Shohei Otani

nicksaviking · April 11, 2017

Again, that's on the bonus to get him into your organization.

He will be on an MLB roster quickly, if not immediately. At that point he has an MLB contract and the "only can sign a minor league contract" point is moot. Where does it say that he can't sign an extension until he's 25? That is not mentioned anywhere, and seems like a pretty big omission to me, as well as an easy loophole to exploit and leverage.

If there wasn't language prohibiting that then I'd think teams would have been doing this all along instead of paying the player and then paying the same amount in penalties to the league for blowing past their international cash allotment. With how tight MLB owners are, I can't see them paying the 100% penalty if there had always been a cheaper loophole to manipulate.

Willihammer · April 11, 2017

The other thing to keep in mind is that teams who blew through their spending cap in the 2015-2016 IFA market will be limited to $300k bonuses in the 2017-2018 period. This includes:

The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals will be in their second year of the penalty, while the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres and Reds will be in their first penalty year.

drjim · April 11, 2017

If there wasn't language prohibiting that then I'd think teams would have been doing this all along instead of paying the player and then paying the same amount in penalties to the league for blowing past their international cash allotment. With how tight MLB owners are, I can't see them paying the 100% penalty if there had always been a cheaper loophole to manipulate.

There was chatter about that, the response that the league office would crack down hard on an agreement that involved a quick extension.

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

In answer to what will decide, if not money in the first year.....

Location, since he is Japanese, he might prefer a WC city, or NY, I'd guess.

Contention....I can't speak for him, but I'd rather play for a contender

Ability to make money on endorsements

Possibly a place where other Japanese are, or have succeeded in the past.

Hence my prediction of LAD, NYY, Seattle, TX.

Thrylos · April 11, 2017

An international guy who signs before age 25 can only sign a minor league contract.

This is incorrect. They usually sign them (have been signing them) to minor league contracts, but there is not a place that says that you cannot sign him to a major league contact.

Steve Lein · April 11, 2017

There was chatter about that, the response that the league office would crack down hard on an agreement that involved a quick extension.

Okay, so is this why the articles point out that it's screwing over all the young players from Latin America and elsewhere?

They're basically saying it's okay for a domestic player to get an MLB contract extension after say, six games in the majors (like Evan Longoria), but not for them?

Do you see why this is dumb and why I point out the lack of clarity?

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

Okay, so is this why the articles point out that it's screwing over all the young players from Latin America and elsewhere?

They're basically saying it's okay for a domestic player to get an MLB contract extension after say, six games in the majors (like Evan Longoria), but not for them?

Do you see why this is dumb and why I bring it up?

It is dumb. Limiting the wages of someone to save money for billionaires is inherently dumb. yes.

Willihammer · April 11, 2017

In answer to what will decide, if not money in the first year.....

Location, since he is Japanese, he might prefer a WC city, or NY, I'd guess.
Contention....I can't speak for him, but I'd rather play for a contender
Ability to make money on endorsements
Possibly a place where other Japanese are, or have succeeded in the past.

Hence my prediction of LAD, NYY, Seattle, TX.

Yeah, I agree they'll factor into his equation probably. But they don't close the ~$200m gap between his IFA bonus and what he's worth.

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

Yeah, I agree they'll factor into his equation probably. But they don't close the ~$200m gap between his IFA bonus and what he's worth.

quite true. It's why everyone but thrylos thought he would wait another couple years....

drjim · April 11, 2017

Okay, so is this why the articles point out that it's screwing over all the young players from Latin America and elsewhere?

They're basically saying it's okay for a domestic player to get an MLB contract extension after say, six games in the majors (like Evan Longoria), but not for them?

Do you see why this is dumb and why I point out the lack of clarity?

I agree it is dumb.

drjim · April 11, 2017

This is incorrect. They usually sign them (have been signing them) to minor league contracts, but there is not a place that says that you cannot sign him to a major league contact.

The new cba says teams cannot sign players under 25 to mlb contracts.

Steve Lein · April 11, 2017

The new cba says teams cannot sign players under 25 to mlb contracts.

Does this then include extensions?

If it does, this will hurt a team with a young superstar more than it helps...

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

Does this then include extensions?

If it does, this will hurt a team with a young superstar more than it helps...

No, players can be extended.

What it excludes is attempts to get around the IFA maximums. At least that is what every website says.

Willihammer · April 11, 2017

How would a team go about promising an extension legally?

Would a promise to extend at more money later break the Joe Smith rule?

Vanimal46 · April 11, 2017

How would a team go about promising an extension legally?
Would a promise to extend at more money later break the Joe Smith rule?

Certainly sounds like it. "Hey Shohei, sign this reasonable contract now.... and, wink wink, we'll tear it up 6 months from now and pay you $200 MM"

There would be a big uproar from the league if that happened.

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

How would a team go about promising an extension legally?
Would a promise to extend at more money later break the Joe Smith rule?

The commissioner has been quoted as saying he will be unhappy if that happens, or something like that.....I'm guessing they'd come down hard. Or not, it is baseball.

drjim · April 11, 2017

Hard to believe putting arbitrary caps would lead to problems.

Willihammer · April 11, 2017

Or maybe,

"checkout this 7 bedroom house on Lake Minnetonka- the team's willing to let you stay here on a 2 year lease for $100/month. The 6 car garage has a Ducati and a Hummer and jet skis. There's a $100,000 gift card to Fuji-ya sushi in the kitchen somewhere. Oh and I think the red phone over there is a direct line to the team's 24/7 on call 'masseuse.'"

Whatever the NY/BOS/LAD equivalent of that is.

Steve Lein · April 11, 2017

No, players can be extended.

What it excludes is attempts to get around the IFA maximums. At least that is what every website says.

I've read in a few articles that exceptions are capable of being made in a player like Ohani's case. Even that it might be likely because the rule isn't intended to stop what he is, a player universally touted as an MLB-caliber, and quite possibly one of the world's best right now.

From what I can tell it's intended to stop big-spending teams from securing a young prospect's rights by offering them what other teams around the league can't (more money).

Yoan Moncada, as an example, still spent 2 years in the minors before making his debut. So he was not deemed MLB ready when signed, and none of the 16-year-old Latin players that are signed would be either.

These are the types of signings they are trying to curb with the rule, not someone like Ohani.

Mike Sixel · April 11, 2017

I've read in a few articles that exceptions are capable of being made in a player like Ohani's case. Even that it might be likely because the rule isn't intended to stop what he is, a player universally touted as an MLB-caliber, and quite possibly one of the world's best right now.

From what I can tell it's intended to stop big-spending teams from securing a young prospect's rights by offering them what other teams around the league can't (more money).

Yoan Moncada, as an example, still spent 2 years in the minors before making his debut. So he was not deemed MLB ready when signed, and none of the 16-year-old Latin players that are signed would be either.

These are the types of signings they are trying to curb with the rule, not someone like Ohani.

They've been clearly quoted as saying "no otani exceptions"...

Not sure it matters, he certainly won't be coming here.

Thrylos · April 11, 2017

The new cba says teams cannot sign players under 25 to mlb contracts.

Look at the Twins roster and tell me how many players under 25 are signed to mlb contracts... You play in the MLB, you have an mlb contract.

drjim · April 11, 2017

Look at the Twins roster and tell me how many players under 25 are signed to mlb contracts... You play in the MLB, you have an mlb contract.

Dropping truth bombs

Bark's Lounge · April 11, 2017

I think the best thing for Otani is to stay in Japan until he is 25. It's all too complicated if he tries to force his teams hand in the next offseason. He won't be circumventing any MLB rules.

Plus, this way he can prove himself more at the plate. I believe what I hear about his talent as a batter, but he has had one season with 300PA's (a very great season) and he is off to a tremendous start this year.

I am sure MLB teams fawn over him as a pitcher way, way more than they do as a hitter. If he waits, I think he will have a much better chance to live out his dream as a starting pitcher and hitter. As a pitcher he is MLB ready and would be an impact player on any team right away.

If his arm holds up, this young fella is going to be swimming in a sea of U.S. Dollar bills.

drjim · April 11, 2017

He's signing as a pitcher.

Bark's Lounge · April 11, 2017

He's signing as a pitcher.

I agree. If some team let's him bat he will never be anything other than a PH or DH. It will be too big of an investment to ever take the risk of having him throw a baseball other than pitching.

Steve Lein · April 11, 2017

They've been clearly quoted as saying "no otani exceptions"...

Not sure it matters, he certainly won't be coming here.

This is one instance I read, doesn't sound likely but also isn't "no otani exceptions": http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/12/02/the-new-cba-the-cubs-and-the-shohei-otani-problem/

I don't think he would, either. But that's why this is in the "other baseball" forum

diehardtwinsfan · April 12, 2017

These are the types of signings they are trying to curb with the rule, not someone like Ohani.

Honestly, I'm not so sure. The problem with a signing like Otani is a competitive balance issue, which is something that all MLB has to deal with. Yes, it's a convenient way of saving the owners millions, but it is a real problem where teams like NY, LA, and CHI can simply print money and get that potential superstar at the expense of teams like KC and Pit.

I'm not arguing that the rule doesn't suck for Otani, but I do think it's there for more than just saving the owners a few dollars.

diehardtwinsfan · April 12, 2017

This is one instance I read, doesn't sound likely but also isn't "no otani exceptions": http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/12/02/the-new-cba-the-cubs-and-the-shohei-otani-problem/

I don't think he would, either. But that's why this is in the "other baseball" forum

The work around is likely a lawsuit over anti-trust violations... that would be my guess. He could sue MLB... no idea on the legality of it and whether or not it would work, but if I was his agent, I'd be exploring that thoroughly.

Pardon My Dinger · April 12, 2017

Man, I just watched three minutes of his 2016 highlight reel on YouTube, before it got so silly, I just had to stop.

This kid's stuff is ridiculous. That forkball? It looks like a fastball out of the hand. Thirty feet later, it's on the ground and the batter's shoes and helmet have fallen off.

It would be beyond interesting to see him on an AL team, pitching and DH-ing. Not sure how likely it is he'll be given a ton of at bats, though.

Every team in baseball will place a bid. If your team doesn't try to get him, your team is dumb. If your team signs him, your team is probably the New York Yankees.

Pardon My Dinger · April 12, 2017

I know the chances are slim, but good god almighty, I hope Falvine takes a big swing on this. Shohei would be exactly what we need to turn the corner. Once in a lifetime opportunity, really.

I do not think this kid will be a bust. Watch some video. That s--word is filthy stanky sexy cool.