but I am hardly alone in this belief.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What did Mr. Miyagi ever do?

 

The bigger issue is they shouldn't fully reload, they have too much young talent.

 

who said fully reload? It's keeping a guy here that is only here for 1.5 more years that makes no sense, IMO.

[drjim]

 

who said fully reload? It's keeping a guy here that is only here for 1.5 more years that makes no sense, IMO.

 

I agree with the second point, but Santana has 2.5 more years (if you count the option), and Dozier might (should) get extended. No one else that would potentially be traded is going to matter.

 

So I say keep Santana and Dozier, or trade them both. But the window is starting to open.

[drjim]

 

Well, Sano is here not forever. The longer it takes the less useful his time here is.

 

By quickly, I mean 2019, not this year or even next.

 

And, losing means you have a shot at Harper or Strasburg.......

 

I'm not a fan of "let's try to be respectable" as a strategy. Either try to WIN, or rebuild. Not saying I'm certainly correct, but I am hardly alone in this belief.

 

They're too good, even if they trade all the non-young players, to lose enough to get a top pick next year. So that ship has sailed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They're too good, even if they trade all the non-young players, to lose enough to get a top pick next year. So that ship has sailed.

 

Probably true, but picking 8th would be better than 14th.....and that's not really the point.

 

the point is, I prefer trying to rebuild and admitting it to yourself, than trying to be not the worst team while doing so.

[drjim]

 

Probably true, but picking 8th would be better than 14th.....and that's not really the point.

 

the point is, I prefer trying to rebuild and admitting it to yourself, than trying to be not the worst team while doing so.

 

I think you are underestimating the position this team is in. They have a legit emerging offensive core that is still not near its potential ceiling. This is going well beyond just trying not to be the worst team.

 

I'm not sure they want to just push it back 2-3 years, they can hang around THIS season, and be quite competitive as early as next season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you are underestimating the position this team is in. They have a legit emerging offensive core that is still not near its potential ceiling. This is going well beyond just trying not to be the worst team.

 

I'm not sure they want to just push it back 2-3 years, they can hang around THIS season, and be quite competitive as early as next season.

 

with what pitching? they have 1 SP right now they can count on. 1. 

 

Oh, and the bullpen is not good either.

[drjim]

with what pitching? they have 1 SP right now they can count on. 1.

 

Oh, and the bullpen is not good either.

So the solution is to trade that pitcher away?

 

And while the pitching is not good, they have some pieces to work with and evaluate and some money to play with (and a representative free agent class). I hope they're a little more aggressive this offseason.

 

And while the farm system is down a little, they should have a little pitching depth emerge over the next 2 years.

 

Having a good offensive core is much harder to put in place.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So the solution is to trade that pitcher away?

And while the pitching is not good, they have some pieces to work with and evaluate and some money to play with (and a representative free agent class). I hope they're a little more aggressive this offseason.

And while the farm system is down a little, they should have a little pitching depth emerge over the next 2 years.

Having a good offensive core is much harder to put in place.

 

I think we just disagree on how close/much pitching they have right now.

 

Literally not 1 pitcher has come up from the minors this year, and I'm not sure more than 1-2 did last year that are on this year's roster. They just don't have much pitching. Even when the finally call up Berrios, it won't be his first year. 

 

and yes, sometimes you have to take a step backward to go forward / around a barrier. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

So the solution is to trade that pitcher away?

And while the pitching is not good, they have some pieces to work with and evaluate and some money to play with (and a representative free agent class). I hope they're a little more aggressive this offseason.

And while the farm system is down a little, they should have a little pitching depth emerge over the next 2 years.

Having a good offensive core is much harder to put in place.

 

 

This I strongly disagree with.  As evidenced but the results we have seen on the field, the Twins (at least) have struggled putting together a pitching staff.  They had a solid offensive core in the mid 90s with Cordova, Becker, Knoblauch (before he was traded), Todd Walker, and Matt Lawton.  But the pitching was terrible.  They had a solid offensive core with Koskie, Guzman, Hunter, Jones, and Pierzynski but had to trade Lawton to get a starting pitcher and two of the pitchers they had were from other organizations.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.  If you don't have it, you're toast.  Because it is hard to get it.  If you don't have it, you find your team overpaying for guys like Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco and over-rewarding a guy like Phil Hughes.